MONTENEGRO STARTS ON LONG PATH TO NATO

UNCLAS PODGORICA 000064 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL MARR MW SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO STARTS ON LONG PATH TO NATO ¶1. (U) Summary and Introduction: Montenegro started down its long road to possible NATO membership last December 14, when it joined NATO's Partnership for Peace (PfP),after the invitation from the Riga Summit. The campaign to gain popular support for NATO membership will likely prove difficult. Only 36.6 percent support joining NATO in a February 2007 poll, with 34.6 percent opposed. Support for the EU, in contrast, is at 74.0 percent, with only 8.4 percent opposed. Poll numbers have been relatively unchanged since 2003. End summary. ¶2. (U) In Montenegro, the strongest opposition to NATO comes from self-described Serbs, supporters of the political opposition. They view NATO as either the military organization that bombed Serbia, and the main airport and some military installations in Montenegro, in 1999; or as a military alliance that does America's bidding -- or both. But even government supporters - half of the populace -- are not unified in support of the GoM's commitment to join NATO. A senior member of President Vujanovic's staff told POLOFF March 5 that they see the most receptive audience as those with "no opinion" - 28.8 percent in the last poll. He added that only 5 to 10 percent of those opposed could be won over to support. If and when the day comes for Montenegro to consider an offer to join NATO, a referendum on the question is very likely. The opposition has already requested such a vote, and members of the President's office and MFA have told POLOFF that the government would likely accept the request when it became timely. ¶3. (U) Post, in cooperation with USNATO, has sponsored three journalists on "NATO Tours." One of those journalists is currently producing a documentary on NATO for broadcast on public TV; an excerpt has already aired Post is also working with other NATO embassies here on public diplomacy outreach to a broader cross-section of the populace, including schoolchildren. NATO's International Staff (I.S.) has recently begun periodic visits to Montenegro, and includes a public diplomacy officer and program component in those trips. There are reports that NATO IS may open an office here. ¶4. (U) The Ministry of Defense is new, and still small - only ten staff at present, including the Minister. The Dutch have begun a two-year, Euro 620 thousand project to help stand up the MoD, to be implemented by the D.C.-based NGO The Jefferson Institute. The Jefferson team told POLOFF March 9 that a key element of their program will be assisting the MoD stand up a public affairs/legislative affairs unit, to be charged with proactive outreach on the role of the military in independent Montenegro, and on Montenegro's partnership with NATO. ¶5. (U) Comment: As shown by the polls, public opinion on NATO is frozen. Post believes that stereotypes of NATO are widely held (even among supporters),and that a sustained public diplomacy campaign will be needed to inform the citizenry, and create broad and genuine support for NATO's political and military agenda -- and greater Montenegrin activity in PfP. End comment. BARNES