VAN ECK SAYS FNL WANTS POLITICAL TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 001077 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/C G. MALLORY, AF/S M. TABLER-STONE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2017 TAGS: PREL BY SF SUBJECT: VAN ECK SAYS FNL WANTS POLITICAL TALKS REF: A. BUJUMBURA 165 ¶B. BUJUMBURA 204 ¶C. PRETORIA 293 Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Catherine Kay. Reasons 1.4(b ) and (d). ¶1. (C) Burundi's last remaining rebel group, the Palipehutu-FNL, refuses to rejoin the peace process until the Government of Burundi (GOB) agrees to negotiate "political issues" with them, according to Institute for Security Studies (ISS) analyst (and de facto FNL advisor) Jan van Eck (protect). The FNL pulled out of the key body implementing the ceasefire accord, the Joint Verification Monitoring Mechanism (JVMM),on March 8. The FNL also wants the GOB to release FNL political prisoners, as agreed in the ceasefire accord, and to provide food to its combatants. Van Eck, who met with the FNL delegation in Bujumbura March 27, told PolOff by telephone from Burundi that the FNL "will not budge" from its position. He views the current impasse as a "tipping point" in the peace process. ¶2. (C) From the FNL perspective, these are not new demands. The GOB, backed by the South African Facilitation, promised the FNL they would hold talks on the political issues raised in the June 18 Principles accord. This has not happened. Despite the current focus on military issues, the FNL believes the Agreement on Principles toward Lasting Peace, Security and Stability in Burundi (signed June 18, 2006) is just as important to the peace process as the Comprehensive Ceasefire Agreement (signed September 7, 2006). ¶3. (C) Van Eck believes that the South African Facilitation has lost leverage with the GOB because the Nkurunziza government views South Africa as too close to former CNDD-FDD party leader Hussein Rajabu. Van Eck is not aware of any plans by the Facilitator of the peace process, SAG Minister of Safety and Security Charles Nqakula, to travel to Burundi. The South African military general who heads the JVMM only has a mandate to deal with the technicalities of cantonment and disarmament, not political issues. ¶4. (C) Turning to the domestic situation, van Eck has heard multiple reports during his trip about the "weakening position" of President Nkurunziza. The departure of Rajabu has left a "power vacuum," with no strong person to take firm decisions. Van Eck says that Nkurunziza is not filling -- or is unable to fill -- the vacuum. BOST