TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO POLITICAL ROUND-UP, SEPTEMBER 5, 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT OF SPAIN 000906 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CAR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV KJUS KCRM TD SUBJECT: TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO POLITICAL ROUND-UP, SEPTEMBER 5, 2007 ¶1. In this edition of the Roundup: ¶A. PNM HOLDS SPECIAL CONVENTION ¶B. ELECTION POLLS TELL DIFFERENT STORIES ¶C. PNM DISCARDING MP'S BEFORE ELECTION ¶D. MONTEIL SCANDAL PLAGUES PARTY -------------- PNM HOLDS SPECIAL CONVENTION -------------- ¶2. On September 1, Poloffs attended a PNM special convention and heard PM Patrick Manning deliver the keynote speech, widely viewed as designed to position him and his party for the upcoming election race. A large and predominately Afro-Trini crowd, with some Indo-Trinidadians, crowded the auditorium and adjoining areas in hopes that PM Manning would announce the election date. Although he did not do so, PNM supporters rallied behind Manning's message of a positive, comprehensive plan that would fulfill Trinidad and Tobago's goal of becoming a developed country by 2020. ¶3. In addition to focusing on diversifying the economy, upgrading infrastructure and providing local government with more autonomy, Manning stated the PNM is committed to verifying the "integrity" of all candidates. This statement came in response to several recent incidents that called into question the probity of some PNM members. -------------- ELECTION POLLS TELL DIFFERENT STORIES -------------- ¶3. An August 4 UWI/ANSA McAl poll indicates that the newly formed Congress of the People (COP) opposition party, trails the ruling People's National Movement (PNM) by only one point. The poll showed the PNM at 20% and COP at 19%. However, a North American Caribbean Teachers' Association (NACTA) poll taken August 22 completely contradicts those findings and predicts the COP will not win a single seat in the upcoming elections. COP campaign manager Gerald Yetming claims that the NACTA poll is severely flawed and that an in-house survey indicates a close race. ¶4. Embassy sources claim the UWI/Ansa poll is biased and slanted toward the COP for undisclosed reasons. Other media reports support this conclusion. These same sources believe a tactical alliance with the United National Congress (UNC) is the only way the COP might realize some success, but this likely would alienate the COP's Afro-Trinidadian wing and potentially call into question COP founder Winston Dookeran's insistence on integrity above all else. �A;Comment: The poll results should be taken with a grain of salt. Both polls were low-budget and were at least partially funded by interested political parties. However, in the September 9 edition of the "Guardian," NACTA Director Vishnu Bisram defended the accuracy of his poll, noting that NACTA had correctly called every election in Trinidad and Tobago since 1995. END COMMENT. -------------- PNM DISCARDING MP'S -------------- ¶5. During the PNM's special convention September 1, PM Manning asked the rank and file to support the party's move against Members of Parliament (MP) who have failed to discharge their representative responsibilities. A few senior MP's have lashed out at their political leader for reportedly using a secretly conducted internal poll as a screening mechanism to weed out ostensibly underperforming MPs from the General Election slate. ¶6. According to media reports, PNM insiders complain poll results are being used as justification to weed out Cabinet officials not willing to full tow Manning's line. Regardless, the effect of the poll has been widespread. Party leader and Trade Minister Ken Valley received only a 38% approval rating and will need to fight to remain a candidate and save his political career. Meanwhile, Minister of Health John Rahael, who received high ratings in the poll, has decided to retire from politics, at least partially because of a series of financial scandals involving his family. With the addition of five new seats (for a total of 41),and with as many as ten current PNM MP's being asked not to run for re-election, the next parliament will have a new look regardless of the voting outcome. COMMENT: If Valley departs he will leave big shoes to fill; political analysts describe him as an excellent leader of business in the House. END COMMENT. -------------- MONTEIL SCANDAL PLAGUES PNM -------------- PORT OF SP 00000906 002 OF 002 ¶7. The issue of PNM treasurer Andre Monteil's acquisition of Home Mortgage Bank shares (HMB) continues to generate intense debate and interest in the country, more than four months after it was first raised in Parliament by Opposition MP Ganga Singh. Singh alleged that Montiel had acted improperly (although technically not illegally) by purchasing some $110 million worth of HMB shares while he was Chairman of the HMB, then a state entity undergoing privatization. ¶8. The controversy escalated recently when PM Manning claimed the matter had been turned over to the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP),which was not the case. Manning later apologized in Parliament for his misstatement and said that while the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had cleared Monteil of any wrongdoing, the case had not yet been forwarded to the DPP. Manning continued by asking the GOTT to pass special legislation which would force Monteil to re-transfer the shares at no profit. Using this case as an example of Manning's "no one is above the law" policy, the PM is successfully spinning this case in his favor. AUSTIN