TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO'S TAKE ON CLIMATE CHANGE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT OF SPAIN 001159 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR OES/EGC SAN JOSE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL HUB BERNIE LINK E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV KGHG ENRG TD SUBJECT: TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO'S TAKE ON CLIMATE CHANGE REF: (A) POS 584, (B) USUN NEW Y 1040 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Energy-rich Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) is not the typical tourism-dependant, energy importing Caribbean nation, and at the upcoming UN Climate Change conference, its position may be less defined than that of its neighbors. With its industrial base and high per capita greenhouse gas emissions, T&T is still in the process of developing its climate change policies. While sharing the goal of worldwide emissions reductions to achieve less than a two degree Celsius temperature increase, T&T is more interested in increasing resources for adaptation to climate change and gaining access to related technologies than seeking punitive caps. Post believes T&T officials would welcome dialogue and engagement on these topics as they begin to formulate climate change policies. END SUMMARY. -------------- T&T: ENERGY-RICH SIDS -------------- ¶2. (U) Similar to other small island developing states (SIDS) in the Caribbean, T&T is concerned about the potential consequences of climate change, especially sea level rise, weather pattern disruptions and increasingly frequent catastrophic events. However, T&T's natural circumstances, and thus its motivations, are quite different. Unlike its tourism-dependent neighbors, T&T exports natural gas and oil and has developed a significant industrial base. Thus, while its Caribbean brethren are concentrating on developing renewable energy to lower their high energy bill and to reduce emissions that could be catastrophic for their tourism industries, T&T subsidizes gasoline and offers extremely low-cost electric power as a way to locally "share" the wealth. As a result, T&T ranks as one of the top ten per capita carbon emitters worldwide and almost last in its use of alternative energy sources, with many plans on the drawing board but only a handful of solar water heaters actually in place. -------------- -------------- GOTT on Climate Change: Adaptation Then Mitigation -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) The GOTT started to examine the potential local impact of climate change as early as the 1990s when it formed the Cabinet-appointed "Working Group to Determine the Implications of Global Warming, Climate Change and Sea Level Rise," now headed by the Environmental Management Authority (EMA). In 2001, the Working Group released its Initial National Communication under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, providing an inventory of T&T's greenhouse gases by sector, a vulnerability analysis, and an analysis of research and training needed in order to develop the appropriate future mitigation and adaptation strategy. It is currently drafting a second communication, intended to provide a more accurate assessment of emissions and propose options for reducing these and adapting to climate change. ¶4. (SBU) While T&T recognizes the dangers posed by climate change, little has been done since the first national communication to mitigate emissions or put measures in place for adaptation. Prime Minister Patrick Manning announced on November 26, on the margins of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Uganda, that he has tasked Emily Dick-Forde, the newly appointed Minister of Planning, Housing and the Environment with developing a proposal for addressing greenhouse gases. He added upon his return from Uganda that T&T will continue to "use the gas we have," though he mused about implementing carbon scrubbing technologies for existing and future energy sector plants to address carbon dioxide emissions. It remains to be seen whether, and how quickly, these proposals are implemented. ¶5. (SBU) Adaptation strategies also are of increasing interest to the GOTT. Kishan Kumarsingh, chair of the T&T Cabinet-appointed Working Group and of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) of U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),acknowledged to EconOff that T&T should do more to reduce emissions, and he asserted it will. At the same time, he stated that adaptation rather than mitigation is T&T's priority, a view he justified by pointing out that his nation lacks market incentives to reduce energy consumption and develop alternative energy sources. He also noted that reducing T&T's emissions will have little impact on the global equation, since its share of global emissions is not significant. Adaptation, meanwhile, is critical because T&T and other SIDS will be disproportionately affected by climate change. PORT OF SP 00001159 002 OF 002 ¶6. (U) The idea that adaptation rather than mitigation should be a T&T and Caribbean focus was the subject of debate at two international conferences on climate change held in Port of Spain in June (ref A) and at subsequent local events. Many, including Kumarsingh, agree T&T should do its part to reduce emissions, especially as the Caribbean would accrue the greatest marginal gain from global emissions reductions. John Agard, chairman of the EMA and member of the UN's Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, also recently urged the GOTT to provide economic incentives, such as tax credits, for the private sector to invest in alternative energy sources and to implement and set targets for existing wind and solar energy proposals. At the same time, many feel that since the Caribbean will be disproportionately affected by a problem caused primarily by others, "northern" countries or other big emitters should bear prime responsibility for reducing global emissions, while the Caribbean deserves greater assistance for adaptation and mitigation (ref B). -------------- T&T in International Negotiations -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Asked about GOTT priorities in international climate change negotiations, Kumarsingh stated that T&T is firmly aligned with other SIDS in calling for meaningful emissions reductions to achieve less than a two degree Celsius increase in temperature from pre-industrial times. However, he agreed that the means for reaching this goal are open for discussion. Unsurprisingly, Kumarsingh also felt strongly that more resources should be devoted to adaptation. Another priority for T&T is increasing access to climate change related technologies. As former Vice Chair and Chair of the Expert Group on Technology Transfer under the UNFCCC, Kumarsingh argued that intellectual property "barriers" often made these technologies prohibitively expensive for the SIDS that need them most. He believes that mechanisms should be developed to increase access to such technology. ¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: For the last thirty years, T&T has pursued a policy of using its oil and natural gas to leverage industrial development, and over the last five years the GOTT has developed an explicit goal of achieving developed country status by 2020. Prime Minister Manning campaigned for a new term on this platform. Opposition party attempts to make the environment a campaign issue had little appeal to the majority of voters enjoying economic prosperity and more worried about crime and traffic congestion. Following the ruling party November 5 election victory, we do not foresee the GOTT changing course and making climate change a major policy concern. We do, however, expect more rhetorical flourishes in this area, if only to allow the GOTT to have a "track record" it can fall back upon when it hosts the 2009 Commonwealth Summit. ¶9. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED: Local commentators, and former Vice President Gore, have suggested a Caribbean UN voting bloc could help advance international action on climate change. While Kumarsingh said that T&T concurs with its CARICOM counterparts on climate change, it will be less open to binding emission caps than others. Reflecting that this issue may be in the mind of policy-makers here, Prime Minister Manning noted upon his return from the Commonwealth Summit that his nation might incur "penalties" under a Kyoto Protocol regime when T&T achieves developed nation status. Given its natural resources and industrial profile, cooperation on adaptation strategies and technologies, as well as disaster preparedness, may be the most constructive way to engage T&T on climate change as it moves to develop climate change policies. Such cooperation might help T&T maintain its focus on new technology and adaptation methods despite the counter-pull of remaining inside a potentially more vociferous CARICOM "consensus." END COMMENT. AUSTIN