DFA DIRECTOR BELIEVES MBEKI SUDAN TRIP A SUCCESS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001556 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2017 TAGS: PREL SO SF SU SUBJECT: DFA DIRECTOR BELIEVES MBEKI SUDAN TRIP A SUCCESS, NEED NEW APPROACH ON SOMALIA Classified By: Charges d'Affaires Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(b) an d (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. President Mbeki's April 10-11 trip to Sudan focused on the North-South peace process, according to DFA Director Maitland. Mbeki's delegation came away "rather positive" on CPA implementation, believing that both sides were committed to discussing the key issues. The SAG plans to open a consulate in Juba later this year and will expand its assistance to the GOSS, in areas of police training, correctional services, and the census. On Darfur, Mbeki added his voice of concern about the ongoing suffering and pressed Bashir to accept the AU-UN hybrid force. DFA Director Maitland expressed his personal view on Somalia that the TFG has spent its credibility and cannot resolve the crisis. He recommended looking for an alternative, without PM Gedi or President Yusuf, with real powersharing to restore stability. END SUMMARY. -------------- Mbeki Focuses on CPA and GOSS Assistance -------------- ¶2. (C) Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) Director for the Horn of Africa and Indian Islands Graham Maitland (protect) told PolOff April 25 that President Mbeki had a successful trip to Khartoum and Juba April 10-11. Mbeki's main focus of the trip was to review progress in the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Maitland said the Mbeki delegation came away "rather positive" on the CPA, at least compared to their last trip, since both sides appeared more sincere about discussing the key issues, including Abeyei, security, and elections. Mbeki planned to return to Sudan later this year, again to press for CPA implementation. ¶3. (C) Mbeki also visited Juba to meet with Sudanese Vice President and GOSS head Salva Kiir. The two discussed the recent Government of South Sudan (GOSS) efforts to deal with corruption, a theme Mbeki raised in Kiir's trip to Pretoria in November 2006. Mbeki also signed a MOU with the GOSS on police training (in partnership with the Government of Norway) and correctional services. He also reviewed the GOSS/DFA/University of South Africa (UNISA) program to build GOSS capacity, a program to which the SAG has contributed more than USD 3 million over the past two years. (NOTE: USAID Pretoria plans to support the GOSS/DFA/UNISA program with USD 100,000 grant in FY2007. END NOTE.) South Africa's Department of Home Affairs will visit Sudan in June to discuss possible assistance with the census in preparation for the elections. ¶4. (SBU) South Africa plans to open its Consulate in Juba by the end of 2007. The facility has been identified, and an administrative team will travel to Juba at the end of May to finalize the technical details. -------------- Africa Voice on Darfur -------------- ¶5. (C) Mbeki voiced his concern about the ongoing suffering in Darfur. Consistent with South Africa's public position, Mbeki encouraged Bashir to accept the UN Heavy Support Package and hybrid UN-AU peacekeeping force. Maitland said that much of the Mbeki-Bashir meeting was a one-on-one discussion, with even ForMin Dlamini-Zuma relegated to the corridors. Despite South Africa's concerns about the situation in Darfur, Maitland stressed that Pretoria opposes the imposition of sanctions or other "unilateral steps" at this point. (See septel for a description of DepForMin Pahad's April 25 discussion of Darfur sanctions with A/S Silverberg.) -------------- Somalia -- Need to Accept New Reality -------------- ¶6. (C) Following Mbeki's Sudan trip, DFA Director Maitland traveled separately to Eritrea and Djibouti to discuss the situation in Somalia with key regional leaders, including a number of exiled Somalis. Speaking personally, Maitland said PRETORIA 00001556 002 OF 002 that the Ethiopian military actions are creating "massive problems" in Mogadishu. The Ugandan troops are "trapped" and, he heard, have been bought off by the key clans (i.e., "don't interfere and you won't be killed"). ¶7. (C) Maitland's personal advice to the USG is to acknowledge that the TFG "cannot bring you through the crisis," because their credibility is spent. Instead, the USG and other partners should look for an alternative with "real powersharing" to bring the clans together. Any new formation cannot include President Yusuf or Prime Minister Gedi. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) President Mbeki has made Sudan one of his key African priorities, along with DRC and Burundi. Mbeki views peace in Sudan as important for his African Renaissance and NEPAD projects, as well as for South Africa's long-term economic interests. Mbeki consistently stresses the importance of implementing the CPA, arguing that the international community has fixated on Darfur while neglecting the North-South peace process. On Darfur, South Africa shares our goals of a robust peacekeeping force, but believes (as they do with nearly all conflicts) that dialogue, not sanctions, will bring Bashir on board. The SAG also contends that the international community has not devoted sufficient attention to the political side of the equation in Darfur. ¶9. (C) Maitland's comments on Somalia are personal and do not reflect SAG policy. However, we suspect that his views are shared by senior DFA officials who publicly support the AU mission, but privately believe the international community needs a new approach in Somalia. TEITELBAUM