ZIMBABWE: SADC INITIATIVE OFF TO SLOW START

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 002105 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR P, AF, DRL, AF/S E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2017 TAGS: PREL PINR PGOV SADC ZI SF SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: SADC INITIATIVE OFF TO SLOW START REF: PRETORIA 2044 Classified By: Charges d'Affaires Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(b) an d (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Political analyst Sydney Masamvu told PolOff on 5 June that the SADC initiative is off to a slow and disheartening start. ZANU-PF's official submission to Mbeki includes troublesome non-starters like demanding that the MDC acknowledge that Mugabe was elected in a free and fair poll and is the legitimate President of Zimbabwe. MDC is growing frustrated with the process and is already leaning toward boycotting the next election. If one were keeping score, Mugabe would be in the lead. However, Masamvu, who was in Harare last week, also believes that many in ZANU-PF are ready for the SADC-led initiative to work, especially those who see themselves as Mugabe's successors. END SUMMARY. -------------- ZANU-PF PLAYS GAMES WITH NEGOTIATIONS -------------- ¶2. (C) After asking for a week's extension, ZANU-PF on 4 June gave President Mbeki its official response to MDC's submission on their vision of the way forward. Political analyst Sydney Masamvu (strictly protect) told PolOff on 5 June that ZANU-PF's submission calls on the MDC to: 1) join SADC leaders in their call for an end to all foreign sanctions, 2) acknowledge that the last election was free and fair and that Mugabe is the legitimate President of Zimbabwe, and 3) agree to a constitutional amendment guaranteeing Mugabe immunity from any prosecution. (Comment: The ZANU-PF insistence on labeling Mugabe "legitimate" could be viewed as one pillar of immunity, but also as a stalling tactic since ZANU-PF must realize the MDC would never acknowledge such a statement. End Comment). Rex Mujuru told Masamvu last week in Harare that Mugabe's biggest fear is prosecution (i.e., before the International Court in the Hague),but that many in the party, included Rex himself, no longer share Mugabe's concerns and would not be upset if he were prosecuted. Mujuru also told Masamvu that Mugabe had tried to put him under CIO surveillance three months ago, but that the CIO refused and told him immediately. At that point, according to Mujuru, he would have handed Mugabe over if he could. ¶3. (C) In the meantime, Masamvu believes that Mugabe and his team are already trying to outfox Mbeki (again). For example, Mugabe's attempts to enlarge the legislature and allow Parliament to choose the President will prevent the MDC from becoming king-makers. Currently, if the MDC regained all of its 41 seats, it would break the tie between the two ZANU-PF factions that support either Mujuru or Mugabe. Masamvu also said that during the first face to face meeting between ZANU-PF negotiators and MDC Secretaries Generals, Goche told Tendai Biti and Welshman Ncube that they did not need Mbeki and suggested that they negotiate amongst themselves in Harare. Masamvu called the move "cheeky" and said that Mbeki was not happy with the comment. Masamvu also added that Mbeki should never have chosen someone like Sydney Mufamadi (SAG Minister of Local Government and Mbeki's diplomatic trouble-shooter) to become involved since "the Zimbabweans will run circles around him." -------------- MDC FOCUSING ON SELF-PRESERVATION FOR NOW -------------- ¶4. (C) MDC Leader Morgan Tsvangirai asked to meet with Masamvu immediately after he addressed the diplomatic corps in Pretoria on 5 June (Ref A). Though Tsvangirai told diplomats that it is too early to take a decision about whether they will participate in elections or not, Tsvangirai confided to Masamvu that the chances of them boycotting are currently at 95 percent. Masamvu agreed with Morgan's assessment that it was pointless to participate in a forlorn hope. The MDC participated in an unfair election the last time around, he concluded, and achieved nothing by their effort. Though Tsvangirai consistently points out that his supporters do not want to participate in a charade, he also appears to have selfish motives in that he realizes that the next election will likely be his last chance to become the President. According to Masamvu, if Tsvangirai loses the next election, despite its character or legitimacy, MDC grassroots will likely look for another leader with a better chance of achieving a better result. -------------- PRETORIA 00002105 002 OF 002 ZANU-PF ALLIANCES STILL FLUID -------------- ¶5. (C) Masamvu described ongoing and changing alliances between ZANU-PF members. According to Masamvu, Rex Mujuru is "restless" and is becoming closer to Emerson Mnangagwa. Masamvu also heard that the heightened state of alert by the military was due to concerns about a palace coup, not the activities of the opposition. When asked who would lead such a coup, Masamvu said Rex Mujuru. The Women's League, whose president recently said that "a fish rotten at the head should be thrown away," is leaning toward Simba Makoni. Masamvu also suspects that Gono is gaining ground and warned PolOff that if Mugabe is not running, Gono will throw his hat in the ring 3 months before an election. Masamvu told PolOff that Gono acknowledges he could not defeat Mugabe, but that Gono believes he could easily defeat Mujuru and Mnangagwa. -------------- MBEKI CALLS ON MASAMVU FOR ADVICE -------------- ¶6. (C) Masamvu told PolOff that Mbeki asked him and Mike McGovern from International Crisis Group to meet with him and Deputy ForMin Pahad to discuss Zimbabwe at the beginning of May. (Note: Masamvu said the meeting was held at 1:00 am at Mbeki's official residence and that Mbeki "was at his best," even at that hour. Masamvu was told that Mbeki's last meeting that day was scheduled for 3:00 am. End Note) Mbeki specifically asked Masamvu about the configuration of political loyalties within the Zimbabwean military and what kind of assistance the MDC would need to govern. Masamvu responded that the military is divided in thirds, with one-third loyal to Mugabe, one-third to Mujuru, and one-third to Mnangagwa. As for the MDC, Masamvu said, "I had to be honest; I told them that MDC would win in a free and fair election, but they would need significant help building capacity to govern effectively." Masamvu then joked that given the shallowness of the MDC ranks, the party would have to run two pages of classified ads just to get enough ministers to fill a cabinet. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Masamvu's insights into the interpersonal, political and social dynamics influencing events in Zimbabwe are in demand by regional and international leaders and analysts. He was the primary author of the recent analysis on Zimbabwe, following the SADC Special Session in Dar es Salaam, published by the International Crisis Group. South Africa's highest leaders who are most directly engaged in the SADC-mandated initiative pursued by President Mbeki call on Masamvu and seem to value his assessment of the situation. They and others seek his advice as they formulate their policies and strategies. As such, Masamvu has become as much an influential player in these complicated developments as he is a keen eyed observer and analyst. Nevertheless, his judgment is valued because he is often close to the mark and has the rare ability to move comfortably between opposition and ruling party leaders while maintaining warm associations within the Zimbabwean and international NGO communities. Post has learned to trust his judgment. In this case, he confessed a personal sense of despondency with the pace of events that significantly chills any optimistic expectations for the near term. Teitelbaum