ANC NEC REJECTS INTERNAL HOAX EMAIL REPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001090 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR SF SUBJECT: ANC NEC REJECTS INTERNAL HOAX EMAIL REPORT REF: 05 PRETORIA 4340 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Don Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. SUMMARY. (C) The ANC's National Executive Committee (NEC) on 16 March firmly rejected the results of an internal investigation into the origins of "hoax emails" between government officials regarding the succession battle. The rejection chalks up a victory for Mbeki, but backfires on ANC Secretary General Kgalema Motlanthe, who pushed for the SIPDIS additional investigation. The report dealt with the origin of the emails and the roots of tension within the ANC tripartite alliance. The NEC ultimately rejected the report because the task team could not verify the authenticity of the emails, nor could it add new insight into ANC divisions. However, the fact that the ANC conducted its own investigation into the hoax emails after the National Intelligence Agency (NIA) determined them to be fabricated highlights the mistrust and tensions within the ANC as it moves toward the election of its new president in December. END SUMMARY. -------------- BACKGROUND TO HOAX EMAIL SCANDAL -------------- ¶2. (U) In October 2005, NIA Director General Billy Masetlha and two of his deputies were suspended after the NIA was accused of spying on prominent businessman and Mbeki ally Saki Macozoma. Almost immediately afterward, several incriminating emails between government officials loyal to Mbeki were allegedly intercepted by NIA agents. The emails discussed ways of removing succession "stumbling blocks," specifically by discrediting ANC Deputy President Jacob Zuma and Secretary General Kgalema Motlanthe. Intelligence Inspector General Zilile Ngcakani found the emails to be artificially constructed and fingered Masetlha as one of the architects behind both the unlawful surveillance and the hoax emails. In May 2006, the Cabinet accepted Ngcakani's report and Mbeki fired Masetlha for his involvement in the scandal. -------------- ANC'S PARALLEL INVESTIGATION -------------- ¶3. (C) Despite NIA's findings, Motlanthe continued to believe that the emails were authentic. He appointed an ANC task team under struggle stalwart Hermanus Loots (alias James Stuart) to conduct a party inquiry into the matter. Political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi told POLOFF on 15 March that Mbeki, who has not been on speaking terms with Motlanthe in years, considered the case closed and did not support the parallel investigation. The NEC, however, allowed Motlanthe to set up the task team in April 2006. Stuart's findings were presented to and rejected by the majority of NEC members in a special closed session on 16 March. At the meeting, Mbeki told NEC members that the report could not be taken seriously, while Zuma expressed his pleasure that the investigation was conducted outside the NEC. The text of Stuart's task team report has not been made public. NEC members told reporters that at the end of the meeting, every copy of the report was accounted for and returned to Motlanthe. -------------- REPORT INCONCLUSIVE ON EMAILS -------------- ¶4. (C) Matshiqi told POLOFF that the task team could not verify the authenticity of the emails because they did not have the power to subpoena, search, seize, or cross-examine witnesses. Most press reports confirm this, although the Mail & Guardian goes further to report that the team's contracted IT specialists found the emails to be "genuine," but that they were not sent by any of the purported authors, which included business tycoon Saki Macozoma, National Director of Public Prosecutions Vusi Pikoli, Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, and Democratic Alliance leader Tony Leon, among others. One of these IT specialists, known in the report as Mr. X, apparently volunteered his hacking services to the team to demonstrate how the alleged emails were intercepted in the first place. ¶5. (C) According to press reports, most NEC members have described the task team investigation as "clumsy" and "a farce." One of the main criticisms was Masetlha's active involvement in the investigation, which led one of the task team members, Josiah Jele, to withdraw from the investigation PRETORIA 00001090 002 OF 002 and refuse to sign the final report. Press reports note that Masetlha sat in on some of the proceedings and questioned some of the witnesses. Nevertheless, Matshiqi believes there is a strong possibility that even if the emails were fabricated, the content (i.e., a conspiracy to keep Zuma and Motlanthe from playing a leadership role in the ANC) may have reflected actual conversations about how to influence the succession race. -------------- MBEKI IS ROOT OF ANC DISCORD -------------- ¶6. (SBU) According to press reports, the second part of the task team's report examined the roots of political divisions within the ANC and its alliance partners (COSATU and SACP) over the past 12 years. Many who "testified" before the task team (and Masetlha) blamed the divisions on Mbeki's leadership style, which was described as aloof, unresponsive, defensive, and indecisive. Most NEC members reportedly responded by saying that these allegations are not new and rejected this part of the report as well. The report also addressed upcoming ANC succession by suggesting that it would be a "demotion" for Mbeki to stay on as party president and proposed that both Mbeki and Zuma consider dropping out of the ANC presidential race to help heal party rifts. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) The NEC's decision to reject the task team's report is a blow for Motlanthe, who appears to believe there is a conspiracy against himself and Zuma. While it is definitely a victory for Mbeki, who never supported the process in the first place, it is not necessarily an overwhelming one. The report's findings were anything but favorable on Mbeki's leadership style and indirectly failed to support the President's decision to fire Masetlha by not concluding one way or another if the emails were indeed "hoaxes." Moreover, media coverage of the report is likely to resonate with some ANC members outside the NEC, especially Zuma supporters. The secrecy surrounding the report may also spark a broader call to release the findings before the ANC's upcoming policy conference in June. ¶8. (C) The "hoax emails" and parallel investigations highlight the sharp tensions in the ANC leading up to the December conference, when it will elect its new leader. Even though the report was rejected, the fact that some doubted the Intelligence Inspector General's investigation enough to allow the party investigation reaffirms that there are influential pockets of the ANC who do not trust the President or state organs. BOST