RUDDERLESS FUNCINPEC NOT RULING ANYTHING OUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PHNOM PENH 000904 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS, INR E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM CB SUBJECT: RUDDERLESS FUNCINPEC NOT RULING ANYTHING OUT Classified By: Pol/Econ Officer Jennifer Spande for reason 1.4 (b). ¶1. (C) Summary. FUNCINPEC's leaders appear to have no guiding vision for their party and are disjointedly discussing party independence, reunification with the Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP),and a continued coalition with the ruling CPP. At a June 28 lunch with the Ambassador and DCM, FUNCINPEC President Keo Puth Rasmey, Prince Sisowath Sirirath, and Minister of Education Kol Pheng found it easier to revel in the party's glory days and lampoon Prince Norodom Ranariddh than to put forward any definite strategy for the party's growth. Instead, the leaders gave the impression of marking their time, that they are willing to cooperate with anyone, a strategy that is likely to ensure their survival for the moment but will continue to erode what little influence they may still have. End Summary. FUNCINPEC's Survival: Exceeding their Low Expectations -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) FUNCINPEC had fared better since Ranariddh's departure than Rasmey had expected, the FUNCINPEC President said, admitting that at one point he feared the party would not survive. He claimed that Ranariddh has been the real loser from the split, attracting fewer than half of the FUNCINPEC base. (Comment: This claim comes despite the NRP outperforming FUNCINPEC in the April 1, 2007 commune council election, and represents a significant lowering of aspirations from Rasmey's pre-election posture. End Comment.) Moreover, Rasmey rebutted speculation that Ranariddh's continued absence from Cambodia had hurt the NRP's performance in the election, instead asserting that it may have actually helped by generating sympathy for the embattled leader who faces an 18-month prison term at home. In the 2008 national elections, whenRanariddh has either returned from self-imposed exile or his absence is old news, the NRP will lose those sympathy votes and FUNCINPEC is likely to fare even better, Rasmey suggested. ¶3. (SBU) Rasmey said he was proud of FUNCINPEC's policy achievements over the years, but admitted that the party had failed to translate these accomplishments into voter support. He noted that being in a coalition with the ruling CPP has put them in a difficult position, as FUNCINPEC can neither effectively claim credit for government successes (which the CPP publicizes as their own) nor criticize their partner party's shortcomings. To address this dilemma, FUNCINPEC will strive to differentiate itself from the CPP without actually publicly opposing the party. FUNCINPEC's 2008 political platform will be based on the notion of "progressive monarchy", Rasmey said, explaining that this would mean support for democracy and human rights as well as maintaining the monarchy. The party will concentrate its political efforts in 15 of Cambodia's most populous provinces. Rapprochement with Ranariddh Possible -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Rasmey and his FUNCINPEC colleagues appeared to have mixed feelings about Ranariddh, delighting in disparaging his self-importance and recounting unflattering stories about the prince while simultaneously admiring his charisma and emotional appeal to voters. The FUNCINPEC leaders expressed confidence that their party could survive without Ranariddh and claimed unconvincingly that they, not the NRP, had momentum among royalist supporters. Rasmey also said that lower-profile royals like Prince Thomico and Ranariddh advisors Ok Socheat and Noranarith Anandyath had indicated their willingness to re-join FUNCINPEC. (Note: Prince Thomico publicly announced his move to FUNCINPEC on July 2. End Note.) ¶5. (SBU) "Sometimes one plus one equals three or four," Rasmey observed, indicating that if the NRP and FUNCINPEC were to re-join forces, they might attract a new group of supporters disenchanted with other parties. Rasmey gave contradictory messages about how eager the party was to reunite with Ranariddh, at one point claiming that he was "in no rush to talk to Ranariddh" but would be open to discussing reunification if Ranariddh approached them first. ¶6. (SBU) However, Rasmey later allowed that he had traveled to Kuala Lumpur to meet with the prince after the April 1 elections, a trip for which he had secured the Prime Minister's blessing in advance. Ultimately, Rasmey and Ranariddh failed to meet because they could not establish in advance the circumstances under which Ranariddh might return to the party. Ranariddh insisted that FUNCINPEC must agree to three conditions: convincing the government to drop its arrest warrant against him so that he could return to Cambodia, the reunited FUNCINPEC operating without internal PHNOM PENH 00000904 002 OF 002 divisions, and reinstating Ranariddh as party leader. Rasmey stated he had no problem with the first two conditions, but that the last condition was hard to accept as FUNCINPEC was not comfortable with Ranariddh in any role more visible or powerful than the "historical president" position they had offered him several months ago. (Comment: It seemed to us that their insistence that Ranariddh return to the symbolic but powerless post of "historical president" all but guarantees he will not return to the fold. However, the FUNCINPEC representatives insisted Ranariddh had not discounted this possibility. End Comment.) ¶7. (SBU) In a separate conversation with Poloff on July 3, Ky Lum Ang, FUNCINPEC Deputy Undersecretary for Political Affairs, said that the deal with Prince Thomico and Ok Socheat had been approved but that FUNCINPEC's Steering Committee was still reviewing what exact positions to offer the two NRP defectors. She held out no hope that Thomico would be able to act as a bridge to Ranariddh and likened FUNCINPEC to a dysfunctional family after the parents had divorced. Her personal assessment was that FUNCINPEC was now "falling" and that all of its accomplishments over the years will have been for nought unless a reunion with Ranariddh can be fashioned. That, she said, depended on the proud Ranariddh coming back to the table in negotiations she labeled as "ongoing." FUNCINPEC Open to Coalition with CPP -------------- ¶8. (SBU) When asked to comment on speculation that FUNCINPEC exists because the Prime Minister allows it to exist, Rasmey seemed to suggest that he realized his party could not function without some sort of tacit blessing from the PM. Rasmey confided that he was open to continuing FUNCINPEC's coalition with the CPP after the next election, noting that a reunited FUNCINPEC could be an effective coalition partner for the CPP. Rasmey had in fact already discussed the possibility of a new coalition with Hun Sen, he said, and the Prime Minister reportedly said he would be willing to partner again with FUNCINPEC as long as the party did not exacerbate divisions within the CPP. Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) FUNCINPEC's leaders articulate no clear sense of how to guide their party and seem to hope that FUNCINPEC's former glory and their willingness to form alliances with anyone will ensure their survival. The party seems least interested in joining a grand coalition of opposition forces. FUNCINPEC's purported platform of "progressive monarchy" fails to distinguish it from any of the other opposition parties, who all support greater political freedoms and maintaining the monarchy. Moreover, in Cambodia's personality-driven politics, FUNCINPEC's bland leaders have nothing to offer voters. Given the party's lack of ideological backbone and apparent willingness to partner with anyone who asks, the party is likely to survive for a while longer, fading slowly, but never gaining any real influence or power. End Comment. MUSSOMELI