AMBASSADOR'S REVIEW OF ELECTORAL SITUATION WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000654 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, AND EB DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2015 TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S REVIEW OF ELECTORAL SITUATION WITH JACQUES ATTALI Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reaso ns 1.4 (b) and (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) At a meeting February 15, Ambassador reviewed the state of play in the French presidential election with noted author and political insider Jacques Attali. Attali, whose dense network of friendships includes decades-long relationships with President Chirac and the two leading contenders to succeed him, Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist presidential candidate Segolene Royal, remains convinced Royal will win the upcoming election, barring some highly mediatized misstep that knocks public confidence out from under her candidacy. In Attali's view, a range of underlying factors -- from the tendency to alternate the center-left and center-right in power in advanced democracies, to the novelty of a woman's candidacy -- have convinced him that the election, still two months away, is Royal's to lose. Attali added that he believed that Sarkozy "was worried" because he "is ahead too soon," and because a collapse of Royal's candidacy would unite the left and center against him behind the centrist candidacy of former education minister Francois Bayrou. End Summary. ROYAL'S TO LOSE -------------- ¶2. (C) Attali prefaced his February 15 remarks about the state of play in the race for France's presidency by recounting how he regularly exchanged SMS messages with Royal, and how "that very morning, in fact" he had been on the phone with Sarkozy. "I'm friends with both" Attali stressed, before unequivocally stating his view that "I still believe she is going to win...she is going to be elected" unless a highly-mediatized mishap triggers a loss of credibility that sinks her candidacy. Attali touched on some of the underlying factors that, in the view of many analysts, tend to favor the candidacy of Royal over that of Sarkozy. Among these are a marked preference in advanced democracies to alternate the center-left and center-right in power, the way that Royal's bid to be the first woman president is itself a potentially powerful plus for her, and the way that Royal built her career on what have turned out to be key issues in the campaign (incomes policy and the cost of living, education, inequality, the environment, etc.). Attali specifically noted that French anti-Americanism also tended to favor Royal since -- however much he and his allies might insist on the contrary -- Sarkozy's trip to the U.S. last Fall and his meeting with President Bush "have cost him politically." Attali, however, also pointed out that the Royal campaign could well self-destruct; "it's a mess," Attali said of Royal's troubled campaign, "she wants to decide everything herself." ¶3. (C) Attali, like all our contacts among political insiders, dismissed the significance of polls while at the same time analyzing them closely. He focused in particular on the ups and downs in response to the question (featured in a leading daily's monthly poll),"In your heart-of-hearts whom would like to see elected president?" According to Attali, that Royal has consistently come in ahead of all other contenders in response to this particular question is the most reliable polling indicator of the strength of her candidacy. (Note: In the most recent iteration of this monthly poll, published February 17 -- after her string of recent difficulties but before an important February 19 TV appearance -- Royal came in below Sarkozy, 32 to 36 percent. End Note.) SARKOZY WORRIED DESPITE LEAD -------------- ¶4. (C) Attali continued his account of the current state of play in the campaign by cautioning against "making the same mistake" that, he said, many in Sarkozy's campaign are making -- assuming that opinion polling today accurately predicts electoral polling two months from now. Attali said that "only Sarkozy is spared this arrogance in his camp." Indeed, Attali underlined, Sarkozy is "worried" that victory could slip away from him because "it's not good when you're ahead too soon." In addition, any "collapse" of Royal's candidacy would expose him to a united left and center behind the candidacy of centrist Francois Bayrou, head of the Union for French Democracy (UDF) party. (Note: In polls taken February 14 - 15, current first-round support for Bayrou came in in PARIS 00000654 002 OF 002 the low teens, double the 6 percent of the vote he took in the first round of the 2002 election. End Note). ¶5. (C) Sarkozy, according to Attali, also runs the risk of an unforeseen media event upsetting his candidacy, particularly if that incident is security related, and he is still at the helm of the Ministry of the Interior. Attali said that Sarkozy's entire campaign team "is asking him to leave" the Interior Ministry, but that Sarkozy's wife and (and key political advisor) Cecilia Sarkozy is "is pushing him to stay." Attali confirmed what is an open secret in Parisian political circles, that Sarkozy's wife, who is "very attached to the trappings of power," does not want to move from the palatial apartments that are the official residence of the Minister of Interior, except to move across the street to the Elysee Palace. (Note: Sarkozy has repeatedly postponed his departure from the government, which had been expected for mid-January, around the time of his official designation as the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party's candidate for president. End Note.) CHIRAC -- "AS IF HE'D BE THERE FOREVER" -------------- ¶6. (C) Attali recalled that he had known President Chirac "since he was my brother's tutor" when Chirac was still a university student. Attali said that, based on his recent conversations with the President, Chirac gives the impression "that he thinks as if he would be in office forever," and only recently had begun thinking of "following the American example" and dedicating himself to "his library or foundation," or to some special role promoting development once he leaves office. Attali also said that Chirac "had become more human" of late, revealing much more warmth and humor in social settings than was the wont of the "intense political animal" of his decades in high office. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Attali's views provide a good snapshot of how things stand in France's presidential race almost exactly two months before the first round of the election (April 22). Attali used the phrase "change and generational renewal" to encapsulate the significance of the upcoming election and its two, baby-boomer principal candidates. Nearly all political observers believe that -- if these two leading candidates, Segolene Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy, make it to a second-round run-off as expected -- that run-off (May 6) will be exceedingly close. End Comment. Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm STAPLETON