MONTENEGRO'S NEW CONSTITUTION - REFERENDUM INCREASINGLY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000247

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SENSITIVE
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TAGS: PGOV MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO'S NEW CONSTITUTION - REFERENDUM INCREASINGLY
LIKELY


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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: MONTENEGRO'S POLITICAL PARTIES REMAIN UNABLE
TO CLOSE RANKS ON THE DRAFT CONSTITUTION. INCREASINGLY, IT
APPEARS THAT 2/3 OF THE MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT REQUIRED WILL NOT
VOTE FOR THE SAME TEXT. THEY ARE SPLIT OVER "HERITAGE" ISSUES
INCLUDING THE CONSTITUENT PEOPLES (IN THE PREAMBLE),PREDOMINANT
LANGUAGE, NATIONAL SYMBOLS, AND THE STATUS OF THE ORTHODOX
CHURCH. PASSAGE OF THE CONSTITUTION BY A BARE PARLIAMENTARY
MAJORITY, WHICH LOOKS OBTAINABLE AFTER THE AUGUST/SEPTEMBER
RECESS, WOULD REQUIRE A PUBLIC REFERENDUM, WHICH WOULD LIKELY
BE HELD IN NOVEMBER AND REQUIRE A SIMPLE MAJORITY. END SUMMARY.



CONSTITUTION SNARLED ON EPHEMERA

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2. (SBU) PARLIAMENTARIANS AND PARTY LEADERS HAVE RECENTLY STATED
THAT "95%" OF THE DRAFT CONSTITUTION TEXT HAS BEEN AGREED, AND A
"FINAL" TEXT IS TO BE FORWARDED TO THE ENTIRE PARLIAMENT BY THE
END OF JULY, SHORTLY BEFORE IT RECESSES FOR AUGUST AND
SEPTEMBER. THERE ARE GROWING INDICATIONS THAT IT MAY BE
IMPOSSIBLE TO PASS THE CONSTITUTION WITHOUT RECOURSE TO A PUBLIC
REFERENDUM, BY OBTAINING THE VOTES OF 2/3 OF THE PARLIAMENT (54
OF 81 SEATS) FOR THE TEXT. SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT LET SLIP AT
JULY 3 RECEPTION THAT THE CITIZENSHIP LAW WOULD BE INTRODUCED
"AFTER THE REFERENDUM" PRESIDENT VUJANOVIC, DURING THE COURSE OF
A JULY 13 NATIONAL DAY EVENT, NOTED THE STRONG POSSIBILITY OF A
PUBLIC REFERENDUM IN NOVEMBER TO APPROVE THE TEXT. DPS PARTY
PRESIDENT (AND FORMER PRIME MINISTER) MILO DJUKANOVIC HAS ALSO
RECENTLY SPECULATED IN PUBLIC THAT A REFERENDUM WOULD BE NEEDED
TO APPROVE THE CONSTITUTION. AT DINNER FOR VISITING ASSISTANT
SECRETARY FRIED, SIX PARLIAMENTARIANS WERE EVENLY SPLIT OVER

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WHETHER IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE TO SECURE PARLIAMENTARY APPROVAL OF
CONSTITUTION, WITHOUT RECOURSE TO A SUBSEQUENT REFERENDUM. THE
STUMBLING BLOCKS/DEAL BREAKERS ARE THE ONES IDENTIFIED AT THE
VERY BEGINNING OF THE PROCESS: NATIONAL "HERITAGE" ISSUES,
INCLUDING THE CONSTITUENT PEOPLES (IN THE PREAMBLE),PREDOMINANT
LANGUAGE, NATIONAL SYMBOLS, AND THE STATUS OF THE ORTHODOX
CHURCH. (THE LATTER ROLE IS DISPUTED BETWEEN THE SERBIAN
ORTHODOX CHURCH (SOC),WHICH IS HEADED BY A NATIVE-BORN
MONTENEGRIN, THE METROPOLITAN AMFILOHIJE),AND THE MONTENEGRIN
ORTHODOX CHURCH (MOC),WHICH CLAIMS TO BE THE HEIR TO THE FORMER
MOC WHICH WAS ABSORBED INTO THE SOC IN THE EARLY 1920S.) POST
NOTES THAT COUNCIL OF EUROPE EXPERTS, LEAVING MONTENEGRO AFTER A
THREE-DAY VISIT ON JULY 13, FELT IT NECESSARY TO UNDERSCORE
PARLIAMENT'S EARLIER COMMITMENT TO ADOPT A TEXT IN LINE WITH COE
STANDARDS SUGGESTING THAT GOVERNMENT ASSURANCES ASIDE, THE
DOCUMENT MAY NOT YET MEASURE UP. THE COE'S VENICE COMMISSION
ALSO ANNOUNCED IT WILL RETURN IN SEPTEMBER WITH AN EVALUATION OF
THE DRAFT CONSTITUTION.




3. (SBU) AN ADDITIONAL BIND TO ADOPTION OF THE CONSTITUTION IN
PARLIAMENT IS THE DEMAND OF THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR CHANGE
(PZP),WHICH HAS STATED THAT IT WILL CAST ITS 11 VOTES FOR THE
CONSTITUTION ONLY IF THERE IS A PROMISE TO CALL EARLY
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS (ELECTIONS WERE LAST HELD ON SEPTEMBER
10, 2006, WITH A FOUR-YEAR MAXIMUM TERM OF OFFICE). WITH THE
RULING COALITION HAVING AT MOST 41 VOTES, AND THE OPPOSITION
SERBIAN LIST RULING OUT ITS 12 VOTES FOR THE CONSTITUTION, THE
STEADFASTNESS OF THE PZP TO ITS DEMAND IS CRITICAL, ESPECIALLY
AS SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (SDP) SUPPORT FOR THE RULING
COALITION OF WHICH IT IS A PART REMAINS SOFT.




4. (SBU) IN THE OPPOSITION, THE CENTRIST, CIVIC SOCIALIST
PEOPLE'S PARTY (SNP) CAN COMPENSATE FOR POSSIBLE DEFECTIONS IN
THE SDP IN PARLIAMENTARY VOTING FOR THE CONSTITUTION. THE
POSSIBILITY OF DEFECTIONS AMONG THE SDP MPS INCREASED AFTER THE
PARTY SUCCESSFULLY DERAILED GOM POLICY ON ENERGY PRIVATIZATION,
AND WOULD BE MOTIVATED BY THE SDP'S ESPOUSAL OF CONSTITUTIONAL
PROVISIONS THAT WOULD ENHANCE THE "MONTENEGRIN" CHARACTER OF THE
STATE.




5. (SBU) THE ETHNIC SERBIAN PARTIES (SERBIAN LIST WITH 12 SEATS,
DEMOCRATIC SERBIAN PARTY (DSS) WITH ONE, AND PEOPLE'S PARTY (NS)
WITH TWO) HAVE VAINLY SOUGHT GREATER CONSTITUTIONAL PROTECTIONS
FOR THE ETHNIC SERBS IN MONTENEGRO, WHILE DISAVOWING "MINORITY"
STATUS FOR SERBS (SERBS ARE 32% OF THE POPULATION, ACCORDING TO
THE 2002 CENSUS). A CONTEMPORANEOUS EFFORT TO ALLOW
MONTENEGRINS TO CLAIM DUAL SERBIAN CITIZENSHIP HAS RECENTLY
ATTRACTED MORE SUPPORT FROM THE LOCAL ETHNIC SERBIAN PARTIES
THAN DISCUSSIONS OF THE DRAFT CONSTITUTION. THE SERBIAN PARTIES
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WILL LIKELY ABSTAIN FROM THE PARLIAMENTARY VOTE, AND THE SERBIAN
LIST HAS SAID IT WOULD CALL FOR A BOYCOTT OF A REFERENDUM.




6. (SBU) THE PARTIES MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR THE CONSTITUTION IN
PARLIAMENT ARE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF SOCIALISTS (DPS) WITH 33
MPS, SNP WITH 8, CROATIAN CIVIC INITIATIVE AND DEMOCRATIC UNION
OF ALBANIANS (EACH WITH ONE),AND SOME MPS IN THE SDP -- A
COMFORTABLE MAJORITY, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE REQUIED TWO THIRDS.
THE VARIOUS ETHNIC SERBIAN, BOSNIAK, AND OTHER ALBANIAN PARTIES
HAVE EXPRESSED THE VIEW THAT THEIR GROUPS ARE INSUFFICIENTLY
PROTECTED BY THE DRAFT. A PARLIAMENTARY VOTE ON THE DRAFT IS
LIKELY IN LATE SEPTEMBER OR EARLY OCTOBER, AFTER THE SUMMER
RECESS.



PUBLIC REFERENDUM

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7. (SBU) WITH LESS THAN TWO-THIRDS OF THE PARLIAMENT VOTING FOR
THE CONSTITUTION, A PUBLIC REFERENDUM WOULD BE REQUIRED TO
RATIFY THE RESULT. UNDER THE PRESENT LAW, THE REQUIRED MINIMUM
TURN-OUT IS 50% OF THE REGISTERED ELECTORATE, WITH 50% PLUS ONE
OF VALID VOTES CAST REQUIRED TO BE IN FAVOR OF ADOPTION.
(CONSIDERATION OF A NEW CITIZENSHIP LAW HAS BEEN POSTPONED UNTIL
AFTER THE NEW CONSTITUTION ENTERS INTO FORCE.) PRESUMABLY, THE
ELECTORAL ROLL USED WOULD BE THAT FROM THE SEPTEMBER 2006
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, UPDATED. MONTENEGRO HAS A GENERALLY
GOOD TRACK RECORD ON ELECTORAL PROCESSES, ALTHOUGH USUALLY WITH
STRONG INTERNATIONAL (PRIMARILY OSCE/ODHIR) OVERSIGHT.



COMMENT

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8. (SBU) A NUMBER OF PARTIES, PARTICULARLY THE DPS, MAY BE
INCREASINGLY WELCOMING A PUBLIC VOTE ON THE CONSTITUTION. A
PUBLIC VOTE SIMULTANEOUSLY ABSOLVES THE MPS OF ACCEPTING COE
STANDARDS -- WHICH TRANSFORM MONTENEGRO INTO A CIVIC STATE AT A
PACE QUICKER THAN DESIRED BY SOME PARTIES -- WHILE AVOIDING NEED
FOR MESSY COMPROMISES IN ORDER TO GET A 2/3 VOTE IN PARLIAMENT.
MEANWHILE, THE ETHNIC SERBIAN PARTIES REMAIN WHERE THEY HAVE
BEEN RELEGATED BY THE RULING PARTIES AND CENTRIST OPPOSITION -
ABSTAINING FROM THE PARLIAMENTARY VOTE AND CALLING FOR A BOYCOTT
OF A POSSIBLE PUBLIC REFERENDUM. END COMMENT.
BARNES
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