GHASSAN SALAME: LEBANON'S POLITICAL SYSTEM IS

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 000613

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR MARCHESE/DORAN/ABRAMS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/15/2017
TAGS: FR LE PGOV PREL SY
SUBJECT: GHASSAN SALAME: LEBANON'S POLITICAL SYSTEM IS
BROKEN


CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR JOSIAH ROSENBLATT,
REASONS



PAGE 02 RUEHFRA0613 C O N F I D E N T I A L
1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: FORMER LEBANESE CULTURE MINISTER GHASSAN
SALAME SHARED WITH US ON FEBRUARY 14 A BLEAK ASSESSMENT OF
LEBANON'S POLITICAL SITUATION. SALAME SAID LEBANON'S
POLITICAL SYSTEM WAS BROKEN, THAT BOTH SIDES WERE LOSING IN
THE CURRENT CRISIS, THAT SYRIA WAS THE ROOT OF THE PROBLEM,
AND THAT WHILE NEITHER IRAN NOR HIZBALLAH WANTED VIOLENCE AT
THE MOMENT, THEY WOULD ACCEPT VIOLENCE BEFORE BREAKING RANKS
WITH DAMASCUS. SALAME STRESSED THAT THE IRANIAN LEADERSHIP
CONSULTS HIZBALLAH'S SHEIKH HASSAN NASRALLAH ON ALL ARAB
QUESTIONS, NOT JUST THOSE INVOLVING LEBANON. (NOTE: WE DEFER
TO OUR COLLEAGUES AT EMBASSIES BEIRUT AND DAMASCUS TO JUDGE
THE ACCURACY OF SALAME'S ANALYSIS, WHICH WE SIMPLY CONVEY
HERE GIVEN SALAME'S STANDING AS A FORMER MINISTER WHO REMAINS
AN INFORMED OBSERVER OF THE LEBANON SCENE.) END SUMMARY.

THE SYSTEM IS BROKEN
--------------




PAGE 03 RUEHFRA0613 C O N F I D E N T I A L

2. (C) OVER LUNCH ON FEBRUARY 14 AT HIS PARISIAN RESIDENCE,
GHASSAN SALAME (FORMER LEBANESE MINISTER OF CULTURE) TOLD
POLOFF THAT LEBANON'S FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM WAS A BROKEN
POLITICAL SYSTEM. "IT'S BROKEN, ARCHAIC, CORRUPT,
CONFESSIONAL, AND STUCK IN THE 19TH CENTURY -- IT PRODUCES
NOTHING BUT CRISES," REMARKED SALAME, WHO SAID HE LEFT
LEBANON IN 2003 AFTER REALIZING THAT BOTH HIS POLITICAL
ALLIES AND ENEMIES WERE HOPELESSLY WEDDED TO THE SYSTEM
NONETHELESS.


3. (C) SALAME SUMMED UP LEBANON'S CURRENT POLITICAL CRISIS BY
SAYING: "BOTH SIDES ARE LOSING, OR RATHER, THE OPPOSITION IS
LOSING AND THE GOVERNMENT ISN'T WINNING." HE SAW NO HOPE OF
A NEAR-TERM SOLUTION, AND SAW PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER NABIH
BERRI AND ARAB LEAGUE SYG AMR MOUSSA AS EQUALLY INEFFECTUAL,
SAYING THE TWO HAD "NO CARROTS, AND NO STICKS."

THE PROBLEM IS SYRIA
--------------




PAGE 04 RUEHFRA0613 C O N F I D E N T I A L

4. (C) THE PROBLEM, SALAME CONTINUED, IS THAT SYRIA IS
BLOCKING ANY MOVEMENT TOWARDS A SETTLEMENT. THE ASAD REGIME
MISPLAYED ITS CARDS IN THE AFTERMATH OF RAFIK HARIRI'S
ASSASSINATION, AND IS NOW PAYING FOR ITS MISTAKES BY TRYING
TO SPIKE THE CREATION OF THE SPECIAL TRIBUNAL AT ANY COST --
ALTHOUGH IT TRIES TO MASK ITS INTENT BEHIND SEEMINGLY
UNRELATED DEMANDS SUCH AS EXPANSION OF THE CURRENT CABINET.
"I TOLD FOUAD (SINIORA) THAT THE TALK ABOUT CABINET EXPANSION
IS ALL B.S., AND HE AGREED," SAID SALAME, WHO INDICATED THAT
SYRIA'S ONLY INTEREST IN SEEING THE OPPOSITION ACHIEVE A
BLOCKING MINORITY IN THE CABINET WAS SO THAT IT COULD THEN
FREEZE THE TRIBUNAL.

THE SPECIAL TRIBUNAL
--------------


5. (C) SURPRISINGLY, SALAME ADMITTED THAT HE WAS NEVER AN
ADVOCATE OF THE TRIBUNAL (HE HINTED THAT HE WOULD HAVE
SUPPORTED A QUICKER, PUNITIVE RESPONSE). HE RECOUNTED HOW,
UPON HEARING THE NEWS OF RAFIK HARIRI'S ASSASSINATION TWO



PAGE 05 RUEHFRA0613 C O N F I D E N T I A L
YEARS AGO, HE IMMEDIATELY RUSHED TO HARIRI'S PARIS HOME WHERE
HE FOUND PRESIDENT AND MRS. CHIRAC ALREADY PAYING THEIR
RESPECTS TO HARIRI'S WIDOW (INDEED, MRS. CHIRAC WAS UPSTAIRS
HELPING MADAME HARIRI PACK FOR HER FLIGHT TO LEBANON AND HER
HUSBANDS FUNERAL). "WHAT WILL YOU DO?" SALAME ASKED CHIRAC.
"TWO THINGS. FIRST I'LL CALL FOR AN INTERNATIONAL
INVESTIGATION, AND THEN WE WILL SET UP AN INTERNATIONAL
TRIBUNAL," CHIRAC REPLIED. SALAME ASKED CHIRAC HOW LONG IT
WOULD TAKE TO DO ALL OF THAT. "ABOUT THREE WEEKS," CHIRAC
ESTIMATED.


6. (C) "SO HERE WE ARE TWO YEARS LATER WITH NO TRIBUNAL,"
SAID SALAME, SHAKING HIS HEAD RUEFULLY. NEVERTHELESS, SALAME
INSISTED THAT IT IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER THAT THE
TRIBUNAL BE ESTABLISHED. "IF WE FAIL AFTER ALL THE TIME,
MONEY, AND EFFORT THAT WE HAVE POURED INTO CREATING THE
TRIBUNAL, IT WILL BE A SIGNAL TO REPRESSIVE STATES EVERYWHERE
THAT THEY CAN RESUME KILLING THEIR OPPONENTS WITH IMPUNITY,"
SALAME SAID, SUGGESTING ACIDLY THAT EGYPT AND LIBYA WOULD, IN
PARTICULAR, WELCOME SUCH A SIGNAL.



PAGE 06 RUEHFRA0613 C O N F I D E N T I A L


7. (C) ASKED WHETHER HE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE TO
ESTABLISH THE TRIBUNAL UNDER CHAPTER VII, SALAME SAID: "AS A
LEBANESE CITIZEN, MY REACTION IS YES, YOU SHOULD TRY
IMMEDIATELY. AS SOMEONE WHO KNOWS THE UN, MY PROFESSIONAL
ADVICE IS THAT YOU SHOULD NOT EVEN TRY -- IT WON'T WORK." IN


SALAME'S OPINION, THE RUSSIANS WOULD BLOCK ANY ATTEMPT TO



PAGE 02 RUEHFRA0613 C O N F I D E N T I A L
INVOKE CHAPTER VII.

HOW FAR WILL IRAN/HIZBALLAH GO?
--------------


8. (C) SALAME OPINED THAT NEITHER IRAN NOR HIZBALLAH WISHES
TO PROVOKE A LEBANESE CIVIL WAR AT THE MOMENT. IRAN
RECOGNIZES THAT SUNNI-SHIITE RELATIONS ARE RAW, AND IS
ANXIOUS TO PRESERVE SOME DEGREE OF MUSLIM SOLIDARITY AS
INSURANCE AGAINST ANY PRE-EMPTIVE U.S. OR ISRAELI ATTACK ON
ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM. BY THE SAME TOKEN, HIZBALLAH LEADER
SHEIKH HASSAN NASRALLAH RECOGNIZES THAT HIS POPULARITY (AND
HIZBALLAHS) IN THE ARAB WORLD IS EQG AND IS ALREADY FAR
LOWER THAN IT WAS IN THE IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH OF THE SUMMER
2006 CONFLICT WITH ISRAEL. SALAME ADDED THAT BOTH IRAN AND
HIZBALLAH ARE PREPARED TO BE PATIENT IN PURSUING THEIR
LONG-TERM AIM OF REVISING THE TAIF ACCORDS SO AS TO FURTHER
STRENGTHEN THE STANDING OF LEBANON'S SHI'A COMMUNITY. (TO
ILLUSTRATE, SALAME RECOUNTED A CONVERSATION HE HAD SOME YEARS
AGO WITH AYATOLLAH VELAYATI, WHO GAVE SALAME A LONG LECTURE

PAGE 03 RUEHFRA0613 C O N F I D E N T I A L
ON LEBANESE HISTORY. IN VELAYATI'S DISTORTED VERSION OF
EVENTS, THE LEBANESE CIVIL WAR WAS REDUCED TO A
CHRISTIAN-MUSLIM CONFLICT IN WHICH THE "GOOD MUSLIMS," I.E.
THE SHIITES, TRIUMPHED OVER THE CHRISTIANS, ONLY TO HAVE MOST
OF THEIR GAINS STOLEN BY THE "BAD MUSLIMS," I.E. THE SUNNIS,
AT TAIF WITH SAUDI CONNIVANCE.)


9. (C) THE BOTTOM LINE, SAID SALAME, IS THAT WHILE TEHRAN
DOES NOT WANT ARMED CONFLICT IN LEBANON AT THE MOMENT, IT
WILL NOT RUPTURE ITS ALLIANCE WITH DAMASCUS IN ORDER TO
MAINTAIN PEACE. "THE IRAN-SYRIA AXIS IS THE MOST SUCCESSFUL
ALLIANCE TO APPEAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST IN THE PAST 25 YEARS,"
SAID SALAME.

NASRALLAH'S ROLE TRANSCENDS LEBANON
--------------


10. (C) TURNING THE CONVERSATION TOWARD HIZBALLAH'S
RELATIONSHIP WITH IRAN, SALAME TOOK ISSUE WITH THOSE WHO
DESCRIBE HIZBALLAH AS EITHER AN IDIGENOUS LEBANESE MOVEMENT


PAGE 04 RUEHFRA0613 C O N F I D E N T I A L
OR AS AN IRANIAN INSTRUMENT, SAYING THE ORGANIZATION SHOULD

INSTEAD BE SEEN AS AN INTEGRAL PART OF IRAN. "HIZBALLAH IS
THE LEGITIMATE OFFSPRING OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION," SAID
SALAMEH, WHO OBSERVED THAT HIS INTERLOCUTORS IN TEHRAN WAX
POETIC WHENEVER DISCUSSING NASRALLAH. DESCRIBING NASRALLAH
AS "ONE OF THE SMARTEST MEN I'VE EVER MET," SALAME EMPHASIZED
("I KNOW THIS FOR A FACT") THAT NASRALLAH IS AN ACTIVE
PARTICIPANT IN THE IRANIAN REGIME'S INTERNAL DISCUSSIONS OF
ALL QUESTIONS INVOLVING THE ARAB WORLD. "THEY DON'T JUST
CONSULT HIM ON LEBANON, THEY TALK WITH HIM ABOUT EVERYTHING,
ESPECIALLY IRAQ. AND HE DOESNT WAIT TO BE CONSULTED, HE
ACTIVELY VOLUNTEERS HIS VIEWS," SAID SALAMEH.


11. (C) THE IRANIANS, HE CONTINUED, ARE ECSTATIC ABOUT HOW
THEIR LONG-TERM INVESTMENT (WHICH SALAME BELIEVES MUST TOTAL
TO MORE THAN $10 BILLION DOLLARS) IN NASRALLAH/HIZBALLAH HAS
ALREADY PAID OFF BEYOND THEIR EXPECTATIONS. NASRALLAH'S
PRIMARY SUCCESS HAS BEEN IN BUILDING BRIDGES TO ARMED SUNNI
GROUPS. "HE WON PALESTINIAN ISLAMIC JIHAD OVER IN THE SPACE
OF A FEW WEEKS, THEN HE WENT HEAD TO HEAD WITH THE SAUDIS FOR



PAGE 05 RUEHFRA0613 C O N F I D E N T I A L
CONTROL OF HAMAS AND HE WON THERE AS WELL. PLUS HE HAS
ESTABLISHED TIES WITH SUNNI INSURGENTS IN IRAQ," SAID SALAME,
WHO SAW NASRALLAH'S SECONDARY ROLE AS SECURING A SHIITE
BRIDGEHEAD IN THE LEVANT IN PREPARATION FOR IRANIAN
DOMINATION OF THE REGION.

BERRI: LOST HIS MUSCLE
--------------


12. (C) SALAME SAID THERE ARE TWO SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT ON
PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER NABIH BERRI. THE FIRST SCHOOL SEES HIM
AS A SYRIAN PUPPET, WHEREAS THE SECOND MAINTAINS THAT BERRI
SECRETLY DISAGREES WITH MUCH OF THE OPPOSITION'S AGENDA AND

SIPDIS
WOULD BE HELPFUL TO THE MARCH 14 MAJORITY IF HE COULD BE, BUT
THAT HE FEARS FOR HIS LIFE. "PERSONALLY, I'VE ALWAYS THOUGHT
BERRI WAS JUST A THUG," SAID SALAME. BERRI'S PROBLEM, SALAME
CONTINUED, IS THAT HIS MOST LOYAL AMAL SUPPORTERS ARE NO
LONGER THE HARDENED MILITANTS THEY ONCE WERE DURING THE
LEBANESE CIVIL WAR. THEY HAVE AGED, AND MANY ARE NOW
BUSINESSMEN OR BANKERS. "HES LOST HIS MUSCLE," SAID



PAGE 06 RUEHFRA0613 C O N F I D E N T I A L
SALAMEH, WHO ASSESSED THAT BERRI NOW DERIVES MOST OF HIS
INFLUENCE FROM HIS OFFICIAL POSITION RATHER THAN FROM HIS
POLITICAL BASE. MOREOVER, BERRI'S RELATIONSHIP WITH DAMASCUS
IS TROUBLED. "HE (BERRI) KNOWS THAT BASHAR DOESN'T
PARTICULARLY LIKE HIM, AND EVEN THOUGHT ABOUT HAVING HIM AND
WALID (JUMBLATT) KILLED AT THE SAME TIME HE HAD RAFIK


KILLED," SAID SALAMEH.



PAGE 02 RUEHFRA0613 C O N F I D E N T I A L




PLEASE VISIT PARIS' CLASSIFIED WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.STATE.SGOV.GOV/P/EUR/PARIS/INDEX.C FM

STAPLETON