ELECTIONS: TEN DAYS TO GO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT OF SPAIN 001077 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SOCI TD SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: TEN DAYS TO GO SENSITVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Trinidad and Tobago's citizens are experiencing high intensity campaigning with only ten days until the elections, and seem convinced that this vote will have long-lasting implications. The ruling People's National Movement (PNM) seems confident of victory and a growing number of pundits agree this is the most likely election outcome. The two opposition parties, the Congress of the People (COP) and the United National Congress-Alliance (UNC-A),continue fighting each other as much as the PNM. Both publicly and privately still express the expectation they will emerge victorious on November 5, though the UNC implies it might squeak to a majority while the COP predicts it will either win big or lose big. END SUMMARY. -------------- Dirty Politicking or Politicking As Usual? -------------- ¶2. (SBU) As the election clock winds down, claims of &dirty politicking8 are heating up. Police Commissioner Trevor Paul has made public appeals for a clean campaign. Though the level of mischief so far is actually low, what has occurred has gotten major media play. COP candidate Marlene Coudray,s campaign office, for example, was vandalized and PNM loyalists supposedly did not allow her to distribute campaign flyers. In an October 25 meeting with Poloffs, another COP candidate said some PNM loyalists living in government-built housing projects actually confronted Coudray with guns and refused to allow her to enter their neighborhood. ¶3. (SBU) The COP is not the only victim, though, as a few PNM billboards have been destroyed and UNC offices vandalized. For his part, Prime Minister Patrick Manning suggests the occasional incidents are a result of the infighting between the COP and the UNC. Others have downplayed these reports, noting that these could easily have just been criminal acts in a society suffering under the weight of rampant crime. -------------- Running on Two Citizenships? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Another issue that has arisen involves whether a couple of UNC candidates are eligible to stand for election since they enjoy dual-citizenship ) one from the U.S. and the other from the UK. Section 48 (1) of the TT constitution states that no person who has sworn a voluntary allegiance to another country shall be eligible to hold a seat in the House of Representatives. The two candidates argue that they had no control over where they were born and received passports of those other nations as children and, as such, they should not be penalized. In a meeting with Poloffs, a noted election analyst pointed out that one of the questioned UNC candidates is running in the same constituency (district) as COP leader Winston Dookeran. If opposition voters don't see this UNC candidate as legitimate (and the COP has been running ads telling people not to waste their votes on him), they might throw their support to Dookeran. The &pin action8 on this might even spread to other marginal districts, the analyst suggested, since opposition voters who wondered whether Dookeran could win a seat could take heart from this turn of events and stay loyal (or move to) the COP. (Note: A similar issue involving two MPs with dual citizenship arose in 2001. The MPs lost their local case, but appealed to the Privy Council. The matter was rendered moot, though, when parliament dissolved before the case could be heard.) -------------- New Voters, New Allegiances? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) All three parties are courting the votes of women and youth. For the first time in election history, registered women voters (slightly) outnumber men. In addition, the PNM and UNC have hosted concerts to attract youth voters and the COP developed a youth manifesto (all three parties are finally unveiling their platforms after a long delay). Some analysts have posited that a large youth turnout would favor the COP, the self-declared party of change. -------------- Comment: What Will Be the Outcome? -------------- ¶6. (SBU) As candidates head into the final week of PORT OF SP 00001077 002 OF 002 campaigning, it is still difficult to predict the outcome of the election, though the PNM remains the favorite and increasingly so among most pundits. Manning has toned down his triumphalist rhetoric, though, which was not playing well, but also conceivably could have encouraged complacency among PNM voters. A high-PNM official, though, told us this week that the party will win at least 26 seats and went so far as to invite us to his victory &lime8 (party; we politely declined). ¶7. (SBU) The race is not in the bag, however, given the vagaries of politics, mixed and unreliable polling, and the fact that the combined opposition vote probably exceeds the PNM vote. If the COP can ride the wave it predicts is building and drive the UNC into a distant third place, it could surprise. According to some election analysts to whom we spoke, as well as many COP insiders, it is plausible the COP could win the election or take no seats at all. The party says for this wave to crest on election day, it will need a large voter surge (beyond the normal mid- to high-60 percent turnout). The UNC, for its part, is banking on its traditional voters staying loyal or returning to the fold on November 5 and it squeaking through to victory. KUSNITZ