CAMBODIA'S COMMUNE ELECTIONS: CPP WINNING AMID

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PHNOM PENH 000496 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS SINGAPORE PLEASE PASS TO DAS ERIC JOHN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM CB SUBJECT: CAMBODIA'S COMMUNE ELECTIONS: CPP WINNING AMID LOWER VOTER TURNOUT ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Based on preliminary reports from the April 1 commune elections, the ruling party of Prime Minister Hun Sen has won a majority of the nation's 1,621 communes, with the opposition Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) coming in a clear second. It appears that most of the FUNCINPEC votes went to the SRP, with both FUNCINPEC and the Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP) gaining only a small number of the overall seats. Turnout among registered voters appears to have dropped significantly since the 2002 and 2003 elections; the National Election Committee (NEC) estimated 70 percent turnout while other sources place it lower. Electoral complaints during the pre-election period reportedly have dropped since 2002, although most sources indicate that there were irregularities. Inability to find one's name on the voter lists and to figure out the right polling station continued to be a limited, but regular, complaint and one that the UNDP had hoped would be rectified during the 2007 balloting. Even before the polls closed on April 1, political parties were looking to the national elections in 2008. A report of the direct observations of Embassy's 42 teams of observers will be sent septel. End Summary. Election Day 2007: CPP Wins, Sam Rainsy the Clear Number Two -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) Although the results will not be official until April 24, preliminary results from the NEC and the parties indicate that the ruling Cambodian People's party (CPP) of Prime Minister Hun Sen has won a clear majority of the nation's 1,621 communes, with the CPP estimating that they will hold the commune chief position in 1,590 or more communes. The opposition Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) will receive 27-29 communes, FUNCINPEC perhaps two communes, and none likely for the Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP). CPP senior official Tep Ngorn told us that -- based on CPP information -- CPP will take over 7,000 of the more than 11,000 commune council seats, SRP will be get over 2,300 and FUNCINPEC and NRP will get less than 400 seats each. ¶3. (U) SRP Secretary General Mu Sochua agreed with Tep Ngorn's prediction, but cited many irregularities in the April 1 electoral contest. While noting that intimidation was less than in previous elections, Mu Sochua nevertheless said that the elections had been marred by vote-buying and overly complicated NEC procedures. The SRP official also noted that a grenade had gone off near the home of one of the SRP candidates in Kampong Chhnang province. She said that the SRP will request the NEC to reorganize balloting in two areas where the alleged irregularities may have undermined the outcome of the vote. Noting that the SRP appears to have lost 3 of its 6 Phnom Penh communes, Mu Sochua said that the SRP has won in as many as 27-29 communes -- an increase from the 13 won in 2002. In addition, the strong support for SRP overall means that the opposition party will have representation in more than 90 percent of all the communes. In 2002, the SRP had 11 percent of the total vote; this time SRP will get an estimated 26 percent. ¶4. (U) Ranariddh's party spokesperson blamed the party's poor performance on Prince Ranariddh being out of the country, the party's inexperience and the dispute between FUNCINPEC and the NRP that confused voters. The NRP noted irregularities associated with the polling as well, citing alleged cases in Kampong Cham province where some commune chiefs collected voters' ID information and only made it available to those who voted for the ruling party. Low Voter Turnout -------------- ¶5. (SBU) All the parties and organizations whom the Embassy contacted noted the low voter turnout as compared with 2002 and 2003, where the turnout among registered voters was 80 percent or more. The CPP indicated that the lower turnout could reflect voter apathy. Another possibility was that the polling day fell too close to the Cambodian New Year, and many workers would be unwilling to use their holiday time and transport money to travel to their home provinces twice within a two-week period. Most of the garment factories in Phnom Penh were closed on April 1, but it is unclear if the majority of garment workers took advantage to go to the polls, as many are not registered in Phnom Penh. In Poipet, the casino management only decided on April 1 after the polling had already begun to allow their workers to go vote; many lived too far from Poipet to return quickly and therefore could not vote. ¶6. (U) In general and throughout the country, voters PHNOM PENH 00000496 002 OF 002 flocked to the polls early in the morning and many were in lines outside Phnom Penh voting stations well before the 0700 opening time. Most voters wanted to cast their ballots early and go on to work or the market, and not have to stand in line during the heat of the day. By late morning, the number of voters coming to the polls had dwindled to little more than a sporadic trickle. There were no reports of voters still queued at 1500, when the polls officially closed. By Cambodian law, anyone still in line at 1500 who had not cast a ballot would have been allowed to vote. ¶7. (SBU) Both the CPP and SRP have noted that the political landscape in Cambodia has changed, as reflected in the 2007balloting. Whereas in 2002 and 2003 there were essentially three political parties (CPP, FUNCINPEC, SRP) competing for power, now there are only two -- the CPP and SRP. FUNCINPEC has largely been destroyed, with many of its voters being picked up by the SRP. Following the closing of the polls on April 1, Pol/Econ Chief spoke with Mu Sochua, who indicated that Rainsy is keeping his lines of communication open to both Ranariddh and Kem Sokha as the SRP leader believes that he can mount an effective campaign against the CPP if other opposition figures join him. Meanwhile, Kem Sokha has told us that he plans to submit his party accreditation to the Ministry of Interior in May following his resignation from the Cambodian Center for Human Rights (CCHR). He is tentatively planning a congress for July and at this stage, appears uninterested in an alliance with Rainsy. Kem Sokha attributed the lower voter turnout to the public's disillusionment with the political choices available. Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Although the voter turnout is less than in previous elections, 60-70 percent overall turnout remains impressive and all agree that the election was marred by less violence and intimidation than in the past. However, there remain problems with irregularities, purposeful or accidental, that the NEC remains unwilling or unable to address. These include the confusion over voters lists and polling stations, as well as the presence of unauthorized local authorities in the polling sites in many areas of the country. We agree that the political landscape has evolved into what more closely approximates a two-party system. FUNCINPEC and the NRP will need to do some serious thinking about their respective political futures, and decide whether it's better to join with one of the two main parties or be relegated to the category that includes the many "small" political parties receiving little to no public attention. End Comment. MUSSOMELI