AHTISAARI PLAN CAUSES MILD REACTIONS IN MONTENEGRO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000029 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PREF MW SR SUBJECT: AHTISAARI PLAN CAUSES MILD REACTIONS IN MONTENEGRO PODGORICA 00000029 001.3 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: THE GOM IS URGING PRISTINA AND BELGRADE TO FIND A SOLUTION, BUT IS REMAINING OTHERWISE VAGUE ON THE AHTISAARI PACKAGE IN ORDER TO AVOID ALIENATING EITHER OF ITS NEIGHBORS. OPPOSITION REACTION TO THE PLAN HAS BEEN MOSTLY PRO-SERBIAN; ALBANIAN PARTIES ARE RESPONDING TO IT WITH MODERATION OR REFRAINING FROM COMMENT. THE GENERAL PUBLIC HAS SHOWN LITTLE INTEREST, WHILE SOME REFUGEES/IDPS FROM THE PAST ARE EVEN NOW EXPRESSING INTEREST IN RETURNING TO KOSOVO. END SUMMARY. -------------- GOM ENGAGED IN BALANCING ACT -------------- ¶2. (SBU) THE GOM IS ATTEMPTING TO STRADDLE THE FENCE WITH REGARD TO THE AHTISAARI PACKAGE FOR KOSOVO. INTERIOR MINISTER KALAMPEROVIC EXPLAINED TO DCM ON FEBRUARY 6 THAT MONTENEGRO HAS GOOD RELATIONS WITH BOTH SERBIA AND KOSOVO, AND DOES NOT INTEND TO ALIENATE EITHER OF THEM BY SUPPORTING ONE SIDE OVER THE OTHER ON THE ISSUE. ¶3. (U) THIS STRATEGY WAS EVIDENT IN THE STATEMENT ISSUED BY PRESIDENT VUJANOVIC ON FEBRUARY 6. HE TOLD RADIO MONTENEGRO THAT BELGRADE AND PRISTINA SHOULD NEGOTIATE BASED ON AHTISAARI'S PLAN IN ORDER "TO SECURE A SUSTAINABLE SOLUTION" TO THE KOSOVO ISSUE. HE SAID SUCH A SOLUTION WOULD BE IN THE INTERESTS OF BELGRADE, PRISTINA, THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AND ESPECIALLY THE REGION, REQUIRING "A LESSER SCOPE OF FOREIGN MONITORING, REDUCING THE EXPENSE AND TIME OF IMPLEMENTING THE SOLUTION." HE ADDED THAT MONTENEGRO HAS NO REASON TO CHANGE ITS STATED POSITION TOWARD THE KOSOVO ISSUE OR TO "OFFER FORMULAS" FOR SOLVING IT, BUT THAT IT WAS "NATURAL FOR BELGRADE AND PRISTINA TO AGREE ON THE MATTER, WITH THE PARTICIPATION OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY." -------------- OPPOSITION MOSTLY BACKS SERBIA -------------- ¶4. (U) OPPOSITION PARTIES THAT CAMPAIGNED AGAINST MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE (UNSURPRISINGLY) OPPOSE THE AHTISAARI PLAN IN PUBLIC STATEMENTS. THE SERBIAN PEOPLE'S PARTY (SNS, THE LEADING MEMBER OF THE "SERBIAN LIST" COALITION) SAID AHTISAARI'S PROPOSAL PAVED THE WAY FOR KOSOVO'S INDEPENDENCE. THE PEOPLE'S PARTY (NS) AND DEMOCRATIC SERBIAN PARTY (DSS) REITERATED THAT ALBANIAN SEPARATISM IN KOSOVO AND MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE ARE CLOSELY CONNECTED ISSUES. THE SOCIALIST PEOPLES PARTY (SNP, FORMERLY PRO-SERBIAN, BUT NOW ATTEMPTING TO RE-BRAND ITSELF AS A MULTI-ETHNIC, CIVIC PARTY) STATED THAT ANY SUPPORT BY ANYONE FROM MONTENEGRO WOULD PROVOKE INSTABILITY AND INSECURITY IN MONTENEGRO. THE MOVEMENT FOR CHANGE (PZP),WHICH WAS OFFICIALLY NEUTRAL ON MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE, AGAIN ATTEMPTED TO MAINTAIN THEIR OPTIONS WITH AS MANY VOTERS AS POSSIBLE BY DESCRIBING AHTISAARIS PLAN AS PREMATURE. ¶5. (SBU) SNS LEADER ANDRIJA MANDIC TOLD CHARGE FEBRUARY 8 THAT HIS PARTY WOULD SUPPORT THE SERBIAN PRIME MINISTER ON THE KOSOVO ISSUE, REJECTING THE "BIASED" AHTISAARI PACKAGE. HE WENT ON TO SAY THAT BELGRADE AND PRISTINA MUST RESOLVE THE ISSUE BETWEEN THEMSELVES, "IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SERBIAN CONSTITUTION." WHEN PUSHED, HE AGREED THAT THERE COULD BE NO REVERSION TO THE PRE-1999 SITUATION, BUT NOTED THAT THE LAST 15 YEARS HAD BEEN THE MOST DIFFICULT EVER FOR "MY PEOPLE." HE ADDED THAT THE KOSOVO ISSUE WAS ALWAYS GOING TO BE THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE DISSOLUTION OF YUGOSLAVIA, ESPECIALLY IN CONTRAST WITH THE RELATIVELY PAINLESS SEPARATION OF MONTENEGRO. COMMENT: HE NOTED LATER IN THE CONVERSATION THAT, ALTHOUGH HE HAD OPPOSED INDEPENDENCE, HIS SIDE LOST AND HE WAS NOW A CITIZEN OF MONTENEGRO, ABIDING BY MONTENEGRIN LAW AND INVOLVED IN LAUNCHING THE NEW COUNTRY BY ENGAGING IN THE DRAFTING THE CONSTITUTION. ALSO, DESPITE HIS RHETORIC, MANDIC HAS A RECORD OF REJECTING EXTRA-LEGAL OR VIOLENT ACTIONS. FOR EXAMPLE, DURING THE NATO BOMBING CAMPAIGN HE PROTESTED, BUT DID NOT ENGAGE IN ANYTHING MORE EXTREME. END COMMENT. ¶6. (U) STATEMENTS BY ALBANIAN PARTIES HAVE BEEN NOTABLY MODERATE. DEMOCRATIC UNION OF ALBANIANS (DUA, A CLOSE ALLY OF THE GOVERNING DPS) PRESIDENT FERHAT DINOSA SAID THE PARTY WOULD SUPPORT WHATEVER THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY DECIDED ON KOSOVO'S STATUS. THE PRESIDENT OF THE ALBANIAN ALTERNATIVE (AA) VASELJ B T #0029 N -- END OF ERRORED MESSAGE -- PODGORICA 00000029 002.3 OF 002 SINISTAJ STATED THAT IT IS TOO EARLY TO GIVE AN ANSWER AS TO WHETHER MONTENEGRO SHOULD FOLLOW THE LEAD OF WORLD POWERS IN RECOGNIZING KOSOVO'S INDEPENDENCE, BUT NOTED THAT KOSOVO WAS AMONG THE FIRST WHO HAD "RECOGNIZED" MONTENEGRO. LEADER OF THE DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE (DSCG),MEHMET BARDHI, HAS DECLINED TO COMMENT ON AHTISAARIS PLAN. -------------- COMMENT: MONTENEGRIN PUBLIC UNFAZED -------------- ¶7. (U) COMMENT: REACTION TO THE PLAN FROM THE PUBLIC AT LARGE HAS BEEN VERY LOW-KEY, BORDERING ON APATHY. HOWEVER, THOSE MOST PERSONALLY INVESTED IN THE KOSOVO OUTCOME, PAST REFUGEES/IDPS, MAY BE REGARDED AS THE CANARIES IN THIS COAL MINE. POST HEARD ONE HOPEFUL INDICATOR IN CONVERSATIONS WITH LOCAL NGOS WHO WORK ON REPATRIATION. THEY REPORT THAT INTEREST IN RETURNING TO KOSOVO IS UNDIMINISHED, AND EVEN TOLD OF A FAMILY OF SERBS WHO APPEARED IN THEIR OFFICE THE MONDAY AFTER THE PLAN WAS ANNOUNCED TO APPLY TO GO BACK AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, INTEREST IN "GO AND SEE" VISITS, WHERE POTENTIAL RETURNEES GO TO HAVE A LOOK AT CONDITIONS BACK HOME BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION, IS UNABATED. MONTENEGRIN REFUGEE COMMISSIONER ZELJKO SOFRANAC ACCOMPANIED A GROUP OF SEVERAL SUCH FAMILIES TO PEJA/PEC FEBRUARY 6. BARNES B T #0029 N -- END OF ERRORED MESSAGE --