TREVOR NCUBE FLOATS "THIRD WAY"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 003075 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S S. HILL HARARE FOR G. WARREN E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2017 TAGS: PREL KDEM SF ZI SUBJECT: TREVOR NCUBE FLOATS "THIRD WAY" REF: A. PRETORIA 14 ¶B. 2005 HARARE 1420 PRETORIA 00003075 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. South African-based publisher and Mugabe opponent Trevor Ncube believes that Zimbabwe needs a "third way" political force to take the country forward. Ncube is thoroughly disgusted with both the ruling ZANU-PF and the MDC opposition. Strive Masiyiwa, Nkosana Moyo, or Simba Makoni could lead the "third way," Ncube suggested, although none of them has bought into the idea. Ncube called for a more "nuanced" Western approach to ZANU-PF, arguing that moderates in the party, like "progressive" Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono, should be supported, not isolated. According to Ncube, Mugabe remains firmly in control, and is running rings around South African President Mbeki and his "facilitation" effort. END SUMMARY. -------------- "Third Way" is Ideal -------------- ¶2. (C) Prominent Zimbabwean publisher and long-time Mugabe opponent Trevor Ncube told PolOff August 30 that the "ideal" political solution in Zimbabwe is a "third way" political movement winning the upcoming election. The "third way" would draw support from the best of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC),ruling ZANU-PF, civil society, and the diaspora. Ncube said his ideal candidates to lead the movement -- Strive Masiyiwa, Nkosana Moyo, Simba Makoni -- have not themselves bought into the idea. Masiyiwa and Moyo believe in a two-step transition, with MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai taking power, then a technocratic regime coming in SIPDIS later to "clean up the mess." Makoni still hopes change would come from within ZANU-PF. ¶3. (C) In addition to Masiyiwa, Moyo and Makoni, Ncube mentioned Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono, whom he called "progressive." Gono has managed to keep Mugabe's trust, maintain ties to both MDC factions, and build a constituency in the military -- an impressive achievement. Welshman Ncube, Secretary General of the MDC Mutambara faction, is extremely bright, according to Trevor Ncube, but is not a politician. Jonathan Moyo is also intelligent and hard-working, but is tainted by his links to the Mugabe regime. Asked about Arthur Mutambara, Ncube waved his hand, saying Mutambara had been a "major disappointment;" "Arthur's time has passed." (NOTE: Ncube's "third way" idea smacks of Jonathan Moyo's earlier efforts to assemble a "third force" (ref B). IDASA analyst Sydney Masamvu (protect) said he believes that Moyo and Ncube are working together on the current initiative. END NOTE.) -------------- MDC Rule a "Nightmare" -------------- ¶4. (C) Ncube has come around to the "third way" plan after becoming thoroughly disgusted with the MDC. Ncube said he initially supported Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC -- even giving them a financial contribution -- but believes the party has "poor quality leadership," has tribalist and violent tendencies, and has not offered a vision for the future of Zimbabwe. Ncube says he has "nightmares" about the MDC taking over Zimbabwe. -------------- Need for Nuanced Western Policy -------------- ¶5. (C) Ncube also criticized Western policy toward Zimbabwe, arguing that the West needed a "more nuanced" approach to ZANU-PF. There are "progressives" and "liberals" in ZANU-PF, and "we need to win them over." Instead, Western sanctions have painted the entire ZANU-PF leadership as "bad guys," isolating and punishing them. This strategy has pushed the entire ZANU-PF leadership into a corner, where they are forced to join with Mugabe to fight their way out. -------------- Understanding Mugabe -------------- PRETORIA 00003075 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Turning to the SADC initiative, Ncube said that Mugabe is "running circles around Mbeki and the region." When all is said and done, "we will end up where we started." Mbeki does not know how to deal with Mugabe, despite years of practice. Ncube believes that Mugabe was much weaker six or nine months ago, but has emerged again "boss" following the "pathetic" SADC summit in Lusaka. ¶7. (C) Ncube also said that the West underestimates Mugabe's continued appeal to many Zimbabweans. He is a heroic struggle figure who fought the colonial powers, and is the founding father of the country. Even if he has done wrong, "you do not reject your father." Mugabe "believes everything he says," even what sounds like propaganda to us. Mugabe honestly thinks he is "doing the right thing" for the country. Threats will not work with Mugabe. Instead, Mugabe must believe he is the one choosing his departure date. "We must find a way for Mugabe to step down without losing face." There is a growing consensus in Zimbabwe that Mugabe should not be punished for his crimes, and instead left in peace. Western threats about the International Criminal Court are not useful. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Like a number of other prominent Zimbabwe exiled businessmen in South Africa, Trevor Ncube continues to play an influential, behind-the-scenes role in the Zimbabwe policy debate. Ncube's position as publisher/owner of the Zimbabwean independent weeklies, The Standard and Independent, which are critical of the government, as well as his position as publisher of the well-respected South African Mail & Guardian, gives him added leverage to pursue his agenda. While we cannot comment on the viability -- or advisability -- of his "third way" political plan, we believe Ncube will continue to push it aggressively. Ncube is connected, sharp and ambitious, and we suspect he envisions a role for himself in such a "third way" regime. Teitelbaum