SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF USD(P) EDELMAN TO PRAGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRAGUE 000316 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE EDELMAN FROM AMBASSADOR GRABER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2017 TAGS: OVIP PREL PGOV EZ SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF USD(P) EDELMAN TO PRAGUE Classified By: Ambassador Richard W. Graber for reasons 1.4 b+d ¶1. (C) Eric, Welcome back to Prague. Your visit provides an excellent opportunity to reinforce the themes concerning missile defense that Secretary Gates relayed to Czech President Klaus during his visit to Washington earlier this month. Your meetings in Prague -- with Deputy Defense Minister Bartak and Deputy Prime Minister Vondra -- and your press interviews are certain to receive considerable scrutiny among the press and public both in the Czech Republic and more broadly in Europe. In addition, we will help you find a decent beer and bramborak -- or at least, bramboracka -- after your decade-long absence from the Golden City. ¶2. (C) You will no doubt have a great deal of background information on missile defense and Czech contributions to the war on terror. This message will provide some of the political context in which your visit takes place, and update you on developments since we met in Washington on March 8. ¶3. (C) PM Topolanek told me Friday that the Czechs will answer our January note by the end of the week (that is, by March 30). The government will meet on March 28, the day after your visit, to formally approve the note. The opposition CSSD held its annual party congress over the weekend in Brno, and I addressed the congress on missile defense. As you know, the CSSD is generally opposed to MD, although Chairman Jiri Paroubek has kept his options open, at least in private. He told me in a meeting a week ago that he is personally in favor of the radar facility, and will work to ensure that his party maintains flexibility on this (although we can be sure that his public comments to CSSD delegates will be more strident). CSSD flexibility is the key to winning an eventual vote in parliament later this year, since the Greens, the smallest party in the three-party coalition, are not reliable on MD. You will have the opportunity to meet with several reasonable but skeptical CSSD and Green parliamentarians over breakfast on Wednesday. ¶4. (C) Recent threats from Russia have not affected Prague as they have Warsaw and Berlin. Foreign Minister Schwarzenberg has stated flatly that the Russians will not tell the Czechs what to do. Domestically, Russian threats have hurt opponents of MD rather than scaring supporters. However, the debate in Germany is more worrisome to the Czech government. The Czech leaders hope Merkel will keep Steinmeyer (and Beck) at bay. NATO will play a big role in reassuring the opposition CSSD's more thoughtful members that they can support MD and still be good Europeans. The SYG's recent comments in support of MD were very helpful in this regard, and the Czech leadership looks to us to steer NATO in a supportive direction. ¶5. (C) Your visit is the first significant MD-related event following the CSSD Congress. The congress, your visit, and the Czech dipnote response will accelerate public interest, and Czech governmental engagement, on MD. The Czechs are placing great hopes in General Obering's visit on April 23. Of note: sensitive to opposition complaints that the USG is dictating the MD process, the Czech leadership wants to formally "invite" General Obering. They will do this after a meeting of their National Security Council on April 3, so have asked that we not make any specific reference to Obering's planned April 23 visit. We have spoken only in general terms about an Obering visit in April, and ask that you do the same. ¶6. (C) The Czech PD effort has been intentionally low-key in advance of the CSSD Congress and the dipnote delivery. Topolanek told me today that he has asked that a new PD coordinator be appointed who will report directly to him -- confirmation that the Czech realize they need to do a better job. DPM Sasha Vondra works in Topolanek's office, so it's clear he'll be steering this enhanced public diplomacy campaign, working closely with DFM Tomas Pojar at the Foreign Ministry. ¶7. (C) Vondra will be anxious to hear when the USG will provide on-the-ground technical expertise to bolster the public effort that the Czechs will start ramping up. This technical expert does not necessarily need to become a public face, but is certainly important to provide the Czech public faces the facts they need to dispell the great deal of misinformation currently in circulation, particularly on health and environmental issues. However, we learned Friday that MDA has postponed the visit of a technical expert that was planned to begin in early April. We need to get this rescheduled. ¶8. (C) Your press contact will consist of a pool spray after your MOD meeting, at which you may be asked a question or two; an interview in Jiri Roskot of Pravo, a well informed and fair reporter representing a newspaper skeptical of MD; an an appearance on "Udalosti," Czech television's premier evening news show. In your press interviews, stress four facts: the U.S. dipnote, and the expected Czech reply, are not the final agreement, but only the start of a negotiating process between two equal partners, and this is in the end a Czech decision; the U.S. is committed to making sure that the process is fully transparent and to providing answers to all questions raised by Czech citizens and officials; the threat from long-range ballistic missiles is real and the proposed assets in Central Europe will protect Europe (as well as the U.S.); and of course, the MD is not threat to the Russians and is complementary to NATO planning, and indeed, strengthens NATO by ensuring protection of European Allies rather than just North America. On the first point: the Czech government has briefed the Czech parliament on the content of our dipnote, and some members of parliament promptly leaked that information to the press. Reporters may try to drag you into discussion about the content of our note. You will want to sidestep such questions, stating you don't discuss diplomatic correspondence. Finally, the Czech press is also aware that General Obering will be testifying in the House on the date of your visit, so you may get questions about the certainty of continued funding for the MDA. ¶9. (C) The question of visas may come up. The Czech press and politicians are following developments in the Congress closely and are aware that the Senate has passed a bill that would, under certain conditions, facilitate Czech entry into the visa waiver program. They also understand that this needs to be reconciled with House legislation. We have stressed that (a) the President has made good on his commitment in Tallinn to seek changes in legislation that would make it easier for the Central European allies to enter VWP, but (b) the Congressional process is not predictable -- the final form of legislation, and the date it will be approved, are not known. ¶10. (U) Unfortunately I will be in Ostrava during your visit, but leave you in Cameron's capable hands. Thanks in advance for coming to Prague to help us -- and enjoy your visit. GRABER