SOUTH AFRICA PRESSURES FNL TO JOIN JVMM FEBRUARY 10

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 000293 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017 TAGS: PREL BY SF SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA PRESSURES FNL TO JOIN JVMM FEBRUARY 10 REF: A. PRETORIA 154 ¶B. BUJUMBURA 15 Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Catherine Kay. Reasons 1.4(b ) and (d). ¶1. (C) South African Burundi Mediator Minister Charles Nqakula met Palipehutu-FNL leader Agathon Rwasa in Dar es Salaam the weekend of January 13 and pressured the FNL to join the Joint Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JVMM), according to ISS analyst Jan van Eck. Van Eck, who traveled to Dar es Salaam for the Nqakula meeting, told PolOff that Rwasa and the FNL leadership resented the "strong-arm" South African tactics, but felt they had no choice but to agree to attend the next JVMM meeting on February 10. The Government of Burundi is to release the FNL delegates assigned to the JVMM on January 27, addressing one of the major FNL objections. ¶2. (C) In the meeting with Nqakula, the FNL leadership highlighted the problem of food for their combatants, who are becoming increasingly impatient. According to van Eck, Nqakula flatly rejected the FNL request for food assistance. In van Eck's opinion, the lack of food could result in an increased instability in rural Burundi as FNL combatants "find" food themselves through road-blocks, theft, and "taxation" of peasants. To address this issue, van Eck is working with AU Burundi Special Representative Mamadou Bah to bring FNL Spokesman Pasteur Habimana to Bujumbura to meet with the GOB and JVMM. Van Eck pointed out that the GOB could provide food to the FNL combatants, as they did with the FDD, even before they enter demobilization sites. ¶3. (C) On the growing tensions within the CNDD-FDD, van Eck argued that the rebellion against Hussein Radjabu has been a "long time coming." He understands that two-thirds of the party has voted to hold a special meeting in mid-February, which would result in Radjabu's removal as party leader. Van Eck believes this could "loosen up" the political atmosphere in Burundi, which could impact positively on the FNL peace process. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: We understand from several sources that South Africa is increasingly frustrated with the slow pace of the FNL peace process. We believe Nqakula and Great Lakes Envoy Kingsley Mamabolo will intensify the pressure on the FNL to implement the September Ceasefire Agreement by joining the JVMM and moving their combatants into demobilization camps. South Africa has invested tremendous energy and resources in the Burundi peace process -- they continue to have some 850 troops in Burundi under an AU mandate -- and want to tie up the FNL "loose end." Van Eck himself remains controversial in South African circles. He has also devoted years to bringing peace to Burundi, but is so openly sympathetic to the FNL that some SAG officials view him as an impediment to peace rather than a useful liaison. END COMMENT. BOST