FRENCH NEXT STEPS ON LEBANON

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 004358

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/YERGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM FR LE SY IR
SUBJECT: FRENCH NEXT STEPS ON LEBANON

REF: A. (A) BEIRUT 1665


B. (B) PARIS 4313

C. AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for rea
sons 1.4. (b),(d).


1. (C) In an unfortunately abbreviated meeting, French MFA
DAS-equivalent for the Levant Ludovic Pouille gave us a quick
update October 25 on how the French intend to move forward on
Lebanon over the next couple of weeks.

--FM Kouchner intends to continue his process of pressing the
Lebanese parties to identify and elect a compromise
president. With the next deadline in mind, i.e., the
parliamentary session now set for November 12, Kouchner plans
to return to Beirut o/a November 10 with his Italian and
Spanish counterparts once more in tow and joined by the Saudi
and Egyptian FMs as well as Arab League Secretary General Amr
Musa. Beirut would be the only stop with no side trips to
Damascus or anywhere else.

--French special envoy for Lebanon Jean-Claude Cousseran will
depart for Jeddah October 26 to meet Saudi FM Sa,ud
al-Faisal the next day. Cousseran would travel the evening
of October 27 for Damascus for meetings with FM Mu,allim and
VP Shara, October 28. Pouille initially added that
Cousseran would go on to Tehran, but he stated October 26
that Iran was no longer on Cousseran,s itinerary (see
comment for more information). Without offering an
explanation, Pouille agreed with our observation that Cairo
was not part of Cousseran,s swing this time around.

--Kouchner plans to meet on the margins with Syrian FM
Mu,allim at the Istanbul ministerial on Iraq in early
November. After reporting October 26 that Cousseran would no
longer be going to Tehran, Pouille said that Kouchner will
also meet Iranian FM Motakki in Istanbul.


2. (C) Time did not permit Pouille to provide details on
the message Cousseran would convey to the Syrians. He
nonetheless gave the impression it would be focused entirely
on Lebanon and repeat what the French have previously stated
by way of warning the Syrians not to interfere in the
Lebanese election process and offering a renewed bilateral
dialogue should the election pass peacefully.


3. (C) Comment: As previously reported, the French are
increasingly worried as the clock ticks down and no clear
frontrunner has emerged among Lebanese presidential
candidates. The question of Cousseran going to Tehran seems
to have gotten tangled up in the now difficult French
relationship with Iran due to its tough stance on the nuclear
issue (septel). Pouille asserted that Cousseran would go to
Tehran October 25 with complete confidence that the decision
had been taken and the visit would proceed. When we raised
this visit later in the day with Franck Gellet, Pouille,s
colleague handling Iran, Iraq, and the Gulf states, Gellet
noted that he understood the decision was still pending and
likely to be negative. Kouchner or his staff seems to have
decided that whatever Lebanon-related business Cousseran
would have transacted with the Iranians can best be done in
Istanbul along with other issues troubling the strained
bilateral relationship. As a last note, we pass along that
Pouille was dismissive of a &half-plus-plus8 approach to
the Lebanese election. A scenario that would effectively
exclude Hizballah from the vote, and thus not lead to a
&consensus8 candidate was not something France could
support.


Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm


Stapleton