SCENESETTER FOR CZECH OPPOSITION LEADER PAROUBEK'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 001193

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE
MDA FOR S.WINKIE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CZECH OPPOSITION LEADER PAROUBEK'S
VISIT TO WASHINGTON

REF: A. PRAGUE 1153


B. PRAGUE 1174

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR MICHAEL DODMAN FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AN
D (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Jiri Paroubek, Chairman of the largest
Czech opposition party, CSSD or the Czech Social Democratic
Party, will visit Washington next week with the primary
purpose of discussing missile defense with U.S. policy
makers. To win the Czech parliament's approval of the MD
agreements, the Topolanek government will have to secure some
level of support from Paroubek and his CSSD. Although
Paroubek has repeatedly expressed his opposition to a Czech
MD site, he has always been careful to caveat his position
sufficiently so as to leave himself some maneuvering room.
His trip to Washington is therefore important because it can
arm Paroubek with arguments that could help him justify an
eventual shift in his position. END SUMMARY.

BACKGROUND ON PAROUBEK AND HIS DELEGATION
--------------


2. (C) Paroubek, a former Czech prime minister (2005-2006),
is the leader of the strongest party in the opposition, the
Czech Social Democrats. He is an ambitious, abrasive
politician, who has earned a nickname "Buldozer" for his
tough political tactics. Although his party has been at the
top in recent public opinion polls, Paroubek has not managed
to translate this good news into political capital. He has
been under attack in the media for his and his family's less
than transparent finances (ref A). The media has also been
merciless about his recent divorce and his relationship with
the much younger Petra Kovacova. (Note: Kovacova, a
professional interpreter, will accompany Paroubek on this
trip to Washington. Paroubek has mentioned publicly several
times that he and Kovacova will marry in the near future.
End Note.) Two of the CSSD deputy chairmen, Bohuslav Sobotka
and Zdenek Skromach, have stated publicly that they would
consider challenging Paroubek for the chairmanship at the
next party congress in 2009. Both have also surpassed
Paroubek in terms of popularity with the voters.


3. (C) Paroubek's delegation will also include Michal
Hasek, a Member of Parliament and Chairman of the CSSD club
in the Lower Chamber of the Parliament. Hasek, who is 31, is
a CSSD party operative and a Paroubek loyalist. Although he
has no direct influence on foreign policy deliberations of
the parliament, his position as the CSSD whip and as one of
Paroubek's top advisers make him an important interlocutor.

PAROUBEK'S POLITICAL CALCULUS ON MISSILE DEFENSE
-------------- ---


4. (C) Paroubek has been consistent in his opposition of the
proposed Czech MD site. His opposition is not based on
ideology, but rather on opinion polls. With the majority of
Czechs opposing the radar, Paroubek can score easy political
points by aligning his position with polling results. He has
been quite open with us in this regard, frequently justifying
his position on MD by referring to the Czech public's
opposition to the U.S. proposal. While recent public opinion
polls seemed to indicate a decline in the Czechs' negative
attitudes to the radar, it is unlikely that we will see a
shift in public opinion that would be significant enough to
affect Paroubek's position. Rather Paroubek will have to
adjust his position on MD in spite of the polls.


5. (C) He may do this for a number of reasons. His
short-term political ambition of assuming the speaker's chair
in the Parliament is one possible reason (ref A). Paroubek
himself suggested that he might be willing to make a deal
with Topolanek over the Czech EU Presidency and other foreign
policy priorities. His long-term ambition is to return to
the prime minister's office. Although this means that he has
to weigh every key domestic and foreign policy issue very
carefully so as not to lose public support, Paroubek is savvy
enough to know that good relations with the United States
will also be important. This is why he has announced
publicly -- and stressed to us privately -- that he would not
abrogate the MD agreements if he is elected prime minister in
the next election, which is expected in 2010.


6. (C) Although Paroubek will be looking to make a political
deal with the Topolanek government, he will still have to
sell it to his party and to give himself some cover with the
voters. Next week's meetings in Washington can help Paroubek

PRAGUE 00001193 002 OF 002


build his case. He has repeatedly indicated to us that the
threat will be the key issue for determining his position.
Most recently, Paroubek told Ambassador Graber on November 1:
"what will be decisive is whether Iran will have ballistic
missiles; if so, then we can work with that." However, in
his meeting with Defense Secretary Gates, Paroubek cautioned
that the evidence would have to be "stronger" than what had
been made available on Iraq and its WMD program. Paroubek
may also consider the "2 plus 2" proposal of delaying
activation of the Czech and Polish sites as helpful.
Paroubek's reaction to the media frenzy following Secretary
Gates' visit to Prague was relatively muted, a good
indication that he was intrigued by the proposal and what it
could mean in his own political calculations (ref B).

OTHER TOPICS
--------------


7. (C) Paroubek will also seek to use the U.S. visit to add
some polish to his foreign policy credentials. In addition
to MD, he has requested briefings on Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan,
North Korea, and Kosovo. Since the Czech parliament will be
debating and voting on the foreign deployments bill, which
includes the planned Czech PRT in Logar and the Czech
contingent in Kosovo, his discussions with Washington
policy-makers on Afghanistan and Kosovo will be helpful (but
Paroubek will also work to present his personal view that a
settlement on Kosovo should be delayed to avoid offending the
Serbs). Paroubek is also looking for ways to build links
between his CSSD and the Democratic Party. He therefore
welcomed the planned meetings with DNC Chairman Howard Dean
and Democratic lawmakers.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) Paroubek has not visited Washington before. He is
disappointed that he did not have the chance for an official
visit while he was prime minister. As he will no doubt
emphasize, Paroubek considers himself a friend of the United
States. In all his meetings, expressions on thanks for
Paroubek's work as prime minister in support of Transatlantic
priorities will help to further our objectives for this visit.
Graber