DFA DIRECTOR BELIEVES MBEKI SUDAN TRIP A SUCCESS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001556

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2017
TAGS: PREL SO SF SU
SUBJECT: DFA DIRECTOR BELIEVES MBEKI SUDAN TRIP A SUCCESS,
NEED NEW APPROACH ON SOMALIA


Classified By: Charges d'Affaires Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(b) an
d (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. President Mbeki's April 10-11 trip to Sudan
focused on the North-South peace process, according to DFA
Director Maitland. Mbeki's delegation came away "rather
positive" on CPA implementation, believing that both sides
were committed to discussing the key issues. The SAG plans
to open a consulate in Juba later this year and will expand
its assistance to the GOSS, in areas of police training,
correctional services, and the census. On Darfur, Mbeki
added his voice of concern about the ongoing suffering and
pressed Bashir to accept the AU-UN hybrid force. DFA
Director Maitland expressed his personal view on Somalia that
the TFG has spent its credibility and cannot resolve the
crisis. He recommended looking for an alternative, without
PM Gedi or President Yusuf, with real powersharing to restore
stability. END SUMMARY.

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Mbeki Focuses on CPA and GOSS Assistance
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2. (C) Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) Director for the
Horn of Africa and Indian Islands Graham Maitland (protect)
told POLOFF April 25 that President Mbeki had a successful
trip to Khartoum and Juba April 10-11. Mbeki's main focus of
the trip was to review progress in the implementation of the
Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Maitland said the Mbeki
delegation came away "rather positive" on the CPA, at least
compared to their last trip, since both sides appeared more
sincere about discussing the key issues, including Abeyei,
security, and elections. Mbeki planned to return to Sudan
later this year, again to press for CPA implementation.


3. (C) Mbeki also visited Juba to meet with Sudanese Vice
President and GOSS head Salva Kiir. The two discussed the
recent Government of South Sudan (GOSS) efforts to deal with
corruption, a theme Mbeki raised in Kiir's trip to Pretoria
in November 2006. Mbeki also signed a MOU with the GOSS on
police training (in partnership with the Government of
Norway) and correctional services. He also reviewed the
GOSS/DFA/University of South Africa (UNISA) program to build
GOSS capacity, a program to which the SAG has contributed
more than USD 3 million over the past two years. (NOTE:
USAID Pretoria plans to support the GOSS/DFA/UNISA program
with USD 100,000 grant in FY2007. END NOTE.) South Africa's
Department of Home Affairs will visit Sudan in June to
discuss possible assistance with the census in preparation
for the elections.


4. (SBU) South Africa plans to open its Consulate in Juba by
the end of 2007. The facility has been identified, and an
administrative team will travel to Juba at the end of May to
finalize the technical details.

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Africa Voice on Darfur
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5. (C) Mbeki voiced his concern about the ongoing suffering
in Darfur. Consistent with South Africa's public position,
Mbeki encouraged Bashir to accept the UN Heavy Support
Package and hybrid UN-AU peacekeeping force. Maitland said
that much of the Mbeki-Bashir meeting was a one-on-one
discussion, with even ForMin Dlamini-Zuma relegated to the
corridors. Despite South Africa's concerns about the
situation in Darfur, Maitland stressed that Pretoria opposes
the imposition of sanctions or other "unilateral steps" at
this point. (See septel for a description of DepForMin
Pahad's April 25 discussion of Darfur sanctions with A/S
Silverberg.)

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Somalia -- Need to Accept New Reality
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6. (C) Following Mbeki's Sudan trip, DFA Director Maitland
traveled separately to Eritrea and Djibouti to discuss the
situation in Somalia with key regional leaders, including a
number of exiled Somalis. Speaking personally, Maitland said

PRETORIA 00001556 002 OF 002


that the Ethiopian military actions are creating "massive
problems" in Mogadishu. The Ugandan troops are "trapped"
and, he heard, have been bought off by the key clans (i.e.,
"don't interfere and you won't be killed").


7. (C) Maitland's personal advice to the USG is to
acknowledge that the TFG "cannot bring you through the
crisis," because their credibility is spent. Instead, the
USG and other partners should look for an alternative with
"real powersharing" to bring the clans together. Any new
formation cannot include President Yusuf or Prime Minister
Gedi.

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Comment
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8. (C) President Mbeki has made Sudan one of his key African
priorities, along with DRC and Burundi. Mbeki views peace in
Sudan as important for his African Renaissance and NEPAD
projects, as well as for South Africa's long-term economic
interests. Mbeki consistently stresses the importance of
implementing the CPA, arguing that the international
community has fixated on Darfur while neglecting the
North-South peace process. On Darfur, South Africa shares
our goals of a robust peacekeeping force, but believes (as
they do with nearly all conflicts) that dialogue, not
sanctions, will bring Bashir on board. The SAG also contends
that the international community has not devoted sufficient
attention to the political side of the equation in Darfur.


9. (C) Maitland's comments on Somalia are personal and do not
reflect SAG policy. However, we suspect that his views are
shared by senior DFA officials who publicly support the AU
mission, but privately believe the international community
needs a new approach in Somalia.
TEITELBAUM