SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER APRIL 20, 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 001381 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S/MTABLER-STONE; AF/EPS; EB/IFD/OMA USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/MAC/AME/OA/DIEMOND TREASURY FOR OAISA/RALYEA/CUSHMAN USTR FOR COLEMAN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV ETRD EMIN EPET ENRG BEXP KTDB SENV PGOV, SF SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER APRIL 20, 2007 ISSUE ¶1. (U) Summary. This is Volume 7, issue 16 of U.S. Embassy Pretoria's South Africa Economic News weekly newsletter. Topics of this week's newsletter are: - Slow Progress Towards AsgiSA Goals - US Equity Giant Bain Snares Edcon for R25bn - High Commodity Prices Up SA-US Export Value - SA Considering Second, Cheaper Undersea Telecommunications Cable - Below Market Value Sale of a Marine Vessel Sets Scene for an Investigation - First BEE Private Equity Fund Launched - Johannesburg Mine Dumps Disappear End Summary. Slow Progress Towards AsgiSA Goals -------------- ¶2. (U) The Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa (AsgiSA),the SA government's one-year old initiative to accelerate and spread economic growth, requires a new approach, according to Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka. Although the "economy is pumping," with positive macroeconomic indicators and a massive infrastructure program underway, Mlambo-Ngcuka's recently released first annual report for AsgiSA noted that behind-target spending, especially in provinces and municipalities, and delayed social service projects were a particular problem. Some projects that were reportedly begun over three years ago had still not been implemented. She also pointed out that inter-departmental turf wars were blocking crucial coordination between government departments and has caused delays in aligning funds with AsgiSA's sectoral targets for skills development. Mlambo-Ngcuka acknowledged that she had underestimated the challenge of unemployment among the youth with no marketable skills and the government had overestimated the markets' role in creating jobs. To redress this problem, she said the government needed to re-frame its policies based on the current workforce. She said she would press for new initiatives on youth unemployment, manufacturing, small-business development, information technology, the creative arts and government capacity. AsgiSA also aims to relieve "binding constraints" to faster economic growth. She criticized the information, communications and technology sector for failing to bring down prices and to expand opportunities, and 
delivered harsh words against private-sector resistance to Black Economic Empowerment. (Business Times, April 15, 2007) US Equity Giant Bain Snares Edcon for R25bn -------------- ¶3. (U) In SA's largest private equity deal to date, U.S. equity giant Bain Capital won 80% of shareholder votes for its takeover bid of Edcon for 25 billion rand ($3.57 billion). Edcon, a prized Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) listed retail conglomerate, owns popular outlets including Edgars, CNA, Boardmans, and Temptations. International private equity groups have been sizing up other local listed assets, but only one other smaller valued transaction has been made. The Edcon vote may be an impetus to push forward other deals during this period of strong consumer spending and credit growth. Although the takeover still requires regulatory approvals by the High Court, the SA Reserve Bank and the Competition Commission, commentators expect it to clear the remaining hurdles without difficulty. Bain will keep Edcon's Black Economic Empowerment initiatives intact and none of its 20,000 staff jobs are under threat. Edcon will be delisted from the JSE on May 18. (Business Day and Pretoria News, April 17, 2007) High Commodity Prices Up SA-US Export Value -------------- ¶4. (U) The value of South African exports to the US surged in the first two months of 2007 due to high and rising commodity prices. Exports for January and February 2007 rose 32% from the same period last year to nearly $1.4 billion. Historically, mineral and metal exports are by far the biggest component of exports to the U.S. With the platinum prices ranging from $1,160 to $1,240 per ounce in January and February compared to $1,080 for the same period in 2006, the chief economist from the Chamber of Mines says that rising commodity prices, rather than volumes, were responsible for the higher values. Other metals showed similar price trajectories; Rhodium was at $5,600 to $6,000 in January and February from $3,500 for the same period last year and palladium was at $330 to $350 PRETORIA 00001381 002 OF 003 compared with less than $290 last year. The second largest export sector, passenger motor vehicles, was up 126% to $101 million in the first two months of 2007, largely owing to the recovery of interrupted BMW production in 2005. (Pretoria News and Business Day, April 17, 2007) SA Considering Second, Cheaper Undersea Telecommunications Cable -------------- ¶5. (U) Department of Communications (DOC) Director-General Lyndall Shope-Mafole confirmed that SA may take the lead in building a second undersea telecommunications cable along Africa's east coast to compete with the planned East Africa Submarine System (EASSy) cable. Shope-Mafole said April 4 that EASSy investors, which include SA parastatal telecommunications monopoly Telkom, are more interested in profiteering than providing affordable bandwidth. DOC supports the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) which wants to increase affordable bandwidth and ideally would use the EASSy cable. EASSy consortium members have complained that African governments are trying to hijack the project. The opposing NEPAD group insists that users of the cable pay the same price for bandwidth access as the private companies that invested in the infrastructure. Unless a compromise between the groups is reached, two competing cables may be built. Telkom CEO Papi Molotsane, who signed the investment agreement with the EASSy consortium despite DOC's position, resigned April 5. (Business Day, April 4 and 6, 2007) Below Market Value Sale of a Marine Vessel Sets Scene for an Investigation -------------- -- ¶6. (U) The Marine Coastal Management (MCM),a division of the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (DEAT),has sold a marine patrol vessel "Eagle Star" at well below market value, raising concerns within the department, parliament and elsewhere. MCM sold the Eagle Star for $42,000 through an auction process in which only two bidders were present in November 2006. Eagle Star was sold containing $31,900 worth of diesel, which new owner Ruurd Van der Werf immediately resold. Van Der Werf also stated that the vessel was headed for Mozambique where he would lease it to the government for a handsome profit. The main source of controversy in the sale of the 50-meter long vessel is that it had undergone a refit recently, costing local taxpayers $486,000. DEAT spokesperson Blessing Manale said that the controversial sale flabbergasted many senior government officials and some members of opposition parties in parliament who are demanding an explanation. In this regard, DEAT will appoint an external audit verification to investigate how the auction was conducted, including how it was advertised, the choice of the auctioneers and how they arrived at the sale price. Manale said that MCM Deputy Director General Monde Mayekiso, who gave the approval for the sale in May 2006, was given the mandate to do so by DEAT because the vessel was considered obsolete and expensive to keep. He said that Mayekiso did not, however, see it appropriate to set a reserve price on the vessel for fear that it would drive away potential bidders. Meanwhile, the finance chief in MCM reportedly conceded that sale price was too low, which he blamed on the two disputing auction houses who sold the vessel. Replying to parliamentary questions, DEAT Minister Marthinus Van Schalkwyk acknowledged that his department sold the ship after spending money to convert it from a fishing trawler to a marine patrol training ship, which was then used for over four years at a cost of $450,000 before it was relinquished. Meanwhile, the Democratic Alliance, an opposition political party, said that the value of the vessel was $1.1 million when it was acquired in 2003, and has since been revamped and fitted with vessel-monitoring systems, radar, IT and satellite facilities. (Sunday Times, April 1, 2007; and Business Day, April 3, 2007) First BEE Private Equity Fund Launched -------------- ¶7. (U) Sanlam Private Equity has launched a series of four specialist investment funds aimed at plowing 2.6 billion rand (about $370 million) into Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) - with 300 million rand (about $40 million) allocated specifically towards transformation of the small and medium enterprise (SME) sector. Announcing the project, Sanlam Private Equity Chief Executive Pieter Kriel said that Sanlam Private Equity would provide a 25% anchor investment for each fund, and that road shows to raise the remaining PRETORIA 00001381 003 OF 003 75% have already begun. Potential investors include European development agencies, the Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa, and several major pension funds. Transformation of the SME sector is widely viewed as critical to the South African government's job creation and poverty alleviation objectives. (Business Day, April 17, 2007) Johannesburg Mine Dumps Disappear -------------- ¶8. (U) Johannesburg's cityscape has long included huge mounds of golden sand (known as "slag heaps") made up of the lowest grade ore from the gold rush days. With gold prices soaring, now even these dumps of crushed rock and sand that yield only .45 grams of gold per ton are being reprocessed. The only company that re-treats mine dumps in Johannesburg, DRDGold, has already removed 203 million tons of dumps, recovering 90 tons of gold. It is now pressing to lay its hands on the most famous dump, which has above-average yields. However, heritage organizations are battling the company from flattening this "landmark, a symbol of Johannesburg" location that includes a defunct drive-in movie facility on its top and has spectacular views of Johannesburg. (Business Day, April 19, 2007) BOST