ELECTIONS: THREE WEEKS TO GO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT OF SPAIN 001030

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR AND INR/IAA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SOCI TD
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: THREE WEEKS TO GO


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Manning dissolved
Parliament on September 28, calling elections for
November 5. His PeopleQs National Movement (PNM)
comes into the race with several advantages, but
also faces dissension in its ranks and public
weariness over its continuance in office.
The PNM has presided over strong economic growth,
but struggled to combat the growing sense that crime
is out of control. Three weeks out from the vote it
remains the favorite, due to a strong party structure,
and the fact that it is facing a splintered opposition.
The race is not over, though, and both the United
National Congress (UNC) and the Congress of the People
(COP) parties have turned out large rally crowds, with
the UNC counting on winning its traditional seats and
some marginal ones to squeak to victory and the COP
hoping that its Qnew politicsQ theme carries the day.
END SUMMARY.

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OFF AND RUNNING
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2. (U) Trinidad and TobagoQ electoral season is in full
swing, having been kicked off by Prime Minister ManningQs
September 28 dissolution of Parliament and announcement
of November 5 as Election Day. Since this pronouncement,
the air waves, print media and public plazas have been
overflowing with speeches, electoral posturing and rumors
of party maneuverings. This yearQs vote once again pits
the PNM and UNC against one another, but with a wild card
thrown in Q the COP which split off from the UNC last year.
The PNM has traditionally drawn much, though by no means
all, of its support from Afro-Trinis and the UNC has
largely, though not exclusively, drawn from an Indo-Trini
base. Both parties, and the COP, though, have presented
diverse lists of candidates and are seeking to appeal
across all societal lines.


3. (SBU) Adding another layer of uncertainty to the race
is the increase for this election in the number of House
seats from 36 to 41. The redistricting that occurred as
part of that increase had made projecting a winner in a
number of new and old seats more difficult. In the
outgoing House, the PNM held 20 seats to the oppositionQs

16. (Note: The Senate is an appointed body and not subject
to popular vote.)

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ADVANTAGES OF INCUMBENCY
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4. (SBU) The PNM has some strong plusses in its favor.
Aided by high energy prices, it has presided over a rapidly
growing economy. Real GDP growth hit 12.2% in 2006 and is
projected to increase 5.5% for 2007. The booming economy
has cut unemployment to 4.5%, and the PNM also notes that
26,000 new housing units and 47 new schools have been built
since the PNM won election five years ago.


5. (SBU) The recently announced 2008 budget also provides
talking points for PNM candidates. It calls for increases
in the minimum wage and in old-age pensions and other social
programs. Manning mentions solid economic growth in all his
stump speeches, and also cites the PNMQs 50-year history and
its record of experience and consistency. He also derides his
opponents for their lack of concrete plans, programs, and
experience and points to his QVision 2020Q manifesto Q the
plan to have Trinidad and Tobago reach first world status in
13 years Q as indicative of his partyQs seriousness and
sense of purpose.

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NEGATIVES FAIL TO GAIN TRACTION
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6. (SBU) Not all is positive, though, for the PNM. A sense
of weariness over PNM rule exists, though this often is
coupled with a sense of inevitability over its continued
governing. There also are a number of issues of concern
to the electorate, including especially violent crime
(murders are over 250 this year),problems in the public
health sector, inflation, rural infrastructure deficiencies,
potential depletion of oil and gas reserves, bad roads, and
traffic chaos. However, claims by the opposition that they
would address these problems more effectively than the PNM

PORT OF SP 00001030 002 OF 002


have so far failed to gain traction, perhaps because neither
the UNC nor COP have presented their governing platforms.
The soap opera-like coverage of much of the political
campaign also has buried substantive points made by parties
far below the headlines.


7. (SBU) The opposition has its troubles as well. The UNC,
in particular, is hampered by a sense that its leader
(and former Prime Minister) Basdeo Panday is more interested
in personal power than party success and that his time may
have passed. He also has been accused of corruption and lost
his seat in the last parliament due to still-unresolved
legal difficulties. Despite this, he remains a folk hero to
many in the UNC, and probably is the partyQs main attraction
and problem at the same time. COP leader Winston Dookeran,
who left the UNC after sparring with Panday, is not seen as
corrupt and is drawing some support from upper-middle class
voters and professionals with his Qnew politicsQ message
and conscious effort to cross racial and ethnic lines, but
he has been vague on any governing plans.

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Dissension in the Ranks
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8. (SBU) The candidate selection process has been chaotic for
both the PNM and UNC, and only somewhat less so for the COP.
This has left some scars, most notably in the PNM, where
Manning eased out a number of party heavyweights and replaced
them with lesser known figures. At the end of the day, the
PNM kept only six incumbents, recycled three other party
figures, and brought in 32 new candidates. Some displaced
candidates made noises about Manning seeking to eliminate any
strong opposition voices in the party, and the UNC and COP
charged it was another indication of ManningQs Qdictatorial
tendencies. Manning explained simply that he was replacing
poor performers, those disliked by their constituents,
and seeking to bring a new generation of leaders into the PNM.
Grumbling aside, and perhaps hopeful they might get a future
government appointment (several current cabinet ministers
are appointed senators),most former MPs have come around
to endorse the new slate.


9. (SBU) The UNC, for its part, has been unable Q or unwilling
to say who would be Prime Minister if it won a parliamentary
majority. It has created an unwieldy dual-hatted structure
with Panday and party-financier Jack Warner running the show.
Popular UNC member Kamla Persad-Bissessar, thought to have
a shot at being the UNC prime minister candidate, lost out
to Panday and Warner. This led to one of her supporters
blasting Panday and Warner and leaving the UNC alliance.
Kamla let it be known she was unhappy (using the tune QNo woman,
No cryQ as her introduction at a major UNC event),but remained
in the party. The COP has had less open difficulties picking
candidates, but has still has not finalized its full slate.

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Comment: Three weeks to go
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10. (SBU) With about three weeks to go until the November 5
election, the PNM seems to enjoy the advantage, but there
remains time for the electoral scenery to change. A
combined opposition might have enough force to beat
the PNM, but the COP has rebuffed repeated calls for
unity from the UNC, saying it cannot work with Panday.
One respected political analyst has suggested to us that
right now the PNM has 18 safe seats, only three shy of a
majority (though 13 shy of the Qspecial majorityQ of 31
needed to change the constitution and introduce a
presidential system that Manning is said to favor).
This analyst also felt that the UNC currently has 13 safe
seats, leaving only ten in contention. The COP also is
seen as a force capable of an electoral breakthrough
and surprise and it has been the talk of the campaign
here due to its drawing big crowds and gaining several
prominent endorsements, but some posit that it may win
a large percentage of votes, but no single district
(QconstituencyQ).

KUSNITZ