AU WAITING FOR COMORAN RESPONSE TO PEACE PLAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 002470 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E M. BEYZEROV AND AF/C M. TABLER-STONE ANTANANARIVO FOR B. NEUBERT E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2017 TAGS: PREL KDEM CN SF SUBJECT: AU WAITING FOR COMORAN RESPONSE TO PEACE PLAN REF: A. ANTANANARIVO 681 ¶B. PRETORIA 2402 ¶C. ANTANANARIVO 615 Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) and ( d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Anjouan "President" Bacar is unlikely to accept the AU proposal to resolve the political crisis in Comoros, speculated DFA official Graham Maitland (protect). The AU plan, presented at the July 8-9 Pretoria talks, calls for new elections on Anjouan by mid-August, AU security for and monitoring of the elections, and resumption of inter-island talks on power-sharing ("competencies"). If Bacar does not agree to the proposal, the AU Committee will report back to the AU Peace and Security Council for guidance. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) Director for the Horn of Africa and Indian Island Nations Graham Maitland briefed PolOff on July 13 on the AU talks on Comoros, which were held in Pretoria July 8-9 (refs A & B). South African ForMin Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma led the negotiations, as chair of the AU Ministerial Committee of Countries of the Region on Comoros. Maitland said that the Pretoria talks were intended to deepen the discussions begun at the AU PSC meeting in Cape Town (ref C) and continued during their June 24 trip to Comoros. -------------- Anjouan Demands -------------- ¶3. (C) Maitland said the Anjouan delegation accepted that new elections should be held, but had two key demands: (1) that any new elections in Anjouan should be held in conjunction with elections on the two other islands, as required by Comoran law, and (2) that negotiations on the sharing of "competencies" between the islands should resume. The Anjouan delegation argued that Sambi's increasing centralization of power violates the letter and spirit of the Comoran peace process. They also questioned the independence of the constitutional court, which would resolve any election disputes. -------------- AU Proposal -------------- ¶4. (C) In an attempt to break the stalemate, Maitland said the AU tabled a package of proposals (described in Ref A): -- elections should be held on Anjouan (and only Anjouan),no later than mid-August; -- the Anjouan security forces should be cantoned before the elections, replaced by AU forces to maintain security; -- the AU would provide "vigilant" oversight of the elections; and -- the Union government would reconvene the committee to review the "competencies" of the islands; the AU would provide technical expertise for these talks. ¶5. (C) The AU gave both sides ten days to respond to the package of proposals. The AU envoy Francisco Madeira was traveling to the Comoros July 14-15 to continue the discussions. The South African/AU team would then report to the AU Peace and Security Council on the responses and seek guidance on next steps. -------------- Not Optimistic -------------- ¶6. (C) Maitland was not optimistic that "President" Bacar would accept the AU package of proposals, but would not be drawn out on what the AU would do if Bacar refused. Maitland suggested that by "standing up to Sambi," Bacar has gained popularity on Anjouan, and would likely win a free and fair election. -------------- PRETORIA 00002470 002 OF 002 Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) While South Africa will be reluctant to support a military solution to the problem in Anjouan, we believe Pretoria's patience is beginning to wear thin. Maitland noted that the credibility of the AU is at stake, and that the AU PSC would have to deal with the matter if Bacar rejects the AU package. He also expressed his personal frustration with the lingering Comoros dispute ("they think the world revolves around them"),noting that the crisis is sucking away energy from a busy South African ForMin and DFA team. Bost