ANALYST OLOJEDE SAYS MBEKI REMAINS IN DRIVING SEAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 002533 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S M. TABLER-STONE E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM SF SUBJECT: ANALYST OLOJEDE SAYS MBEKI REMAINS IN DRIVING SEAT ON SUCCESSION REF: PRETORIA 2370 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. South African President Thabo Mbeki will control the ANC succession race, with either himself or his hand-picked successor elected president at the December conference, claimed Pulitizer-Prize winning journalist and political analyst Dele Olojede. Mbeki is holding his cards close to his chest, but Olojede speculates that Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka may be Mbeki's ideal choice to replace him. However, Mlambo-Ngcuka's candidacy would stir up party tensions since her husband Bulelani led the corruption investigation against ANC Deputy President Jacob Zuma. Cyril Ramaphosa is another strong candidate, but he and Mbeki are political rivals and have not yet "made peace." Other candidates, like Tokyo Sexwale, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Trevor Manuel, and Kgalema Motlanthe, all have significant drawbacks. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Businessman, journalist and political analyst Dele Olojede (see bio-note at para 8) told PolOff July 12 that he expects President Thabo Mbeki "will get what he wants" at the December ANC National Conference in Polokwane. Mbeki will either put the candidate of his choice in the office or, failing that, keep the position himself. Mbeki is a shrewd political actor, Olojede claimed, who wants someone he trusts to take over the ANC presidency in December (and country presidency in 2009) to protect his legacy. Mbeki may flip the "two centers of power" argument -- currently advanced by Mbeki's opponents to argue against another term for the president -- to contend that he should remain both party and national president at least until he leaves office following elections in 2009. ¶3. (C) The ANC will try to avoid a major blowup at the ANC National Conference, Olojede argued. The party may offer Jacob Zuma the position as national chairman or continued role as party deputy president to help him save face. Mbeki and the ANC leadership may be willing to make other concessions to the Zuma camp, including allowing Zuma to pick some senior party leaders, but will not compromise on key policy and leadership issues. Olojede believes that Zuma will never become president of the ANC or the country. �00A;¶4. (C) Asked who Mbeki wants as his successor, Olojede admitted that no one knows. Mbeki holds his cards very close to his chest, knowing that as soon as he reveals his preferred succession the "knives will be out" for that person. Olojede's suspects that Mbeki would like to chose the current Deputy President, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka. She is smart, dedicated, and committed to Mbeki's vision of South Africa. Mlambo-Ngcuka is also much more charismatic than Mbeki and other senior women ANC leaders. Her major drawback is her husband, Bulelani Ngcuka, who was head of the National Prosecuting Authority during the corruption investigation of Jacob Zuma. Picking Mlambo-Ngcuka as Mbeki's successor would be seen as a slap in the face to the Zuma camp and would stir up intra-party tensions. ¶5. (C) Businessman and former ANC negotiator Cyril Ramaphosa possesses the necessary background and attributes to lead the country, but has not yet "made peace" with President Mbeki. Olojede noted that Ramaphosa was extremely bitter when Mbeki stepped ahead of him to become South Africa's Deputy President in 1994 -- especially since Ramaphosa led the transition talks and Nelson Mandela himself wanted Ramaphosa as deputy. Ramaphosa was so annoyed by the slight that he declined to serve in the Mandela administration, and even refused to attend Mandela's inauguration. This behavior was seen as "unbecoming," "nakedly ambitious," and "very un-ANC," and continues to haunt Ramaphosa's candidacy for ANC president 13 years later. ¶6. (C) Olojede sized up some of the other possible candidates for ANC leader: -- Businessman Tokyo Sexwale has many of the right credentials, but the ANC system is such that it is very difficult for someone like Sexwale who is not on the National PRETORIA 00002533 002 OF 002 Executive Council (NEC) to jump to the presidency. The fact that Sexwale's wife Judy is white is seen as another handicap, Olojede noted. The racial issue is "unspoken" in ANC circles, but is a significant factor. Many in the ANC do not want a white first lady. (NOTE: Other commentators, such as the Helen Suzman Foundation's Raenette Taljaard, view Sexwale's inter-racial marriage as a political asset in today's South Africa. END NOTE.) -- Finance Minister Trevor Manuel is unlikely to be elected because he is colored. The country is not ready for a president who is not a black African. The racial tensions are too raw. Manuel's partner, Maria Ramos, is also white, which is a problem even though Ramos is a long-time ANC stalwart. -- ForMin Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma was at one time the front-runner, but her star is fading. Dlamini-Zuma's performance as Foreign Minister has been "rather unimpressive," and she has no charisma. Picking Dlamini-Zuma over her ex-husband Jacob might also be viewed as a slight by the Zuma camp. -- ANC Secretary General Kgalema Motlanthe would have been a strong candidate, but his clumsy handling of the "hoax email" scandal -- in which former Mbeki aide Billy Masethla was accused to sending fake emails to discredit Mbeki's allies -- has undermined his candidacy. Motlanthe has dragged out the scandal unnecessarily, raising doubts about his reliability. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: As we have reported, we believe it is too soon to call the race for the ANC presidency. Only in September when the nomination process kicks off will the full contours of the race emerge. Olojede's analysis likely reflects that of his friend Saki Macozoma and other ANC "business elites." The Macozoma crowd may have some problems with Mbeki's leadership style, but believe he has generally taken the country in the right direction. Someone like Cyril Ramaphosa would probably be their first choice to replace Mbeki. The ANC business elite cannot fathom a country ruled by Jacob Zuma, who is uneducated and, they believe, lacks the sophistication to be President. END COMMENT. ¶8. (C) BIO-NOTE: Nigerian-born Dele Olojede has lived in South Africa since 2004. He occasionally offers analysis on South African politics and writes for the South African weekly the Sunday Times. Olojede recently moderated a panel discussion on ANC secession for the Times. The 46-year old Olojede is involved in a commercial project to start an Africa-wide newspaper, based in Johannesburg. Olojede is personally close to a number of senior ANC leaders, particularly Saki Macozoma. Formerly foreign editor for Newsday, Olojede won a Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting in April 2005 for his series on the Rwandan genocide, and worked as Newsday bureau chief in Beijing and Johannesburg. His wife Amma and two children live with him in Johannesburg. END BIO-NOTE. Bost