HAITIAN ELECTIONS AWAITING PREVAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 001533 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/EX AND WHA/CAR S/CRS SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR INR/IAA WHA/EX PLEASE PASS USOAS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HA SUBJECT: HAITIAN ELECTIONS AWAITING PREVAL REF: A. PORT AU PRINCE 1451 ¶B. PORT AU PRINCE 1344 PORT AU PR 00001533 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Janet A. Sanderson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d ). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) and the office of the Prime Minister are awaiting the order from President Preval to put in motion the elections for renewal of one-third of the Senate, as well as the indirect elections that will complete the decentralization process and result in the formation of a permanent CEP. One presidential advisor claims the President has made a final decision on the timing of elections, but his Chief of Staff and the Prime Minister say otherwise. Meanwhile, relations between the CEP and the Executive are growing increasingly strained. The level of concern among the international community is varied, but Post is working to gather the principal donors to present to President Preval a united message calling for immediate action. That meeting with Preval is tentatively scheduled for September 18. End Summary. Mixed Signals from Presidency -------------- ¶2. (C) Fritz Longchamps, Chief of Staff to President Preval, told PolCouns on September 10 that Preval is still deliberating over the elections. True to his character of making decisions by consensus, Preval has formed two commissions to advise him on the matter. (Note: One commission concerns the Senatorial elections, the other the indirect elections. The commission on indirect elections, led by Minister in Charge of Parliamentary Relations Joseph Jasmin, has existed since early July (ref B),but the Senate commission is new. End note.) Longchamps insisted that the President is determined that Senatorial elections will be held in a way that 1) respects the constitution, 2) upholds political stability, and 3) is logistically feasible. When reminded time is running short, Longchamps coolly reiterated that the newly-elected third of the Senate would take office on the constitutionally-mandated second Monday in January. ¶3. (C) Presidential advisor Gabriel Verret gave a different story to WHA/CAR Office Director and Poloff on September 4, declaring that Preval has decided to hold indirect elections, thereby forming the permanent CEP, prior to holding elections for one-third of the Senate. This runs contradictory to Prime Minister Alexis' comments to the Ambassador on August 28 that Haiti would have senatorial elections in 2007 and indirect elections in 2008 (ref A). Neither the office of the President nor the office of the Prime Minister has made a public announcement of such a decision. CEP: We're Waiting on Preval -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Acting CEP Director General Francois Benoit told PolCouns and Poloff on September 12 that he sent a letter to President Preval in late August asking for a decision on the date for Senate elections. Benoit said the letter emphasized the need to remain within the boundaries of the Constitution by holding elections before January 2008. The President has not responded. ¶5. (SBU) Benoit stated the current CEP has both the competence and the experience to manage the senatorial elections, but they need the official order from the Executive. Benoit suggested the President could draft and present to parliament a law empowering the current CEP to manage the Senate renewal elections. (Note: The current mandate of the provisional CEP does not include authority to manage the election for the renewal of one-third of the Senate. That power belongs to the permanent CEP - a body formed through the indirect elections that have yet to be held. End note.) Benoit said the CEP needs 150 days from the time Preval announces elections in order to execute them, making it technically impossible to finish elections by the constitutionally-mandated date. ¶6. (C) Benoit underscored the political importance of these PORT AU PR 00001533 002.2 OF 002 elections, asserting that political actors in Haiti wishing to take control of the CEP are pressuring Preval to delay indirect elections. Benoit claimed Preval wants to please everyone at once, even if it means flouting the Constitution by holding off on elections. He considers Preval's commissions examining the future of elections and the CEP nothing but a stalling tactic. Appearing resigned to failure of the CEP's managing the coming election cycle successfully, Benoit said he has no political ambitions and would be happy to leave his post at the CEP if asked, as the costs of the job outweigh the benefits. He said, ''If they want me to leave, I'll go.'' ¶7. (C) MINUSTAH's Chief of Electoral Assistance, Marc Plum, reported to Poloffs a conversation he had with Benoit on September 11 in which Benoit stated that the GoH lacks the political will to hold indirect elections under current circumstances. He blamed this on the President's political party, L'Espwa, which he said is worried local elections will result in local and municipal assemblies controlled by the opposition, which, in the follow-on sequence of indirect elections, would then produce an opposition-friendly permanent CEP. Having suffered from difficult relations with the current provisional CEP, Benoit believes that Preval's tactic is to stall for time and set up the provisional CEP for failure by withholding finances and refusing to give adequate notice of the election date. UN Deputy SRSG: Revive the Non-Paper -------------- ¶8. (C) Deputy SRSG Luis Carlos da Costa told Poloff on September 13 that he was anxious to revive the non-paper drafted by Embassy for Core Group ratification (ref B). His plan was to resend the draft to the Core Group for final approval before submitting it to Preval. He agreed that key Ambassadors should meet with President Preval as soon as possible on the subject of elections. (Note: After hearing from the Prime Minister on August 23 that senatorial elections would take place in 2007 and the indirect elections in 2008, SRSG Mulet decided the non-paper was irrelevant, according to MINUSTAH's elections team. End note.) MINUSTAH: Finger-Pointing Abounds -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Plum said the CEP was proposing November 25 or December 9 for the senatorial elections. A second round of elections would follow. According to Plum, this means that Haiti ''will not have a functional Senate before February.'' Plum emphasized the key role of President Preval in moving elections forward. He said Preval's two most important tasks concerning elections are issuing an official decree fixing the date of Senate elections, and extending the mandate of the Provisional CEP to authorize them to organize those elections. Instead of making a decision, Preval has set up the two commissions to consider the indirect and the Senate elections (see Note, para 2). ¶10. (C) According to Plum, the Prime Minister was highly critical of the CEP in a September 6 meeting with MINUSTAH. Alexis derided the CEP's proposed elections law, calling it ''anything but serious,'' and added that the CEP was the ''fundamental problem'' behind the elections impasse. ¶11. (C) Comment: Electing new senators by the constitutional beginning of their term in January 2008 is now highly unlikely. Despite Verret's dubious comments, it appears Preval has not yet made a firm decision on timing for either indirect or Senate elections. In the meantime, acrimonious relations between the CEP and the Executive inhibit constructive dialogue between the two. Francois Benoit is defensive and clearly feels under attack, regardless of Preval's true feelings toward the provisional CEP. Ambassador, along with her Canadian, Brazilian and French counterparts, will meet with Preval September 19 to impress on him the importance of holding elections by their constitutionally mandated deadlines. SANDERSON