ZIMBABWE TALKS FINALLY BEGIN IN PRETORIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 002210

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S, DRL
NSC FOR AF SENIOR DIRECTOR
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2017
TAGS: PREL KDEM SF ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE TALKS FINALLY BEGIN IN PRETORIA

REF: A. PRETORIA 1447

B. PRETORIA 1554

C. TRENKLE-HILL EMAIL OF 06/19/2007

D. 06 PRETORIA 0582

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(
b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. The long-awaited talks between ZANU-PF and
the MDC kicked off in Pretoria June 17-18 with the two sides
agreeing on a five point agenda for future negotiations:
constitution, electoral laws, security legislation,
communications, and political climate. On the constitution,
the ZANU-PF and the MDC negotiators reportedly agreed to use
the 2004 draft constitution as the basis for future
discussions. The parties will meet again on the constitution
in Harare o/a June 27, and the South African-mediated talks
will resume July 5 in Pretoria. While Post remains skeptical
that this South African facilitation will succeed in
resolving the crisis in Zimbabwe, these talks achieved more
than we would have expected. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) The South African mediated-talks between the
Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ)/ZANU-PF and the Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC) began in Pretoria June 17-18. This
was the first face-to-face meeting between the two sides
since the Southern African Development Community (SADC)
appointed President Mbeki facilitator at its March 28-29
Extraordinary Summit (see Ref A for Post's assessment of the
South African mediation). Minister for Labour and Social
Welfare Nicholas Goche and Minister of Justice Patrick
Chinamasa represented ZANU-PF, and the Secretaries General of
the two MDC factions, Tendai Biti (Tsvangirai faction) and
Welshman Ncube (Mutambara faction) represented the opposition
party.

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Agreement on Agenda
--------------


3. (C) These initial talks went "very well," according to
Ivor Jenkins from the Institute for Democracy in South Africa
(IDASA) (strictly protect). Jenkins received a readout on
the talks from Ncube the evening of June 18. President
Mbeki opened the talks the morning of June 17. Mbeki
stressed that the situation in Zimbabwe is a "mess," and
parties must make progress in the negotiations. (NOTE: Mbeki
reportedly telephoned Mugabe last week and took a very hard
line, telling Mugabe he was not going to be able to wriggle
out of the SADC mandate. END NOTE.)


4. (C) The South African mediation team, led by Minister
Sydney Mufamadi, then met with the two parties and proposed
an agenda for the talks (not just this round, but rather for
the entire process). The SAG based its five point agenda --
constitution, electoral laws, repressive legislation,
political climate, and endorsement of SADC decisions -- on
the documents submitted by the two parties. (See Refs B and
C for summaries of MDC and ZANU-PF negotiating positions.)
Both the MDC and GOZ/ZANU-PF agreed to the substance of the
agenda, but ZANU-PF objected to some of the language used,
particularly the phrase "repressive legislation."


5. (C) Mufamadi met with both sides throughout the day June
17 to hash out a revised agenda which the parties would
support. The final agenda included the following items
(proposed and final agendas emailed to Embassy Harare and
AF/S):

-- Constitution
- Process
- Substantive proposals, such as those of devolution of
powers, citizenship, manner of making constitutional
appointments, electoral system

-- Electoral Laws

PRETORIA 00002210 002 OF 002


- Voter registration requirements

-- Security legislation
- POSA

-- Communications
- Broadcasting laws
- External radio stations

-- Political climate
- Demilitarization of state institutions
- Hostile rhetoric
- Use of militias; abuse of state aid and traditional
chiefs
- Sanctions
- Land

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Initial Discussions; Agreement on Next Round
--------------


6. (C) Following agreement on the agenda, both sides then
made presentations on the five items. The other party
responded, but there were no negotiations per se. According
to Jenkins, Goche largely played the good cop (being
conciliatory) to Chinamasa's bad cop (loudly objecting to
nearly everything).


7. (C) Mufamadi secured agreement from both parties that the
2004 draft constitution (Ref D) -- negotiated by Ncube and
Chinamasa with South African aid but never approved -- will
serve as the basis of the constitutional talks. The MDC
views this as a major concession since it implicitly means
that the GOZ will not push the constitutional amendments now
pending in Parliament. Jenkins also reported that the two
MDC Secretaries General, Biti and Ncube, are working together
effectively.


8. (C) The two sides agreed to meet o/a June 27 in Harare to
resume talks about the constitution. The next formal South
African-mediated talks will take place in Pretoria July 5.
(NOTE: Mbeki must report back to SADC by the end of the June
on the talks. END NOTE.)

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Comment
--------------


9. (C) While we remain skeptical about the prospects for
Mbeki's mediation in Zimbabwe, the Pretoria talks achieved
more than we would have expected. The five agenda items are
largely the right ones, but they are complex and not easily
solved. We defer to Embassy Harare on analysis of ZANU-PF's
goodwill and the possibility that Mugabe and his team will
drag out the negotiations, making reforms too late to affect
the March 2008 elections. As reported in Ref A, we believe
Mbeki is more determined than ever to resolve the crisis in
Zimbabwe. The Mbeki mediation remains the only game in town,
and we recommend the U.S. Government continue to offer quiet,
but cautious, support for his efforts.
Bost