BURUNDI: MAMABOLO SAYS FNL PEACE PROCESS STALLED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001289 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF DAS J. SWAN, AF/C G. MALLORY, AF/S M. TABLER-STONE BUJUMBURA FOR A. BREITER E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2017 TAGS: PREL MARR BY SF SUBJECT: BURUNDI: MAMABOLO SAYS FNL PEACE PROCESS STALLED REF: A. STATE 038267 ¶B. BUJUMBURA 0267 ¶C. PRETORIA 1077 Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) an d (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. South Africa is increasingly frustrated with the "stubborn" FNL-Palipehutu rebel group, according to South African Great Lakes Envoy Kingsley Mamabolo. Mamabolo sees little sign that the FNL will rejoin the peace process. South Africa is preparing its report to Uganda and Tanzania and will seek their guidance on next steps. The Facilitator of the Burundi Peace Process, SAG Minister for Safety and Security Charles Nqakula, may travel to Burundi in May, but remains largely disengaged as he is preoccupied with his domestic crime portfolio. Mamabolo believes that the regional Heads of State may need to intervene to pressure the FNL and reenergize the peace process. END SUMMARY. -------------- "Stubborn" FNL Inflexible -------------- ¶2. (C) Acting DCM delivered Ref A demarche on FNL-Palipehutu peace process to SAG Great Lakes Envoy Ambassador Kingsley Mamabolo on April 13th. (Ref A demarche on SAG support for the Burundian deployment to Somalia reported septel.) Mamabolo, who just returned from Burundi, agreed with USG concerns about the delays in the Burundi peace process, observing that implementation of the FNL ceasefire agreement is "stalled." He complained that the "stubborn" FNL is trying to reopen issues that have already been negotiated, such as the dismantling of the military and the creation of new positions for their leadership in the GOB (FNL positions described in ref B). The FNL seems stuck in their negotiating positions and is not being flexible. One of the major problems, Mamabolo noted, is that the "mid-level" FNL delegation in Bujumbura is unable to make decisions since its leadership, including FNL leader Agathon Rwasa, is not in Bujumbura. In Mamabolo's opinion, the FNL has "badly miscalculated." This process offered them space to become a legitimate party, despite the rebel movement's characterization by the Tripartite Plus process as a "negative force." -------------- Nkurunziza Prepared to Offer FNL Positions -------------- ¶3. (C) Mamabolo said he had urged President Pierre Nkurunziza to announce publicly that he would meet with the FNL to discuss their demands. While Nkurunziza was initially reluctant, the President later suggested he would do so. Nkurunziza said he would be willing to offer the FNL positions within his appointment authority, such as ambassadorships, heads of parastatals, and other executive positions. He would not appoint them ministers since this would violate the Constitution (which requires that ministers be elected MPs). -------------- SAG Patience Not Unlimited -------------- ¶4. (C) Responding to PolCounselor's question about whether Facilitator of the Burundi Peace Process, Minister for Safety and Security Charles Nqakula, might travel to Burundi soon, Mamabolo noted that Nqakula was busy with his domestic crime portfolio. He said Nqakula tentatively plans to travel to Burundi in May, but Mamabolo believes there is little Nqakula can do; it will take Head of State intervention to jumpstart the peace process. The South African Mediation was drafting its report to the regional leadership, principally Ugandan President Museveni and Tanzanian President Kikwete, to seek their guidance. (NOTE: Mamabolo denied rumors the FNL peace talks might move to Pretoria. END NOTE.) PRETORIA 00001289 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Mamabolo noted that more than 1000 South African troops are deployed in Burundi under an AU mandate waiting for the FNL demobilization and disarmament to begin. This is costing the SAG USD 1.5 million per month, and the South African Department of Defence is beginning to question the deployment. European partners are willing to fund the South Africa facilitation office in Bujumbura, and the cost of the 150 VIP protectors to guard the FNL leadership, but not the ongoing cost of the core military deployment. The South African cabinet initially agreed to a six-month AU deployment in Burundi, and more than three months have passed with no progress. -------------- CNDD-FDD Tensions -------------- ¶6. (C) Asked about the recent leadership change in the CNDD-FDD, Mamabolo said the intra-party tensions were a "big worry." Former party leader Hussein Rajabu may be out of power, but "he will not just go away." South Africa is urging President Nkurunziza to find some sort of "accommodation" for Rajabu, arguing that it is better to keep him in the tent than have him on the outside. Mamabolo added that Nkurunziza does not appear to be taking this counsel. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The usually affable Mamabolo was visibly frustrated by the FNL and their shifting demands. South Africa has invested too much to wash its hands of the Burundi peace process, but the SAG likely will look for ways to intensify pressure on the FNL to rejoin the process, particularly as the costs of the SAG military deployment pile up. We should not expect too much from Facilitator Nqakula, who is tied up with the thorny domestic crime issue. Given the difficulty of his day job and the continuing complexity of the FNL peace process, Nqakula is probably not the right man for the Burundi job -- but we have seen no signs that Mbeki intends to replace him. BOST