MONTENEGRO MARKS ONE YEAR OF INDEPENDENCE (C-RE7-00522)

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PODGORICA 000182 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON MARR MW SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO MARKS ONE YEAR OF INDEPENDENCE (C-RE7-00522) REF: A. A) 06 BELGRADE 1475 ¶B. B) 06 BELGRADE 1646 ¶C. C) 06 BELGRADE 1858 ¶D. D) 06 BELGRADE 0865 ¶E. E) 07 PODGORICA 032 ¶F. F) 07 PODGORICA 064 ¶G. G) 07 PODGORICA 100 PODGORICA 00000182 001.3 OF 004 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: ON MAY 21 MONTENEGRO MARKED THE FIRST ANNIVERSARY OF INDEPENDENCE. MANY HAVE DESCRIBED MONTENEGRO AS A SOUTH EUROPEAN SUCCESS STORY, REFERRING TO THE PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF THE INDEPENDENCE QUESTION AND THE VISIBLE PROGRESS THE COUNTRY HAS ACHIEVED ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATION. HOWEVER, MANY PROBLEMS FROM THE PAST REMAIN. MONTENEGRO CONTINUES TO BE A LARGELY DIVIDED SOCIETY -- THE GAPS BETWEEN RICH AND POOR, AS WELL AS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN, AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY HAVE GROWN. SHOULD MONTENEGRO REALLY WISH TO SEIZE ITS EURO-ATLANTIC FUTURE IT WILL NEED TO ACCELERATE PROGRESS TOWARD THE FULL DEMOCRATIZATION OF SOCIETY, AND IMPLEMENTATION OF RULE OF LAW THROUGH MORE PROFESSIONAL AND EFFICIENT INSTITUTIONS. END SUMMARY MODEST CELEBRATION OF INDEPENDENCE -------------- ¶2. (U) MONTENEGRO PROCLAIMED INDEPENDENCE ON JUNE 3, 2006, FOLLOWING A REFERENDUM HELD ON MAY 21, IN WHICH 55.5% SUPPORTED INDEPENDENCE AND 44.5% VOTED AGAINST, WITH AN 86% TURNOUT. ON MAY 21, 2007, MONTENEGRO MARKED THE FIRST ANNIVERSARY OF THE REFERENDUM, BUT CELEBRATIONS WERE MINIMAL AND SUBDUED. AT THE CENTRAL CELEBRATION ON MAY 20 IN CETINJE, PRESIDENT FILIP VUJANOVIC SAID THE STRATEGIC AIM OF MONTENEGRO WAS FASTER INCLUSION INTO EURO-ATLANTIC INSTITUTIONS - FULL MEMBERSHIP IN NATO AND EU. PARLIAMENT SPEAKER RANKO KRIVOKAPIC LAID A WREATH AT THE MAUSOLEUM ON MOUNT LOVCEN, THE GRAVE OF THE FAMOUS MONTENEGRIN WRITER PRINCE PETAR II PETROVIC-NJEGOS (1813-51),A SYMBOL OF MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE. MOST OPPOSITION FIGURES STAYED AWAY FROM THE TWO EVENTS. THERE WERE NO GOVERNMENT-ORGANIZED EVENTS IN THE CAPITAL, PODGORICA, ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A WELL-ATTENDED CONCERT THAT EVENING. MEMBERSHIP IN MAJOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) INDEPENDENCE HAS BROUGHT VISIBLE RESULTS. MONTENEGRO HAS JOINED SEVERAL RELEVANT INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS: THE UN (JUNE 28, 2006),THE OSCE (JUNE 26, 2006),THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE (MAY 11, 2007),NATO'S PFP (NOVEMBER 28, 2006),THE WORLD BANK AND THE IMF (JANUARY 18, 2007, AND JANUARY 28, 2007, RESPECTFULLY). ON MARCH 15, 2007 A STABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT (SAA) BETWEEN MONTENEGRO AND THE EU WAS INITIALED. THE SAA WILL PROBABLY BE FORMALLY SIGNED IN OCTOBER. MONTENEGRO HAS ALSO INITIALED AGREEMENTS ON VISA FACILITATION AND READMISSION WITH THE EU, AND HAS SIGNED THE CENTRAL EUROPE FREE TRADE ZONE AGREEMENT (CEFTA),WHICH SHOULD ENTER INTO FORCE IN JULY 2007. EMBASSIES OPEN IN THE COUNTRY; MONTENEGRO OPENS EMBASSIES -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) BESIDES THE U.S., THE FOLLOWING COUNTRIES HAVE OPENED EMBASSIES IN MONTENEGRO: AUSTRIA, BULGARIA, CHINA, FRANCE, GERMANY, GREECE, CROATIA, HUNGARY, ITALY, MACEDONIA, ROMANIA, RUSSIA, SLOVENIA, THE UK AND ALBANIA. MONTENEGRO TO DATE HAS BEEN FORMALLY RECOGNIZED BY 103 COUNTRIES AND HAS FORMALLY ESTABLISHED DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH 80 COUNTRIES. ¶6. (U) MONTENEGRO'S AMBASSADOR TO THE U.S. IS IN PLACE AND MONTENEGRIN EMBASSIES HAVE OPENED IN SERBIA, CROATIA, MACEDONIA, FRANCE, THE UK, ITALY, THE VATICAN, BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA, AND B T #0182 N -- END OF ERRORED MESSAGE -- PODGORICA 00000182 002.6 OF 004 SLOVENIA. IT HAS ALSO OPENED PERMANENT MISSIONS TO THE UN, EU AND OSCE. MONTENEGRO'S AMBASSADOR TO NATO (BRUSSELS) IS TO ASSUME HIS POSITION SOON, AND A MILITARY LIAISON TO NATO-SHAPE (MONS) HAS BEEN ANNOUNCED. IN ITS JUNE 3, 2006, DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE, MONTENEGRO STATED THAT IT ACCEPTED ALL RELEVANT INTERNATIONAL OBLIGATIONS OF THE FORMER STATE UNION. POLITICS AS USUAL -------------- ¶7. (U) AS REQUIRED, A PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WAS HELD SEPTEMBER 10, 2006, AT THE END OF THE 2002 PARLIAMENTS MANDATE. THE ELECTION WAS GENERALLY IN ACCORDANCE WITH INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS AND SAW NO SHIFT IN POWER, WITH THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF SOCIALISTS (DPS) AND SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (SDP) HOLDING ON TO POWER WITH 41 OF 81 SEATS. EVEN WITH NO PARTY BOYCOTTING THE VOTE, TURNOUT WAS "ONLY" 70 PERCENT, BELOW PAST ELECTIONS. THE REAL SURPRISE CAME A MONTH AFTER THE VOTE, WHEN MILO DJUKANOVIC STEPPED BACK FROM OFFICE AFTER 17 YEARS AS EITHER PRIME MINISTER OR PRESIDENT. (REF A, B) THE NEW GOM, LED BY FORMER JUSTICE MINISTER STURANOVIC, HAS GENERALLY HEWED CLOSE TO THE LINE SET BY DJUKANOVIC, WHO WAS REELECTED AS PARTY LEADER OF THE DPS ON MAY 19, 2007. ECONOMIC PARAMETERS LOOK PROMISING -------------- ¶8. (SBU) THE FIRST YEAR OF INDEPENDENCE SAW BOOMS IN BOTH STOCK AND REAL ESTATE (PRICES DOUBLED AND TRIPLED IN BOTH MARKETS IN THE PAST TWELVE MONTHS),AN INCREASE OF FOREIGN INVESTMENTS TO EUROS 506 MILLION IN 2006 (COMPARED TO XXX IN 2005),AND A MORE PRONOUNCED AND NOTICEABLE DIVISION BETWEEN THE RICHER SOUTH (WHICH CONTINUES TO ATTRACT THE BULK OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT, PARTICULARLY REAL ESTATE SALES, AND TOURISM) AND THE POORER NORTH. ¶9. (U) ACCORDING TO OFFICIAL DATA, INFLATION HAS BEEN KEPT AT THE LEVEL OF EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES, THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS BEEN REDUCED FROM 18 TO 13.87 PER CENT, AND THE AVERAGE MONTHLY SALARY ROSE 16 PERCENT IN THE LAST YEAR TO EUROS 326. REAL GDP GROWTH IN 2006 WAS 4.5 PERCENT. ¶10. (U) IN THE TOURISM SECTOR, THE MILITARY SHIPYARD "ARSENAL" IN TIVAT WAS SOLD TO CANADIAN BUSINESSMAN PETER MONK; HE PLANS TO DEVELOP A FULL-SERVICE HARBOR FOR YACHTS AND MEGA-YACHTS. FURTHER DOWN THE COAST, THE ELITE HOLIDAY RESORTS SVETI STEFAN, MILOCER AND QUEEN'S BEACH WERE LEASED TO SINGAPORE'S AMAN RESORTS GROUP. REFORM OF MILITARY AND DEFENSE SYSTEM BEGINS FROM SCRATCH -------------- -------------- ¶11. (U) FOLLOWING THE INVITATION TO JOIN THE PARTNERSHIP FOR PEACE, WHICH WAS EXTENDED IN NOVEMBER 2006 AT NATO'S RIGA SUMMIT, MONTENEGRO HAS STARTED AN OVERALL REFORM OF ITS DEFENSE SYSTEM. THE SO-CALLED "BRUSSELS" GOVERNMENT (I.E., THE PRIMARY INTERNATIONAL GOAL OF THE GOM IS EU AND NATO) OF PM ZELJKO STURANOVIC HAS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MONTENEGRO'S HISTORY ESTABLISHED A DEFENSE MINISTRY. IN OCTOBER 2006 U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY RUMSFELD VISITED MONTENEGRO. THE STATE PARTNERSHIP SIPDIS PROGRAM BETWEEN MONTENEGRO AND THE STATE OF MAINE HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED. THE WARSHIPS USS ANZIO AND USS EMORY S. LAND VISITED MONTENEGRO IN OCTOBER 2006 AND MAY 2007; A FOUR-NATION NATO SQUADRON (INCLUDING THE USS ROOSEVELT) VISITED IN APRIL ¶2007. ¶12. (SBU) THE GOM SEES MILITARY COOPERATION WITH THE USG AS ITS STRATEGIC GOAL, AND LOOKS FOR AMERICAN SUPPORT IN EQUIPPING AND PODGORICA 00000182 003.3 OF 004 TRAINING MONTENEGRO'S MILITARY STAFF. THE DEFENSE MINISTRY HAS ANNOUNCED THAT IT WILL SOON FORWARD BILLS ON THE MILITARY, ON DEFENSE, AND ON DEFENSE DOCTRINE TO THE PARLIAMENT FOR APPROVAL. THE GOVERNMENT HAS ALSO ANNOUNCED IT WILL START A NATO MEMBERSHIP AWARENESS CAMPAIGN. VARIOUS PERCEPTIONS OF THE RESULTS ACHIEVED -------------- ¶13. (U) AFTER CONCLUDING A SOFA AND AN ARTICLE 98 AGREEMENT WITH THE USG AND A TRANSIT AGREEMENT WITH EUFOR, THE MONTENEGRIN LEADERSHIP WAS SUBJECT TO UNEXPECTEDLY HARSH CRITICISM FROM THE OPPOSITION. HOWEVER, NO NEGATIVE COMMENT WAS MADE ON MONTENEGRO'S JOINING THE GLOBAL INITIATIVE FOR COMBATING NUCLEAR TERRORISM, JOINING THE PROLIFERATION SECURITY INITIATIVE, OR SIGNING A "SECTION 505" DEFENSE ARTICLE END-USE AGREEMENT -- ALL CONCLUDED AFTER THE SOFA/ARTICLE 98 AGREEMENTS. ¶14. (U) THE RULING COALITION OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF SOCIALISTS (DPS) AND THE SOCIAL DEMOCRAT PARTY (SDP) HAS PROMISED THAT CITIZENS WILL SOON START TO FEEL CONCRETE BENEFITS FROM INDEPENDENCE, THROUGH THE COMPLETION OF PRIVATIZATION, INCREASED FOREIGN INVESTMENTS, AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM. HOWEVER, THE OPPOSITION HAS REMAINED SHARPLY CRITICAL OF THE GOVERNMENTS ACHIEVEMENTS. PRO-SERBIAN PARTIES (15 SEATS IN THE 81-MEMBER PARLIAMENT) ASSERT THAT THE DISSOLUTION OF THE STATE UNION WITH SERBIA HAS LED TO A CONTINUATION OF SMUGGLING AND CORRUPTION, AN INCREASE OF CRIME, AND FOREIGN DOMINATION OF THE COUNTRY. THE MOVEMENT FOR CHANGE (PZP, ELEVEN PARLIAMENTARY SEATS) HAS CRITICIZED ALLEGED GOVERNMENT CORRUPTION AND THE PRIVATIZATION PROCESS, STATING THAT "MONTENEGRO HAS BEEN TURNED INTO A PRIVATE STATE." ¶15. (SBU) THE ENERGY SECTOR HAS BECOME AN ISSUE WITHIN THE RULING COALITION. THE PRIVATIZATION OF THE THERMO POWER PLANT AND THE COAL MINE OF PLJEVLJA HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETED. WHILE THE DPS REMAINS FIRMLY DETERMINED TO COMPLETE THE PRIVATIZATION OF THE TWO COMPANIES, A FACTION IN THE JUNIOR PARTNER SDP IS STRONGLY AGAINST THE PRIVATIZATION, PARTICULARLY IF THE SALE IS TO THE LEADING BIDDER, THE EN+ GROUP OWNED BY THE RUSSIAN TYCOON OLEG DERIPASKA (WHO BOUGHT KAP IN DECEMBER 2004 - KAP CONSUMES ABOUT 40% OF MONTENEGRO'S ELECTRICITY). PENDING ISSUES -------------- ¶16. (SBU) ONE YEAR AFTER INDEPENDENCE THE NEW CONSTITUTION HAS NOT YET BEEN ADOPTED. ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF THE TEXT HAS BEEN AGREED, AND LEGISLATION SPECIFYING PROCEDURES FOR ADOPTION OF THE NEW CONSTITUTION WAS APPROVED. CONTENTIOUS POINTS SUCH AS THE OFFICIAL LANGUAGE, RELIGION, AND THE SELECTION OF THE JUDICIARY ARE STILL UNRESOLVED. IF THE NEW CONSTITUTION IS NOT APPROVED BY A TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT (54 OF 81 SEATS; THE RULING COALITION HAS 41),A PUBLIC REFERENDUM MUST BE HELD. THE DESIGNATED PERIOD OF PUBLIC DEBATE ON THE NEW CONSTITUTION HAS JUST BEEN COMPLETED, BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THE "DEBATE," WHICH WAS LACKADAISICAL AT BEST, RESOLVED ANY OF THE OUTSTANDING QUESTIONS. POST DOES NOT EXPECT A PARLIAMENTARY VOTE BEFORE THE EARLY FALL. COMMENT -------------- ¶17. (SBU) UNTIL THE QUESTION WAS RESOLVED A YEAR AGO, THE ISSUE OF MONTENEGROS STATE STATUS OVERSHADOWED ALL OTHER TOPICS. CURRENTLY, INDEPENDENCE IS ACCEPTED BY ALMOST ALL, INCLUDING THOSE WHO HAD CAMPAIGNED AGAINST IT. IT IS NOW LITERALLY LAST YEAR'S ISSUE. THE STRUGGLE FOR A BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE PROSPEROUS MONTENEGRO IS FINALLY STARTING. THE GENERAL PUBLIC'S PERCEPTION IS THAT THINGS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE B T #0182 N -- END OF ERRORED MESSAGE -- PODGORICA 00000182 004.3 OF 004 INDEPENDENCE; THEY ARE NEITHER BETTER NOR WORSE. MONTENEGRO HAS GAINED ITS INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL IDENTITY, BUT PEOPLE HAVE YET TO PERCEIVE AN IMPROVEMENT IN THEIR PERSONAL LIVING STANDARDS. THE CHALLENGE FOR MONTENEGRO'S LEADERSHIP IS TO TRANSFORM A STRONG MACROECONOMIC BASE AND THE RIGHT TO MAKE ITS OWN DECISIONS INTO BALANCED MICROECONOMIC GROWTH, PUTTING MONTENEGRO INTO THE MAINSTREAM AND LEAVING ITS BACKWATER STATUS BEHIND. END COMMENT. FERRILL B T #0182 N -- END OF ERRORED MESSAGE --