French Elections and the Politics of Globalization

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 000412 SIPDIS CONFIDENTIAL SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EB/TPP, AND OES/GCO STATE PASS TO USTR FOR JVERONEAU, SDONNELLY, JSANFORD, MMOWREY, JMURPHY USDOC FOR JLEVIN USDA/OS/JOHANNS/TERPSTRA USDA/FAS FOR OA/YOST E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2016 TAGS: ECON ETRD PGOV PREL SENV WTO FR SUBJECT: French Elections and the Politics of Globalization REF: A/ 06 Paris 7584 B/ 06 LONDON 8229 Classified by Econ M/C Thomas J. White, reasons 1.4 (b),(d) and (e). ¶1. (C) Summary: With French elections ahead in spring 2007, issues associated with globalization risk becoming increasingly politicized. On international trade and domestic reform issues, we will see both the left and the right try to out-protectionist the other in defense of French values and traditions (read farmers),against the threat of Anglo-Saxon liberalism and American-led globalization. The debate on these issues during the campaign could have significant consequences for France's economic partners. In the run-up to France's April/May elections, we should not shy away from pushing forward our liberalization and development objectives, but we also should not expect free market logic from France's competing politicians. Our arguments linking open markets, trade and economic growth/development will have the most resonance in this politically-charged season. End Summary. Populism and Trade -------------- ¶2. (C) Despite the reality that over 60 percent of French GDP is tied to foreign trade and investment, there exists a strong current of popular sentiment which continues to oppose globalization, seeing it as a threat to the traditional (now almost mythical) French way of life. This populism takes many forms, from Jose Bove ripping up fields of biotech corn, to measures to limit the number of American films in the cinemas, to attempts to carve out exceptions from international rules under the guise of cultural diversity. Nascent GOF efforts to improve the French public's economic literacy have yet to pay dividends on attitudes towards international trade. Business groups, such as MEDEF, have taken a relatively low profile on trade and related issues. French diplomats frequently seek to enforce tight negotiating mandates that frustrate any effort of the European Commission to go beyond what has been agreed to by Paris - particularly with respect to trade. ¶3. (C) The conundrum for France and its partners is that this populist stance, which is catered to by all parts of the political spectrum, results oftentimes in efforts to reject, delay or otherwise stymie the trade liberalization from which France's trade-dependent economy clearly benefits. This dynamic is not uniquely French. But France's political elite has sought over the years to develop a framework to explain and defend this contradiction, rather than explain the benefits of freer trade and open markets, As a result France is often at the forefront - irritatingly so - in high-profile efforts to wrap what are largely protectionist policies in the guise of an alternative to the perceived crassness of the American model and the negative impact of globalization. Economic Patriotism -------------- ¶4. (C) Prime Minister de Villepin has personally identified himself with the notion of French "economic patriotism," a concept that roughly translates into defending a few select sectors and national "champions," large, usually previously, partially or wholly state-owned firms (think Airbus, Areva, EDF, etc,) that play a leading role in France's economy. The French government remains determined to do all that it can do to assist such companies globally, even when such assistance contravenes EU directives on competition. It is equally ready to play a role in fending off foreign take-over efforts in such "sensitive" sectors. France's blocking of the proposed Suez-ENEL merger, Mittal's bid to absorb Arcelor, and the rejection of a falsely-rumored takeover of Danone by Pepsi are recent examples. ¶5. (C) Dominique Moisi, senior advisor at France's Institute for International Relations, in a 2006 Financial Times article, noted that, in the past, governments blamed Brussels for unpopular but necessary reforms. Today, France continues to bash Brussels but seemingly prefers to use patriotic logic to try to thwart EU or international objectives and commitments. In other words, France will willingly stand up to and pointedly criticize the EC (or the U.S.) and articulate its "principled" position, but will not necessarily fully apply these same PARIS 00000412 002 OF 003 principles in Paris. Trade and the Environment -------------- ¶6. (C) Reftels provide a more elaborated review of the emerging nexus of trade and environmental issues which are likely to be the focus of future irritants in the U.S.-EU relationship. French PM de Villepin recently broached the idea of a carbon tax for goods from countries not party to Kyoto-like mandatory gas emission controls in the post-2012 period. In late January 2007, France hosted the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. President Chirac reiterated France's support February 1 for a new United Nations Environment Organization and warned that a carbon tax on non-Kyoto signatories (e.g. the U.S) "was inevitable" if they did not join the Kyoto process. Emission and congestion taxes for transport are also being considered in France and elsewhere in Europe. That the UK is placing increasing emphasis on the environmental dimension of public policies is likely to encourage French steps in this direction. A race to see who is more "green" than the other could lead to real and new difficulties for U.S. business as France and its partners look for creative ways to use protective measures to mitigate the impact on domestic industry. We agree with Embassy LONDON (ref B) that the nexus of these issues has the potential to put new strains on political and economic relationships and significantly test the institutions that govern trade and investment flows. Agriculture and Trade -------------- ¶7. (C) While environment and trade may be an emerging concern, agriculture remains the fundamental issue for the French. Despite the fact that agriculture accounts for less than two percent of GDP, France retains a self-image of a pastoral land of small villages and family farms. While Paris may be the center of the nation, the French continue to be exceptionally proud of their rural tradition. Thus, disputes over agricultural trade are more than just economic debates, as they involve French culture, history and pride (fear over an inability to compete with low-cost producers like Brazil also weighs heavily). Populist themes of anti-globalization and economic patriotism merge with concern over agriculture to create a political environment inimical to reform. Attempts to implement real change (such as acceptance of GMO crops for example),particularly if due to pressure from Brussels or elsewhere, are always difficult in France but are seen as particularly damaging if they affect the "excellence and uniqueness" of French agriculture and the "lifestyle" it embodies. Cultural Diversity -------------- ¶8. (C) The French attitude toward safeguarding French and Francophone identity and the importance of the protection of cultural diversity is well-documented. France was a leading proponent of the Cultural Diversity Convention at UNESCO. It has sought to place quotas on the quantity of English language-programming in France. It subsidizes efforts to broaden international recognition of the role of Francophonie. Such efforts are likely to continue to evolve in ways that blur the line between cultural and economic issues. The GOF has used the Francophonie to rally support to proposals ranging from data privacy, to trade in educational services. The French are avid consumers of American culture, but political support for measures pitched as protecting French culture cuts across party lines. Regardless of the outcome of the presidential election we do not expect this to change. L'Exception Francaise -------------- ¶10. (C) French officials often resort to the argument that there is a French exception - the idea that, at least for certain "sensitive" domains, special rules apply for France. But France also makes the case that it simply gives voice to opinions that others share. It claims support from 20 EU member states on refusing to go further on CAP reform, it sees vindication for its efforts on cultural diversity in the near unanimous adoption of the Cultural Diversity Convention. While presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy has spoken of a break with French exceptionalism, even a Sarkozy victory would be PARIS 00000412 003 OF 003 unlikely to result in a break on issues so wrapped up with the French identity. The politics of globalization will continue to loom large in France. The upcoming elections could give voice to what is already a strong populist sentiment that almost instinctively opposes the opening of markets. The GOF will feel pressure to keep the Trade Commissioner on a tight leash as efforts to restart the Doha Round move forward. Advancing the U.S. Agenda -------------- ¶11. (C) With respect to the wider debate on trade liberalization and related Doha objectives, the common wisdom is that the upcoming French elections means Doha is dead and no progress is possible. However, this epitaph may be premature. The debate on the pros and cons of globalization is certainly far from over. If we are effective in focusing opinion on the need for global economic development, then there may still be some life yet in the Doha process. Highlighting U.S. willingness to move forward on a development round that balances benefits and effective advocacy on the importance of the 2007 U.S. Farm Bill and renewal of Trade Promotion Authority could help to refocus attention on the need for substantial changes to EU agricultural policy, the need for better IPR protection and the importance of regulatory reform. France will not like it but the period up to its Presidential elections could be an opportune moment to engage with other European nations (building on German Chancellor Merkel's recent efforts for example) as well as with the Commission (pushing Mandelson) and key trading partners to do more to open global markets. STAPLETON