ANC SUCCESSION STILL UP IN AIR

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 002937 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR SF SUBJECT: ANC SUCCESSION STILL UP IN AIR REF: PRETORIA 2370 Classified By: Charges d'Affaires Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(b) an d (d). ¶1. (C) Exactly four months before the ANC elects its new President, the race remains largely undecided. ANC insider Dr. Fazel Randera told PolOff on 17 August that though everyone seems to have a theory, he is uncertain who will prevail in December. Randera argued that, "the days of backroom deals like what happened when Mbeki became President are gone," implying that delegates could play a much more important role than in the past. He also mentioned that the ANC would know more after provincial nominations, which are due to the ANC by September 20th, start coming in. The one thing about which Randera is certain is that if Mbeki or Zuma were to win, the ANC would be left bitterly divided. ¶2. (C) Randera believes that Zuma would win the election for ANC President "hands down if the election were held today." However, he is surprised that Zuma is still in the race. During the ANC policy conference in June (reftel),Randera was under the impression that a deal was going to be struck with Zuma to give him kingmaking powers in exchange for his withdrawal. Zuma's constant campaigning since the conference, however, makes Randera believe that Zuma still sees himself as a viable candidate. Though Randera acknowledges that Zuma has some great qualities, including being "a great diplomat," he does not believe that Zuma is the best man for the job. Randera then cautioned that if Zuma were prevented from running against his own wishes, political violence could ensue. (NOTE: Post does not know whether Zuma was ever offered a deal. END NOTE) ¶3. (C) Randera commented that during the policy conference, there was an implied understanding among delegates that "South Africa PTY, LTD" was also not necessarily the best thing for South Africa right now. (COMMENT: Randera was likely referring to many ANC members' level of discomfort with the uneven distribution of economic benefits in the country. END COMMENT) He does not believe that Mbeki is running or has a chance of winning the ANC presidency again. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that another ANC insider had told him the day before that the ANC had "it all worked out: Mbeki will stay on as ANC President and Tokyo Sexwale will become the next South African President." Moeletsi Mbeki, President Mbeki's estranged brother, also told PolOff on 21 August that though he does not know for certain who will win the ANC presidency in December, his "money is on Tokyo Sexwale for South African President in 2009." When PolOff asked Randera if Sexwale had former President Mandela's backing, Randera laughed and said he did not know, but that "Tokyo is the one person who can take the piss out of Mandela." ¶4. (C) BIO NOTE: Randera was born on 19 November 1948. He is married to Professor Helen Rees and has three teenage children. He received his medical diploma from London University in 1982 and returned to South Africa in 1983, after a 17-year absence. In addition to working in the health sector as a doctor, principal investigator in clinical trials, and lecturer of family medicine, he has held several political positions. From 1995-1998, he was a Commissioner on the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. In May 2000, he was appointed Inspector General of Intelligence by President Mbeki. Press reports note that he left in January 2002, after only six months effectively on the job, because he felt he was unable to do his job objectively. Randera has worked for the Chamber of Mines as their chief Medical Advisor since February 2002. During PolOff's conversation, Randera also mentioned that he was at one time Mandela's personal physician and delivered Tokyo Sexwale's son. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Nominations for the top ANC positions may be due on 20 September, but in typical ANC fashion, it is unclear exactly when the ANC or individual provinces -- apart from pro-Mbeki Eastern Cape and pro-Zuma KwaZulu-Natal -- will reveal them publicly. Embassy contacts were saying early in the year that the public would know in September; in the spring, we were told "maybe October;" and in recent weeks, we have heard November-December is the target timeframe. END COMMENT. Teitelbaum