SAG OFFICIAL SAYS PUBLIC CRITICISM OF MUGABE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 003213 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S S. HILL E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2017 TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM ZI SF SUBJECT: SAG OFFICIAL SAYS PUBLIC CRITICISM OF MUGABE UNHELPFUL REF: A. LUSAKA 945 ¶B. PRETORIA 136 ¶C. HARARE 821 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. The South African Government is "making progress" in the facilitation talks between ZANU-PF and MDC, but recognizes that the process will not be easy, according to DFA Chief Director (DAS-level) Tselane Mokuena. Mokuena acknowledged that political and economic reforms in Zimbabwe go hand in hand. Repeating familiar South African Government themes on Zimbabwe, Mokuena stressed that the Zimbabweans themselves must solve their problems and argued that public pressure on Mugabe is not effective. END SUMMARY. -------------- SADC Facilitation -------------- ¶2. (C) Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) Chief Director for Southern Africa (DAS-level) Tselane Mokuena told PolOff September 7 that South Africa is "making progress" in the Zimbabwe talks between ZANU-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). As President Mbeki has stated repeatedly, the SAG goal is to create a level playing field for free and fair elections in 2008. President Mbeki reported to his SADC colleagues in Lusaka that the discussions were still in their "early stages," Mokuena said. Mbeki did not provide SADC a detailed readout of the facilitation efforts (ref A). ¶3. (C) The facilitation will not be an easy process, Mokuena observed, stressing that South Africa can only "facilitate" -- not "mediate." It is up to the Zimbabweans themselves to solve their own problems. Mokuena cited, as an example of the difficulties ahead in the talks, the MDC demand that the GOZ repeal repressive legislation such as the Public Order and Security Act (POSA) and Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA),reforms the GOZ will strongly resist. ¶4. (C) On the SADC economic report on Zimbabwe, Mokuena said that "everyone knows" you cannot have economic reform without political reform. Even though there is no formal linkage between the two SADC processes, they necessarily go hand in hand. ¶5. (C) Mokuena also noted that the South African Presidency is taking the lead on the facilitation efforts, with DFA only providing technical support. Minister Sydney Mufamadi is the point person for the talks (ref B). -------------- Pressure Won't Work -------------- ¶6. (C) Asked about "plan B" if Mugabe does not agree to reform in advance of the March 2008 elections, Mokuena smiled and said "all we can do is keep the Zimbabweans talking." South Africa respects Zimbabwe's "sovereignty," and cannot impose its will on another government, even "if we do not agree with their actions." ¶7. (C) South Africa does not believe that public criticism of Mugabe is effective, Mokuena stressed. "Bob does not respond to pressure." When PolOff noted that quiet diplomacy has not been particularly effective either, Mokuena responded: "you've tried public shouting, and we've tried our approach; neither has worked." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) While Mokuena is not directly involved in the SADC facilitation process, she is influential and generally reflects South African Government thinking on Zimbabwe. As we have reported (ref B),we believe South Africa is frustrated with Mugabe and wants to see him turn over power PRETORIA 00003213 002 OF 002 to a new ZANU-PF government, but Pretoria is unwilling -- and to a certain extent unable -- to apply the necessary pressure to get Mugabe out of office. The SAG continues to believe that public pressure on Mugabe will be counterproductive. While the SAG is encouraged by the recent progress in the SADC facilitation talks (ref C),they are also realistic about Mugabe's true intentions and the challenges ahead. Bost