SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF DEFENSE SECRETARY GATES

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRAGUE 001154

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR DEFENSE SECRETARY GATES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2017
TAGS: OVIP PREL MARR PGOV NATO EZ
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF DEFENSE SECRETARY GATES
TO PRAGUE

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Mary Thompson-Jones for
reasons 1.4 b+d


1. (C) Your October 23 visit to Prague will be important to
our effort to win Czech approval of our missile defense (MD)
proposals, and to generally solidify the partnership with a
key U.S. ally. While MD is likely to dominate discussions
with government officials and members of parliament, you
should also plan to discuss Czech contributions in Iraq and
Afghanistan, and exchange views on European issues, including
developments in Russia and Kosovo.

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Domestic context
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2. (C) Nearly 18 years after the 1989 Velvet Revolution, the
Czech Republic today is a prosperous market economy, a stable
democracy, and a committed American ally. Accession to the
European Union in 2004, like accession to NATO in 1999, has
solidified and accelerated the transition away from the
country's communist past. The economy today is very strong
and one of Europe's fastest growing, with 6% GDP growth in
the past two years, low inflation, and declining
unemployment. Strong exports and continued healthy inflows of
foreign investment drive the economy.


3. (C) Elections in June 2006 produced a deadlock with the
200-seat Chamber of Deputies split evenly between left and
right. The country was without a confirmed government for
seven months while the politicians sorted out a compromise.
In January PM Topolanek won a vote of confidence with the
help of two defectors from the opposition. Topolanek heads
the center-right Civic Democrats (ODS) and governs together
with the smaller Christian Democrats and the Czech Greens.
Both because it lacks a reliable majority in Parliament and
because of internal conflicts among coalition partners --
particularly involving the Greens -- the long-term stability
of the Topolanek government is far from certain. The Social
Democrats (CSSD),led by former Prime Minister Jiri Paroubek,
are an active opposition party, but have so far refrained
from any attempt to bring down the government. Paroubek has
sent signals that, in return for assuming the position of
Speaker of Parliament, he is interested in cooperating with
the ODS-led government. While many scenarios are possible
going forward, most observers expect the current government
will remain in power at least through the Czech EU Presidency
in 2009.


4. (C) President Vaclav Klaus, in office since February 2003
and up for re-election early next year, is the most popular
politician in the country. He is the founder and honorary
chair of ODS. He does not have a good relationship with PM
Topolanek. Klaus is a former economist and father of the
economic reforms launched in the early 1990s. He is a devoted
libertarian with a passion for individual liberty and free
markets; he recently caused a stir by lashing out against
global warming as a new orthodoxy limiting personal freedom.
He is instinctively pro-American. While he does not hesitate
to criticize USG policies with which he disagrees (most
famously, Klaus was a critic the 2003 invasion of Iraq),he
feels at home with Americans and travels there frequently to
lecture.

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Czech-U.S. relations
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5. (C) Our two countries enjoy excellent relations. We have
worked very well with both of the main parties to pursue
common goals. The country is active within NATO and the EU,
and generally supportive of U.S. policies. This is
particularly the case regarding democracy promotion. The
Czechs are our strongest partners in Europe on Cuba, and
active supporters of the democratic opposition in Cuba.
Likewise in Belarus, Burma, Iraq and other countries in
transition, the Czech government and NGOs work to support
peaceful transformation and pass along the lessons learned
from their own history. Prague has been home to the
U.S.-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty since 1995, and
has actively supported broadcasts to countries in Eastern
Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East.

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Missile defense
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6. (C) The USG has been discussing potential cooperation with
the Czechs on our ballistic missile defense program since

2002. We informed the Czechs in January this year that we
wanted to begin negotiations on a radar at a site they had
offered on the Brdy military facility not far from Prague.
The Czech government reaction was immediate and positive,
with the newly confirmed Topolanek government calling a press
conference the next day to announce the news and promising to
work with us. We launched negotiations in May and hope to
conclude agreements by the end of the year.


7. (C) The politics of MD in the Czech Republic are
complicated: Topolanek's ODS strongly supports; the small
Christian Democrats are less solidly behind the proposal; the
Green party is openly skeptical and is currently not
considered fully reliable on the vote that will take place
next year on the negotiated agreements. The Social Democrats
are generally opposed; despite Chairman Paroubek's consistent
rhetoric against MD, in private meetings he has left the door
open to his party providing some support in the end.
Paroubek will visit Washington next month, on a trip
organized by the MDA, which will include extensive briefings
designed to counter Paroubek's assertion that the missile
threat from the Middle East is not real. President Klaus has
stated that he supports the negotiations moving forward, and
in theory supports the radar deployment, but will reserve
final judgment until all the details are negotiated; he is
unlikely to take a strong public stand prior to the February
presidential elections.


8. (C) Polls show that the public is generally opposed to the
radar. The most recent survey showed 49% of the public
against, which is a noticeable improvement from the 60-70%
disapproval ratings in the first half of 2007. Although only
some 20% support the radar, we are encouraged that over half
of those opposing said they could see supporting the radar if
they had more information. Our priority, and that of the
Czech government's MD communication team under Tomas Klvana,
is to provide as much information as possible for Czechs to
make an informed decision. Recent months have seen clear
success in refuting misinformation and providing assurances
related to the health and environmental impacts of the radar.
A major focus going forward will be to ensure a strong
linkage between the U.S. MD system and NATO. This is
particularly important to win the support of skeptics among
the Greens and Social Democrats, and could be one of the key
issues on which the vote in parliament hinges. Obtaining a
strong declaration at the April Bucharest NATO Summit is a
top priority, and explains why the Czechs intend to delay a
vote in parliament until the spring.


9. (C) Given the lack of a stable parliamentary majority for
the coalition, plus doubts about MD among some members of the
coalition, we will continue to focus much of our attention on
parliament. You will have coffee during your visit with a
group of key parliamentary leaders and members. Some are
supporters, but most are thoughtful skeptics who we believe
may eventually vote in favor. The coffee will be a chance
for you to present an overview of how MD fits into the
broader USG view of transatlantic security arrangements,
offer some thoughts from your recent talks in Moscow, and
take questions. Among the points to stress with this group:
the urgency of the threat to the U.S. and Europe; commitment
to linking the U.S. MD system with NATO; commitment to
balanced negotiations with the Czech Republic and full
sharing of information about health and other concerns;
commitment to working with Russia to address their concerns
(but without providing a veto); bipartisan political support
in the U.S. for MD; appreciation for Czech willingness to
host MD assets and Czech contributions to war on terror.


10. (C) The saber rattling from Moscow has not had a
significant impact on Czech public opinion. If anything, it
tends to increase support by reminding Czechs of the
importance of a strong transatlantic tie to balance an
increasingly aggressive Russia. The Czechs support our
current approach to Russia: taking seriously their concerns
and working with them, but not granting Moscow a veto over
Czech foreign policy decisions. The Czech government would
appreciate a read out from your recent 2 2 talks in Moscow.
They are particularly interested in our on-going negotiations
with Moscow and the impact of the possible use of the Qabala
radar on the proposed facility in the Czech Republic.

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Iraq and Afghanistan
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11. (C) The Czechs remain active supporters in the war on
terror. They currently have approximately 100 troops in
Iraq, around 230 in Afghanistan, and close to 500 in the
Balkans. The 2008 deployment plan now being debated within
the government envisions maintaining the 100 troops in Basra,
although the Czechs are considering a request, made recently
by DASD Cagan, to increase the deployment in Iraq to 120.
There is concern within the government that an increase in
Iraq, at the same time that the U.S. and UK are planning to
draw down, would not win support in the divided parliament.
This could also disrupt the Czechs' main goal for 2008:
standing up the first PRT in Logar province, Afghanistan.
The government has approved the PRT with a target start date
of mid-March 2008. They plan an active civilian component,
and will send an advance team to Logar -- where they will
partner with the U.S. TF DIABLO at FOB SHANK -- in late
October. Obtaining necessary armored vehicles is critical to
the success of the PRT. During her recent visit, DASD Cagan
promised to try to provide up to twenty HMMWV (Type 1151),as
well as lift and sustain support, for the PRT. Ms. Cagan also
asked the Czechs to send troops to support the Dutch in
Uruzgan, Afghanistan; the Czechs are currently discussing
this possibility with the Dutch.

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Defense budget and other issues
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12. (C) In general, we hope you will use your visit to thank
the Czechs for their strong support of U.S. foreign policy
goals, including on missile defense, war on terror, and
support for democracy. One point you should make to the
Czechs is their defense budget. The growth in defense
spending in recent years has lagged behind economic growth,
and as a result is projected to be below 1.5% of GDP in 2008.
With the debate on the 2008 budget just starting, a clear
message on the importance of meeting NATO defense spending
targets could help to shift the debate in favor of those
supporting more robust defense spending.


13. (C) Other issues that may come up during your meetings:

-- Kosovo: The Czechs support USG positions on the future of
Kosovo. They will recognize an independent Kosovo, should
talks fail to reach a mutual agreement in December, but
intend to wait for a larger EU member to recognize first.

-- Energy security: The Czechs, and the prime minister in
particular, are very concerned about energy security and the
reliability of Russian supplies. The Czechs get all of their
gas, and 70% of their oil, from Russia. They would like to
see both the EU and NATO be more engaged on this question.

-- Visa waiver: Congress in August passed legislation to
reform the U.S. visa waiver program, partially meeting the
President's request to modernize the visa waiver program to
permit swift entry by close allies like the Czechs. The
Czech Republic is one of the few countries currently meeting
the criteria imposed by Congress. However, as leaders of a
regional effort to bring in all of the Central European EU
members, the Czechs have continued to press for more
flexibility in the legislation. The President has stated he
will seek such flexibility. Meanwhile, we are encouraging the
Czechs to work with DHS on meeting requirements under
existing legislation.

-- Topolanek visit to U.S.: PM Topolanek hopes to visit
Washington in the coming months. He has proposed a visit in
December. Based on NSC feedback, we are encouraging the
Czechs to delay this until February.

-- EU Presidency: The Czech governmnt is increasingly
focused on their first EU Presidency, during the first half
of 2009. They follow the French Presidency.

-- UN Security Council: On October 16 the Czechs lost in
their bid for a seat on the Security Council. Croatia won
the seat for this region.
Graber