BURUNDI: MAMABOLO SAYS FNL PEACE PROCESS STALLED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001289

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF DAS J. SWAN, AF/C G. MALLORY, AF/S M.
TABLER-STONE
BUJUMBURA FOR A. BREITER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR BY SF
SUBJECT: BURUNDI: MAMABOLO SAYS FNL PEACE PROCESS STALLED

REF: A. STATE 038267

B. BUJUMBURA 0267

C. PRETORIA 1077

Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) an
d (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. South Africa is increasingly frustrated with
the "stubborn" FNL-Palipehutu rebel group, according to South
African Great Lakes Envoy Kingsley Mamabolo. Mamabolo sees
little sign that the FNL will rejoin the peace process.
South Africa is preparing its report to Uganda and Tanzania
and will seek their guidance on next steps. The Facilitator
of the Burundi Peace Process, SAG Minister for Safety and
Security Charles Nqakula, may travel to Burundi in May, but
remains largely disengaged as he is preoccupied with his
domestic crime portfolio. Mamabolo believes that the
regional Heads of State may need to intervene to pressure the
FNL and reenergize the peace process. END SUMMARY.

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"Stubborn" FNL Inflexible
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2. (C) Acting DCM delivered Ref A demarche on FNL-Palipehutu
peace process to SAG Great Lakes Envoy Ambassador Kingsley
Mamabolo on April 13th. (Ref A demarche on SAG support for
the Burundian deployment to Somalia reported septel.)
Mamabolo, who just returned from Burundi, agreed with USG
concerns about the delays in the Burundi peace process,
observing that implementation of the FNL ceasefire agreement
is "stalled." He complained that the "stubborn" FNL is
trying to reopen issues that have already been negotiated,
such as the dismantling of the military and the creation of
new positions for their leadership in the GOB (FNL positions
described in ref B). The FNL seems stuck in their
negotiating positions and is not being flexible. One of the
major problems, Mamabolo noted, is that the "mid-level" FNL
delegation in Bujumbura is unable to make decisions since its
leadership, including FNL leader Agathon Rwasa, is not in
Bujumbura. In Mamabolo's opinion, the FNL has "badly
miscalculated." This process offered them space to become a
legitimate party, despite the rebel movement's
characterization by the Tripartite Plus process as a
"negative force."

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Nkurunziza Prepared to Offer FNL Positions
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3. (C) Mamabolo said he had urged President Pierre Nkurunziza
to announce publicly that he would meet with the FNL to
discuss their demands. While Nkurunziza was initially
reluctant, the President later suggested he would do so.
Nkurunziza said he would be willing to offer the FNL
positions within his appointment authority, such as
ambassadorships, heads of parastatals, and other executive
positions. He would not appoint them ministers since this
would violate the Constitution (which requires that ministers
be elected MPs).

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SAG Patience Not Unlimited
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4. (C) Responding to PolCounselor's question about whether
Facilitator of the Burundi Peace Process, Minister for Safety
and Security Charles Nqakula, might travel to Burundi soon,
Mamabolo noted that Nqakula was busy with his domestic crime
portfolio. He said Nqakula tentatively plans to travel to
Burundi in May, but Mamabolo believes there is little Nqakula
can do; it will take Head of State intervention to jumpstart
the peace process. The South African Mediation was drafting
its report to the regional leadership, principally Ugandan
President Museveni and Tanzanian President Kikwete, to seek
their guidance. (NOTE: Mamabolo denied rumors the FNL peace
talks might move to Pretoria. END NOTE.)


PRETORIA 00001289 002 OF 002



5. (C) Mamabolo noted that more than 1000 South African
troops are deployed in Burundi under an AU mandate waiting
for the FNL demobilization and disarmament to begin. This is
costing the SAG USD 1.5 million per month, and the South
African Department of Defence is beginning to question the
deployment. European partners are willing to fund the South
Africa facilitation office in Bujumbura, and the cost of the
150 VIP protectors to guard the FNL leadership, but not the
ongoing cost of the core military deployment. The South
African cabinet initially agreed to a six-month AU deployment
in Burundi, and more than three months have passed with no
progress.

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CNDD-FDD Tensions
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6. (C) Asked about the recent leadership change in the
CNDD-FDD, Mamabolo said the intra-party tensions were a "big
worry." Former party leader Hussein Rajabu may be out of
power, but "he will not just go away." South Africa is
urging President Nkurunziza to find some sort of
"accommodation" for Rajabu, arguing that it is better to keep
him in the tent than have him on the outside. Mamabolo added
that Nkurunziza does not appear to be taking this counsel.

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Comment
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7. (C) The usually affable Mamabolo was visibly frustrated by
the FNL and their shifting demands. South Africa has
invested too much to wash its hands of the Burundi peace
process, but the SAG likely will look for ways to intensify
pressure on the FNL to rejoin the process, particularly as
the costs of the SAG military deployment pile up. We should
not expect too much from Facilitator Nqakula, who is tied up
with the thorny domestic crime issue. Given the difficulty
of his day job and the continuing complexity of the FNL peace
process, Nqakula is probably not the right man for the
Burundi job -- but we have seen no signs that Mbeki intends
to replace him.
BOST