AMBASSADOR'S REVIEW OF ELECTORAL SITUATION WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000654

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD,
AND EB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2015
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S REVIEW OF ELECTORAL SITUATION WITH
JACQUES ATTALI


Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reaso
ns 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
--------------

1. (C) At a meeting February 15, Ambassador reviewed the
state of play in the French presidential election with noted
author and political insider Jacques Attali. Attali, whose
dense network of friendships includes decades-long
relationships with President Chirac and the two leading
contenders to succeed him, Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy
and Socialist presidential candidate Segolene Royal, remains
convinced Royal will win the upcoming election, barring some
highly mediatized misstep that knocks public confidence out
from under her candidacy. In Attali's view, a range of
underlying factors -- from the tendency to alternate the
center-left and center-right in power in advanced
democracies, to the novelty of a woman's candidacy -- have
convinced him that the election, still two months away, is
Royal's to lose. Attali added that he believed that Sarkozy
"was worried" because he "is ahead too soon," and because a
collapse of Royal's candidacy would unite the left and center
against him behind the centrist candidacy of former education
minister Francois Bayrou. End Summary.

ROYAL'S TO LOSE
--------------

2. (C) Attali prefaced his February 15 remarks about the
state of play in the race for France's presidency by
recounting how he regularly exchanged SMS messages with
Royal, and how "that very morning, in fact" he had been on
the phone with Sarkozy. "I'm friends with both" Attali
stressed, before unequivocally stating his view that "I still
believe she is going to win...she is going to be elected"
unless a highly-mediatized mishap triggers a loss of
credibility that sinks her candidacy. Attali touched on some
of the underlying factors that, in the view of many analysts,
tend to favor the candidacy of Royal over that of Sarkozy.
Among these are a marked preference in advanced democracies
to alternate the center-left and center-right in power, the
way that Royal's bid to be the first woman president is
itself a potentially powerful plus for her, and the way that
Royal built her career on what have turned out to be key
issues in the campaign (incomes policy and the cost of
living, education, inequality, the environment, etc.).
Attali specifically noted that French anti-Americanism also
tended to favor Royal since -- however much he and his allies
might insist on the contrary -- Sarkozy's trip to the U.S.
last Fall and his meeting with President Bush "have cost him
politically." Attali, however, also pointed out that the
Royal campaign could well self-destruct; "it's a mess,"
Attali said of Royal's troubled campaign, "she wants to
decide everything herself."


3. (C) Attali, like all our contacts among political
insiders, dismissed the significance of polls while at the
same time analyzing them closely. He focused in particular
on the ups and downs in response to the question (featured in
a leading daily's monthly poll),"In your heart-of-hearts
whom would like to see elected president?" According to
Attali, that Royal has consistently come in ahead of all
other contenders in response to this particular question is
the most reliable polling indicator of the strength of her
candidacy. (Note: In the most recent iteration of this
monthly poll, published February 17 -- after her string of
recent difficulties but before an important February 19 TV
appearance -- Royal came in below Sarkozy, 32 to 36 percent.
End Note.)

SARKOZY WORRIED DESPITE LEAD
--------------

4. (C) Attali continued his account of the current state of
play in the campaign by cautioning against "making the same
mistake" that, he said, many in Sarkozy's campaign are making
-- assuming that opinion polling today accurately predicts
electoral polling two months from now. Attali said that
"only Sarkozy is spared this arrogance in his camp." Indeed,
Attali underlined, Sarkozy is "worried" that victory could
slip away from him because "it's not good when you're ahead
too soon." In addition, any "collapse" of Royal's candidacy
would expose him to a united left and center behind the
candidacy of centrist Francois Bayrou, head of the Union for
French Democracy (UDF) party. (Note: In polls taken February
14 - 15, current first-round support for Bayrou came in in

PARIS 00000654 002 OF 002


the low teens, double the 6 percent of the vote he took in
the first round of the 2002 election. End Note).


5. (C) Sarkozy, according to Attali, also runs the risk of
an unforeseen media event upsetting his candidacy,
particularly if that incident is security related, and he is
still at the helm of the Ministry of the Interior. Attali
said that Sarkozy's entire campaign team "is asking him to
leave" the Interior Ministry, but that Sarkozy's wife and
(and key political advisor) Cecilia Sarkozy is "is pushing
him to stay." Attali confirmed what is an open secret in
Parisian political circles, that Sarkozy's wife, who is "very
attached to the trappings of power," does not want to move
from the palatial apartments that are the official residence
of the Minister of Interior, except to move across the street
to the Elysee Palace. (Note: Sarkozy has repeatedly
postponed his departure from the government, which had been
expected for mid-January, around the time of his official
designation as the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party's
candidate for president. End Note.)

CHIRAC -- "AS IF HE'D BE THERE FOREVER"
--------------

6. (C) Attali recalled that he had known President Chirac
"since he was my brother's tutor" when Chirac was still a
university student. Attali said that, based on his recent
conversations with the President, Chirac gives the impression
"that he thinks as if he would be in office forever," and
only recently had begun thinking of "following the American
example" and dedicating himself to "his library or
foundation," or to some special role promoting development
once he leaves office. Attali also said that Chirac "had
become more human" of late, revealing much more warmth and
humor in social settings than was the wont of the "intense
political animal" of his decades in high office.

COMMENT
--------------

7. (C) Attali's views provide a good snapshot of how things
stand in France's presidential race almost exactly two months
before the first round of the election (April 22). Attali
used the phrase "change and generational renewal" to
encapsulate the significance of the upcoming election and its
two, baby-boomer principal candidates. Nearly all political
observers believe that -- if these two leading candidates,
Segolene Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy, make it to a second-round
run-off as expected -- that run-off (May 6) will be
exceedingly close. End Comment.
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm

STAPLETON