FRENCH POLICY PLANNER SHARES VIEWS ON MIDDLE EAST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000776

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/27/2017
TAGS: FR IR IS IZ LE PGOV PREL SY
SUBJECT: FRENCH POLICY PLANNER SHARES VIEWS ON MIDDLE EAST


REF: 06 PARIS 7242

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Christian Nakhle, the MFA's lead policy
planner for the Middle East, told us on February 27 that he
just returned from a 10-day trip to the Gulf and was deeply
worried about Bahrain's internal stability, saying he foresaw
the possibility of serious political unrest developing within
the next twelve months. On Iran, Nakhle said he was
convinced that efforts were underway to marginalize
Ahmadinejad, but he was unsure what to make of them. Nakhle
said his Gulf interlocutors were persuaded that the U.S. and
Europe will eventually cut a deal with Iran that will leave
the region's Sunni residents holding the bag. End summary.

Concern over Bahrain's Stability
--------------


2. (C) Poloff met February 27 with Christian Nakhle, head of
the Middle East cell at the MFA's Centre d'Analyse et de
Prevision (i.e., the "CAP," the Quai's S/P equivalent).
Nakhle, who just completed a 10-day trip to the Gulf states,
began by voicing deep concern over Bahrain's internal
stability. "The Shi'ites are playing along with the
political process for now, but they want to see results and
their patience is limited," he said. On the other hand, he
opined that the ruling family had already "gone as far as
they, or the Saudis, can go" toward opening the political
system. Given the gap between Shi'a aspirations and
political reality (including a palpable sense of Sunni
insecurity throughout the region, which was aggravated by the
fact that many Bahraini Shi'ites justified their
participation in the last election in terms of a fatwa issued
by Grand Ayatollah Sistani),Nakhle said he foresaw the
possibility of serious political unrest developing within the
next twelve months.

Open Questions About Iran's Leadership
--------------


3. (C) Turning to Iran, Nakhle said he was convinced that a
"coalition" centered around Supreme Leader Khamenei, former
President Rafsanjani, and former FM Ali Akbar Velayati, was
in the process of marginalizing President Ahmadinejad and
might even be laying the groundwork to depose him later this
year. However, Nakhle confessed he was uncertain whether the
anti-Ahmadinejad coalition was tactical (i.e., driven by
disagreement with the Iranian President's methods) or
strategic (i.e., motivated by genuine disagreement with his
aims, including his avowed unwillingness to compromise on
Iran's nuclear program). He expressed similar doubts about
Mohammed-Bakr Qalibaf, the Mayor of Tehran. On the one hand,
Nakhle saw Qalibaf as a "modern conservative" whose
traditionalism and pragmatism garnered the respect of both
Khamenei and Rafsanjani, thereby making him a likely
candidate to replace Ahmadinejad in the event of his
impeachment. On the other hand, Nakhle questioned whether
Qalibaf would retain the substance of Ahmadinejad's policies
while merely changing their tone. "We are not necessarily
better off with a more pragmatic hard-liner," he noted.


4. (C) In the absence of clear answers to these questions,
Nakhle argued that the West must proceed cautiously so as not
to miss the possibility of a deal with Tehran. "Even a
tactical deal that lasts five years would be better than a
strategic deal that falls apart after a few months," he
opined.

Iraq: Lost to Iran
--------------


5. (C) Drawing upon his many "Track II" conversations with
Gulf interlocutors in recent weeks, Nakhle delineated what he
described as the prevalent Gulf (Sunni) Arab view of Iraq.
According to this narrative, it is only a matter of time
until the U.S. and Europe -- recognizing Iran's ability to
threaten their interests in Iraq, Lebanon, and Israel -- are
compelled to cut a deal with Tehran. "It may take a year or
two, but it's inevitable," he was told. The essence of that
deal (setting aside the nuclear question) will be to accept
Iran's emergence as a regional power in exchange for moderate
Iranian behavior. Iraq will be bifurcated, with U.S. forces
withdrawing into Kurdistan while the Shi'ites dominate the
south and incrementally impose their will on a "gray zone" of
conflict centered around Baghdad. "The battle for Baghdad is
just beginning, and it will last for at least ten or fifteen
years, but the Sunnis aren't kidding themselves -- they've

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already written Iraq off as lost to Iran," said Nakhle, who
seemed largely persuaded by this thesis. "The Sunnis will
emerge as the losers, and will see themselves as the victims
of an American-Iranian condominium," he summarized.


6. (C) Nakhle added that he was struck during his meetings in
Jeddah (where he met primarily with academics and
journalists) by the number of times his Saudi interlocutors
asserted that they had lost "all confidence" in the United
States. He said he heard a general consensus that U.S.
military action against Tehran was more to be feared than a
nuclear-armed Iran. "What do we care if the Iranians get the
bomb? They are still Muslims, even if they are Shi'ites.
Besides, if they do, we'll get one ourselves," several Saudis
told him.

Mecca Accord
--------------


7. (C) Nakhle said he also heard frequent complaints that the
U.S. and EU had not done more to welcome the Mecca Accord,
which was touted both as a means of avoiding a Palestinian
civil war and of locking Hamas into a position where it would
be obliged to make additional compromises over time. "You
are dynamiting the unity government! You expect Hamas to
evolve in 12 months toward a position that it took the PLO 30
years to reach," said one accuser. Though sympathetic to
that argument (Nakhle, like most of our Quai contacts, shares
President Chirac's fervent conviction that the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains at the heart of the
region's troubles),Nakhle tended to view the accord as the
beginning of a Saudi-Egyptian effort to woo Syrian President
Asad away from Iran and bring him back into the Arab fold.







Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm

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