SAM RAINSY ON UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN CAMBODIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PHNOM PENH 000337 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM CB SUBJECT: SAM RAINSY ON UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN CAMBODIA Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Margaret McKean; Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary. In recent meetings with Embassy officials and in public statements, opposition leader Sam Rainsy and SRP officials have raised concerns regarding the technical flaws surrounding the upcoming commune council elections, which they claim could impact the results. Rainsy's party has obtained copies of the updated 2006 voters lists for each of the 24 provinces, and SRP activists have been comparing the current list with the prior 2005 list to ensure that requested changes by voters have been made by the National Election Commission (NEC). SRP alleges that they are consistently finding errors of various types; it is unclear if the complaints -- if unaddressed -- will make a difference in the outcome of some commune elections or if they will be insignificant. The NEC has addressed the complaints in a public statement, noting that the problems will not significantly impede voters' ability to participate. The National Democratic Institute believes the electoral system has adequate existing safeguards to prevent any widespread voter disenfranchisement, albeit at small numbers at each polling station. UNDP has welcomed SRP's efforts to improve the lists and reduce the number of voters who may encounter problems on April 1. End Summary. Sam Rainsy: "Organized Fraud" -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In discussions with donors and the media, opposition party leader Sam Rainsy has warned that the elections on April 1 may amount to an organized campaign of electoral fraud designed to maintain the ruling party in power. In a February meeting with the Ambassador, Rainsy updated us on the results of his recent soundings among SRP officials in each of the country's 24 provinces regarding their impressions of how the April 1 commune council election process is shaping up. Rainsy claimed that his party purchased a copy of the CD-ROM from the NEC that has the latest voter registration list that has been updated to reflect new voter registrations, changes to voter registration information (e.g., changes in name misspellings, incorrect dates of birth, etc.),duplicate names, removal of voters who have died or are no longer are present in a given commune, and the names of ineligible voters from previous lists that the NEC reportedly agreed should be removed. Rainsy said that his officials are consistently reporting problems and inaccuracies surrounding the most recent voter list -- so much so, says Rainsy, that the SRP leader has characterized the problem as "organized fraud" in a press conference on February 15 and in SRP media releases. ¶3. (C) The question remains whether these individual irregularities and errors will lead to disenfranchisement of large numbers of voters on election day and if that in turn will alter the outcome of the elections. Rainsy said that a couple dozen or so voters turned away at a single polling station might not seem like many, but if that pattern is replicated across an entire commune, it could alter the outcome of a close contest and possibly result in the shift of a councilor position or two, depending on the size of the commune council. In a February 23 meeting at SRP headquarters chaired by party Secretary General Mu Sochua, the SRP official provided examples of voter registration discrepancies from three communes, where local SRP activists had diligently compared current voter lists with the previous lists and found problems with all three lists on the magnitude of 5-10 percent of the voters. ¶4. (C) The NEC responded to the SRP allegations through a February 26 press statement, in which the NEC said that the cases identified by the SRP would not damage the process. UNDP and NDI, however, have tried to reassure the SRP that many of the problems identified will not result in voters being turned away at the polls. There are adequate safeguards to prevent widespread manipulation of the results and the NEC's own directives have already addressed some SRP concerns. For those voters whose names are misspelled, for example, the NEC has instructed poll officials that if the pronunciation of the name is the same, then the person may vote. Use of indelible ink should prevent people from using the multiple names of the same voter to vote more than once. The numbers of party poll monitors and NGO community observers will also help in identifying any patterns of voter disenfranchisement across communes, say NDI officials. UNDP and NDI have both held separate meetings with the SRP in light of the SRP's allegations, and note that there is improved understanding on the part of the opposition on these issues. A UNDP official welcomed SRP involvment in scrutinizing the voter lists, saying that it was helpful for the SRP and other political parties to carefully cull the voter lists and report discrepancies to the NEC so that they PHNOM PENH 00000337 002 OF 002 can be corrected. The fewer problems encountered on election day, the better for Cambodia, noted the same official. ¶5. (SBU) Rainsy has been holding meetings with candidates and helping them to prepare for debates with representatives of other parties. He has underscored that candidates need to work their communes and engage the electorate in order to win. The ruling party, he has noted, is relying on the standard methods employed in previous elections: discrimination of SRP voters to discourage people from joining the opposition party, intimidation/threats, and finally vote buying. He urged candidates to ensure that SRP party poll monitors adhere to the rules and remain loyal to the party, and that SRP candidates -- no matter where they are ranked on the list -- work together to ensure a victorious outcome. (Note: The commune council makeup will be determined on a proportional system. Thus, the candidate whose name is first on the list stands the best chance of being elected, depending on the respective party's overall total. End Note.) Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Diplomatic missions are coordinating with the UNDP on election observation, which will be crucial to assessing the outcome of the elections on April 1. At this stage, NGOs and UNDP believe that the election day process will be smooth, with few glitches. We note little in the way of pre-election violence and up-tick in crime that characterized elections in 2002 and 2003. We also anticipate few surprises on April 1 and concur with NDI that there are adequate safeguards to ensure the technical success of the elections. In addition, most observers agree that the ruling party's dominance of electronic media, their extensive grassroots network of CPP officials, and their use of state coffers to entice popular candidates and reward voters give the CPP a distinct advantage going into the elections. These factors, more than any minor tinkering with voter registration lists, are likely determining the outcome of the elections even before the voters go to the polls on April 1. End Comment. CAMPBELL