YOUR OCTOBER 31 VISIT TO PARIS

UNCLAS PARIS 004362 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR U/S BURNS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL NATO MOPS MARR PARM FR IR IZ AF SR SUBJECT: YOUR OCTOBER 31 VISIT TO PARIS REF: PARIS 4357 (SCENESETTER FOR SARKOZY VISIT TO THE U.S.) ¶1. (U) This message is Sensitive But Unclassified - not for internet distribution. ¶2. (SBU) Introduction and Summary: Your visit comes close to six months into Nicolas Sarkozy's five-year term. Sarkozy has made effective use of his policy of inclusiveness ("ouverture"),bringing in leading figures of the opposition, including the Socialist Party (such as Foreign Minister Kouchner),the non-Gaullist center-right, and civil society. In addition, he shattered the white-male cast of previous French governments with his appointments of women and minorities to key ministries. However, the team,s cohesiveness has suffered of late from public displays of tension between the "hyperactive" president and several members of his cabinet (including the Prime Minister). With the opposition Socialist Party demoralized, and being in full control of all the levers of power, beginning with the Presidency, the Parliament, and the majority party, Sarkozy dominates the politics of France. He has been assertive in pushing an ambitious program of reform aimed at revitilizing the country and liberating its economic potential. While still enjoying substantial popular support (above 60% in most polls),a difficult international economic environment and France's budgetary constraints are restricting his room to maneuver and a nationwide strike on October 18-19 provided the first political challenge to Sarkozy and his team. 3.(SBU) On the foreign policy front, Sarkozy is intent on reasserting French leadership in Europe and in making his mark on the international scene. He has moved to improve his relations with the U.S., breaking with Chirac's emphasis on multi-polarity. We have seen a dramatic shift in French policy on Iraq, public debate over a possible French "return" to the integrated military command of NATO, a toughened approach to Iran and Russia, and a promised new attitude toward Africa. Sarkozy and Kouchner assign priority also to Kosovo, Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Darfur, as well as to climate change. Despite convergence with the U.S. on key issues, Sarkozy has repeatedly emphasized that being "allies" does not mean accross-the-board and automatic "alignment" with U.S. positions. He has not hesitated to identify specific areas of disagreement with the U.S., including 
admission of Turkey into the EU, climate change and GMOs. This message reviews the state of play in a number of issues that may come up in the context of your visit. End Summary. ¶4. (SBU) In addition to Iran, NATO, Kosovo and Afghanistan, the main topics of your meetings with French officials are addressed below, along with brief summaries of French thinking on other important GOF priorites: Iraq, Russia/Georgia, France-EU relations, Lebanon, Darfur and climate change. ¶5. (SBU) IRAN: Both President Sarkozy and FM Kouchner have gone on record with public comments about the "unacceptability" of a nuclear-armed Iran and the need to maintain maximum pressure on the Iranian regime. France has recently taken the lead on this issue within the EU, with FM Kouchner circulating a letter to the EU foreign ministers to advocate strengthening European sanctions should the UNSC be unable to act. At the same time, French officials emphasize that Paris maintains a "normal" diplomatic relationship with Teheran despite sharp disagreements on the nuclear question. The recent visit of Israeli PM Olmert to Paris gave Israel an opportunity to bolster France,s tough line. In your meetings, your counterparts will be interested in your evaluation of the ability of the international community to influence Iranian choices and how best to maintain international pressure toward that end. ¶6. (SBU) NATO: In one of his first acts as President, Sarkozy launched a defense "white paper" commission to review France,s defense and security priorities (the first since 1994). One component of the report (expected in March 2008) is a review of France,s relationship with NATO. The defense white paper could set the stage for a possible re-integration back into the NATO military command (from which the French military withdrew in 1966). President Sarkozy and Defense Minister Morin launched the public debate over a deeper French role in the Alliance in September in two major foreign policy speeches. Sarkozy later clarified the two conditions for a France rapprochement to NATO in a September 24 interview in the New York Times: 1) strengthening European defense structures by developing Europe,s own capabilities to plan and carry out defense and security operations; and 2) seeking French representation in the highest "decision making posts of NATO". Editorials and informal newspaper polls have demonstrated that there already exists a degree of public support in re-joining NATO, despite the long-standing French policy of independence that has been supported across the political spectrum. Those opposed frequently raise the previous 1996 failure to reach agreement on the modalities for a French return or raise concerns that fully joining NATO will merely mean placing French military personnel under American control. Thus far, public commentary has been fairly reasoned and many experts point to France,s already significant role in the alliance (France is the 5th largest contributor to NATO in terms of budget and troops). Your visit offers an opportunity to hear from the French where they are in their own policy review and identify the common ground for moving forward the dialogue with France on NATO and European defense. ¶7. (SBU) KOSOVO: A French general recently took over the command of KFOR troops in Kosovo and the civilian French leadership is actively seeking EU consensus on a common European approach to the issue of Kosovo,s final status. Many European countries are considering the legal basis to maintain troop deployments and continue with planning for an ESDP mission in Kosovo in the event of a unilateral declaration of independence. The French are eager to work closely with the U.S. and the Contact Group on post-December 10 actions. They are hoping that combined European and U.S. efforts will convince the Kosovars that it is in their best interest to be patient. The French want to avoid any deterioration of the security situation on the ground in Kosovo, focusing particular on the protection of minorities in the days and weeks to come. ¶8. (SBU) AFGHANISTAN: In the first major foreign policy speech of his presidency, Sarkozy highlighted the importance of French efforts in Afghanistan, primarily in training the Afghan National Army. To this end, France recently stepped up military commitments by adding three additional Operational Mentoring and Liaison Teams (OMLTs) and just announced this week that it would be sending an additional OMLT to assist the Dutch in southern Afghanistan. France participates in both Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and the NATO ISAF mission and its troops are deployed largely in and around Kabul. France has taken other decisions to bolster its presence in Afghanistan including moving six French Mirage planes from Dushanbe to Kandahar in September and the September 10 pledge by the French and German heads of state to support the German-led EU police training mission in Afghanistan (despite delays in getting the mission up and running). We should use the opportunity of your visit to persuade the French to broaden and deepen their efforts in Afghanistan. French interlocutors may repeat calls for a more coherent political and military strategy in Afghanistan that would integrate military support and civilian reconstruction and include a timeline for shifting the burden from the international coalition to the Government of Afghanistan. ¶9. (SBU) RUSSIA: French President Sarkozy recently made his first presidential visit to Russia on October 9-10. The two leaders discussed a broad range of topics including Iran, missile defense, Georgia and Kosovo. The visit to Moscow highlighted a major difference in substance and style from Franco-Russian relations in the Chirac era. Sarkozy did not shy away from directly addressing difficult issues, including democracy and rule of law problems in Russia, Chechnya and energy policies. He also took the unprecedented step (for a French President) of visiting human rights activists while in Moscow. Despite the re-calibration in the relationship, energy security issues and trade remain as priorities. The French remind us of Russia's relative proximity and France's and Europe's need to deal pragmatically with a newly assertive Russia. ¶10. (SBU) GEORGIA: The Georgian press spokesman recently reported that President Sarkozy told Georgian President Saakashvili that he supports MAP for Georgia, but the GOF has not confirmed this to us statement. As a general rule, the French maintain that NATO membership should not create new lines of division and that territorial conflicts should be resolved prior to membership. France is considering whether NATO could offer Georgia a different kind of status and a different approach to regional security, possibly combined with incentives. ¶11. (SBU) IRAQ: FM Koucher,s three-day visit to Iraq in August launched new dialogue on French engagement in Iraq reconstruction efforts, particularly to relieve what they see as a harsh humanitarian situation. Since then, the GOF has hosted President Talibani and FM Zebari and they remain interested in engaging with local Iraqi officials. The renewed GOF engagement does not include any commitment of French troops in Iraq, but Kouchner has pressed the EU to become more active in multinational efforts at reconstruction (which France would like the UN to head up). Significantly, Kouchner plans to attend the upcoming ministerial meeting in Istanbul of Iraq,s "neighbors". We should encourage the French to move ahead to implement humanitarian and reconstruction programs in Iraq. ¶12. (SBU) LEBANON: FM Kouchner has been closely associated with efforts to help Lebanon elect a new president and emerge from its present political crisis. He recently completed a trip of EU Foreign Ministers to Lebanon (which included the Foreign Ministers of Spain and Italy as well) and will likely return there after his visit to Washington. In addition, President Sarkozy authorized announcement of France,s tranche of more than $6 million for the Special Tribunal, which France had been withholding pending a formal request for contributions by the UN Secretary-General. Our close consultations with the French over Lebanon continue, although we differ over tactics and the risks associated with election of a president via simple majority. The French emphasize the importance of finding a "consensus" candidate acceptable to all. ¶13. (SBU) Climate Change: On his election day, Sarkozy called for a greater U.S leadership role on climate issues. He has created a mega, environment ministry incorporating energy and transportation headed by the third-highest ranking Minister in the French Government. This super ministry has conducted a broad based review of environmental issues with business, NGOs, academics, and foreign experts in a process called The Grenelle for the Environment." After the President,s Major Economies Meeting (MEM) in late September in Washington, French officials offered to host the next meeting while expressing some disappointment with both the lack of agreement on a post-Kyoto emissions goal and U.S. reluctance regarding market-based cap and trade measures. Areas of potential conflict include concerns that a failure for a broad adoption of similar carbon reduction schemes will put European industry at a competitive disadvantage and the possible French advocacy of a European imposed carbon tax on imported goods. The French also criticize what they see as U.S. over-reliance on yet-to-be-developed technologies (carbon capture and storage, second generation bio-fuels, and advanced nuclear) to address emissions. France is skeptical that China and India and other major emerging economies will take steps to reduce emissions unless the U.S. moves first. ¶14. (C) FRANCE-EU: President Sarkozy was instrumental in re-activating the moribund political reform process in the European Union with the June negotiation for a shortened "reform treaty" that will simplify some of the EU,s operating procedures, while side-stepping efforts of deepened political integration that doomed the EU constitution in ¶2005. This "reform treaty" was approved by EU leaders in Lisbon last week and is scheduled to be signed in December with ratification over the course of 2008. Sarkozy has said publicly he wants France to be the first country to ratify the simplified treaty; the process of parliamentary ratification will begin in December. The French will also take over the rotating EU presidency from July-December 2008 and plan to focus on immigration, energy, the environment and European defense during their term. While Sarkozy remains firmly opposed to EU enlargement to include Turkey, he has effectively sidestepped this issue by supporting continued negotiations on the acquis communautaire that do not pre-suppose membership. He also conditioned his position on EU support for a "Committee of Wise Men" to reflect "without taboos" on the broader questions about the European future: ie, what is the European identity, what should the EU,s borders be, how to handle common issues, and how deep can political integration go. ¶15. (SBU) DARFUR (and Chad, Central African Republic): Sarkozy demonstrated an immediate renewed interest in Africa upon entering office, with France calling for and organizing the June 25 ministerial conference on Darfur, which served to refocus international attention on that country. The French followed up with a ministerial meeting on Darfur on the margins of the UNGA in New York in September and then hosted a broader Security Council session on Africa for heads-of-state/government. France has been instrumental in organizing a separate Security Council-blessed EU-UN peacekeeping mission in Chad and the Central African Republic (MINURCAT). Paris hopes to deploy this force as soon as practicable. In addition, the French have firmly supported the deployment of the hybrid UN-AU force in Darfur (UNAMID). French Presidency officials have indicated that the GOF is reviewing overall policy towards Africa, with a possible new approach to be announced within the coming months Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm Stapleton