NWFP: MILITANTS EXPANDING THEIR HOLD ON SWAT

S E C R E T PESHAWAR 000716 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/9/2017 TAGS: PTER MOPS PGOV PK SUBJECT: NWFP: MILITANTS EXPANDING THEIR HOLD ON SWAT REF: PESHAWAR 705 CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne Tracy, Principal Officer, Peshawar, State. REASON: 1.4 (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Swat's militants are expanding their hold, moving north and east in the district. Security forces and local residents have been demoralized by militant gains. Local officials acknowledge the task of re-establishing government control of the district is becoming increasingly difficult. Whether that recognition is impacting the pace of security operations is unclear. End Summary. Militants March North -- and Possibly East -------------- ¶2. (C) NWFP Home Secretary Badshah Gul Wazir (strictly protect) confirmed to PO on November 8 that Swat militants had reached Madyan (approximately 45 km north of the district capital Saidu Sharif). The militants, according to the Home Secretary, were also moving further into Swat's northern Kalam valley. Mingora, just outside of Saidu Sharif, he said, was also at risk. Mullah Faizullah announced on November 6 the appointment of "governors" over Swat sub-districts. (Note: Government operations appear to have paused. There have been no reports of any counter measures to check the movement of the militants. Post understands that security forces are being grouped in larger numbers in fortified posts in southern parts of the district. End Note.) ¶3. (C) Echoing the concerns of officials in neighboring Mansehra district (Ref A),Wazir commented that areas to the east of Swat were vulnerable to the militants. A northern-based contact told post separately on November 8 that militants had moved into Al Purai approximately 20 km west of the district border with Mansehra. On November 9, Consulate local staff observed a pickup truck of armed men in Thakot (Battagram district near the Swat border). The men were overheard in the bazaar claiming to be "taliban." ¶4. (C) The government is considering, the Home Secretary said, a cordon operation with more robust air support (timeline NFI) to counter further militant movement. (Comment: Given the expanding territory that must now be covered and Pakistani military capabilities, post is skeptical that a cordon operation will act as an effective check on the militants. End Comment.) Police Demoralized and Retreating -------------- ¶5. (C) The Home Secretary acknowledged that police were pulling �A;out of their stations in northern Swat and scattering to avoid capture by militants. Most of the police stations are manned, he explained, with only 15-20 personnel. Militants, he continued, are well-armed and coming in numbers (NFI) capable of overrunning the stations. The militants' capture and release of 48 security personnel on November 2 (Ref A),the Home Secretary remarked, had demoralized the police. The 48 had come under siege, Wazir said, and efforts to re-supply or rescue them with air support had failed. Police still operating in northern Swat, he added, were determined to avoid getting caught in the same situation. Eroding Public Confidence -------------- ¶6. (C) The instances of police capture and retreat, the Home Secretary commented, were eroding public confidence in the SIPDIS government among Swatis who might otherwise have been prepared to take on the militants. Local residents, he said, had observed the inability of the military to assist the 48 personnel captured by the militants. The only encouraging sign, he noted, was the resistance of a few elders in the Kalam area who have told militants to leave because their "assistance" was not needed. More Reports of Outside Help -------------- ¶7. (C) Wazir attributed the open challenge by Tehrik-i Nafaz-i Shariat-i Mohammad-i (TNSM - Movement for the Enforcement of the Prophet Mohammad's Sharia Law) in mid-October (Ref B) to an influx of "foreigners and outsiders" whose numbers had strengthened and emboldened TNSM's Mullah Faizullah. A Peshawar contact with ties to the Waziristan area told PO on November 6 of reports that militants had been moving out of North Waziristan and heading toward Swat in early/mid-October. (Note: In early/mid-October, the Pakistani army conducted a series of operations in North Waziristan's Mir Ali area. End Note.) Militant Training Camp in Swat? -------------- ¶8. (S/NF) In separate conversations in early November, local contacts told post of a training camp in a remote valley in southwestern Swat. The camp is reportedly run by the "Pewchar Group." One contact based in the Swat area commented, "everyone knows about this camp." (Note: Some local authorities believe that the Pewchar Group was responsible for the November 2006 attack on the Dargai military training facility near Swat. Little is known about this group or its possible ties to TNSM or other militant groups operating in the vicinity. End Note.) Comment -------------- ¶9. (S) Peshawar observers are expressing deep alarm over the militants' increasing hold in Swat and possible ambitions elsewhere in the northern areas of the province. Government officials admit that the longer the present situation in Swat continues, the harder it will be to dislodge the militants. Whether that recognition is impacting the planning and pace of a government response is unclear. ¶10. (U) This cable was cleared with Embassy Islamabad. TRACY