KOSOVO: MONTENEGRO ADVOCATES CG UNITY ON EARLY DECISION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000013 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MW SR SUBJECT: KOSOVO: MONTENEGRO ADVOCATES CG UNITY ON EARLY DECISION PODGORICA 00000013 001.3 OF 002 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: THE GOM BELIEVES THAT DELAYING A DECISION ON THE STATUS OF KOSOVO IS ULTIMATELY DETRIMENTAL TO SERBIA AND THE SERBS. FM ROCEN STRESSED THAT CONTACT GROUP UNITY ON THE STATUS OF KOSOVO IS CRUCIAL. DRAWING ON HIS EXPERIENCE AS SAM AMBASSADOR TO MOSCOW, ROCEN SAID HE BELIEVED THAT RUSSIA WOULD NOT BREAK CONSENSUS IF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY (IC) WAS OTHERWISE UNIFIED ON AHTISSARI'S PROPOSAL. THE GOM ALSO OBSERVED THAT "EVERYONE IN SERBIA KNOWS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN," AND THAT THE IC SHOULD DO MORE TO REACH TO THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY IN SERBIA, WHICH IS THE MOST AWARE OF THE PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH DELAYING A DECISION ON KOSOVO. END SUMMARY. DELAY ON KOSOVO BAD FOR SERBIA -------------- ¶2. (SBU) MEETING WITH CHARGE ON JANUARY 19, FM ROCEN COMMENTED THAT THE SOLUTION FOR KOSOVO MUST NOT BE DELAYED, THAT A FURTHER DELAY WOULD AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION. TO THAT END, HE ADDED, THE CONSENSUS OF ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONTACT GROUP IN SUPPORT OF AHTISSARI'S PROPOSAL IS VERY IMPORTANT. MOREOVER, THE DECISION ON KOSOVO'S STATUS "MUST CANCEL" UNSCR 1244, SPECIFICALLY THE PROVISION THAT KOSOVO IS PART OF SERBIA. DRAWING ON HIS RECENT EXPERIENCE AS SAM AMBASSADOR TO MOSCOW (LEAVING IN FEBRUARY 2006),ROCEN SAID THAT HE DID NOT EXPECT RUSSIA TO UNILATERALLY BREAK CONSENSUS ON AHTISSARI'S PROPOSAL FOR KOSOVO'S STATUS. IF, HOWEVER, THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY (IC) WAS NOT UNIFIED, RUSSIA WOULD NOT BE HELPFUL IN SEEKING CONSENSUS. THE WORST POSSIBLE CASE, SAID ROCEN, IS IF THE PROPOSAL WAS NOT "FULLY VETTED" BY THE UN AND UNSC, AND IT ALLOWED BELGRADE AND PRISTINA TO REACH DIFFERENT CONCLUSIONS ABOUT WHAT IT MEANT FOR SERBIA AND FOR KOSOVO. MONTENEGRIN AMBASSADOR TO THE U.S. (AND FORMER FM) VLAHOVIC, IN A SEPARATE MEETING WITH CHARGE JANUARY 19, AGREED WITH ROCEN'S VIEWS AS TO THE IMPORTANCE OF CG UNITY, AND EXPRESSED GREATER CONCERN ABOUT THE HARM TO SERBIA OF FURTHER DELAYING A DECISION ON KOSOVO. NOTE: ROCEN AND VLAHOVIC ARE NOT DISPOSED TO AGREE ON MOST ISSUES. END NOTE. ¶3. (SBU) THE GOM ALSO OBSERVED THAT "EVERYONE IN SERBIA KNOWS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN" IN KOSOVO. HE AND VLAHOVIC BOTH TOLD CHARGE THAT THE IC SHOULD DO MORE TO REACH TO THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY IN SERBIA, WHICH IS THE MOST AWARE OF THE HOW KOSOVO'S UNRESOLVED STATUS IS NEGATIVELY AFFECTING FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN SERBIA. FM ROCEN COMMENTED THAT THE IC "SPENT TOO MUCH TIME" TALKING TO POLITICIANS AND NGOS IN SERBIA ABOUT KOSOVO. VLAHOVIC ADDED THAT HE HAS BEEN TOLD THAT SERBIAN PRESIDENT TADIC PLANS TO TRAVEL TO MITROVICA AFTER THE JANUARY 21 SERBIAN ELECTIONS, TO ADVISE SERBS THERE TO STAY IN KOSOVO. NO GOM RUSH TO RECOGNITION -------------- ¶4. (SBU) FM ROCEN REITERATED THAT THAT MONTENEGRO WILL NOT RUSH TO RECOGNIZE INDEPENDENT KOSOVO, IF COUNTRIES DECIDE TO RECOGNIZE KOSOVO'S INDEPENDENCE BILATERALLY. FOR MONTENEGRO'S FOREIGN POLICY, SERBIA IS THE TOP PRIORITY. MONTENEGRO, HE ADDED, WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN EXCELLENT RELATIONS WITH BOTH THE KOSOVO LEADERSHIP (NOTE: KOSOVO PM CEKU RECENTLY VISITED MONTENEGRO) AND WITH SERBIA. SERBIAN LEADERSHIP HAS NO VISION -------------- ¶5. (SBU) ROCEN SAID THE ISSUE OF KOSOVO IS VERY COMPLEX, ORIGINATING EVEN BEFORE MILOSEVIC CAME TO POWER. WITH MILOSEVIC GONE, THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS NEGLECTED THE ISSUE OF KOSOVO, HE OPINES. HE CRITICIZED INCUMBENT SERBIAN AUTHORITIES FOR THEIR POLICY TOWARDS KOSOVO, CITING PM KOSTUNICA IN PARTICULAR FOR A LACK OF VISION AND TOO FOCUSED ON POLITICAL B T #0013 N -- END OF ERRORED MESSAGE -- PODGORICA 00000013 002.3 OF 002 DEBATES. ROCEN SAID THAT NOT ONLY HAS THE GOS CONTINUED WITH POLICIES SIMILAR TO THOSE OF MILOSEVIC, BUT THEY HAVE ALSO NEEDLESSLY ACCEPTED RESPONSIBILITY FOR MILOSEVIC'S LEGACY. HE DOES NOT BELIEVE THAT SERBIAN JANUARY 21 GENERAL ELECTIONS WILL HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON SERBIAN STATE POLICY TOWARDS KOSOVO. AFTERMATH -------------- ¶6. (SBU) ROCEN TOLD CHARGE HE BELIEVES THAT THE SERBIAN SIDE WILL NOT PROVOKE ANY VIOLENCE IN KOSOVO IRRESPECTIVE OF THE FINAL OUTCOME. BUT IT IS IMPORTANT, HE SAYS, TO CONTROL THE ALBANIANS IN KOSOVO, THOSE WHO MIGHT BE DISSATISFIED WITH THE FINAL OUTCOME. BARNES B T #0013 N -- END OF ERRORED MESSAGE --