FRENCH MFA NEA A/S-EQUIVALENT ON LEBANON,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 003921

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM FR LE SY IR
SUBJECT: FRENCH MFA NEA A/S-EQUIVALENT ON LEBANON,
SEPTEMBER 17

REF: BEIRUT 1421 AND PREVIOUS

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Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reaso
ns 1.4. (b),(d).


1. (C) French MFA NEA A/S-Equivalent Jean Felix-Paganon
reviewed with Polmincouns September 17 FM Kouchner's visit to
Beirut during Kouchner's recent swing through the Levant. He
provided little detail and began the discussion of Lebanon as
a carryover from a preceding discussion of the peace process
(septel) and Syria's role in it. Felix-Paganon stressed that
Syrian conduct during the Lebanese presidential election
process will be critical to determining what France does next
with Damascus, including any serious French/Syrian
reengagement. The one exception would be a meeting between
Kouchner and Syrian FM Mu'allim in New York on the margins of
the UNGA. (Comment: An earlier variant of this meeting was
a reworking of the five-party demarche -- U.S., France, Saudi
Arabia, Egypt, Arab League -- Kouchner had once pushed. In
the newer version, Kouchner would consult the other parties
seriatim before a final "synthetic" meeting with Mu'allim in
which he would invoke the other four parties. End comment)


2. (C) Turning to Lebanon proper, Felix-Paganon said that
Berri pretended to be angry in his answer to March 14's
response to his recent overture; Berri well understood that
the majority's response was open and sincere. Felix-Paganon
called the histrionics a show meant for others in the March 8
coalition. The French see Berri as worried about preserving
his position, sandwiched as he is between Aoun and Hizballah,
and determined to exercise to the maximum his prerogatives as
parliament speaker. On the other side, Felix-Paganon
described the French perception of tensions between
hardliners against dialogue with March 8 and those taking a
more flexible line favoring discussion. The French are
convinced that active contacts are already well underway in
the run-up to the reconvening of parliament September 25.


3. (C) As described by Felix-Paganon, the way ahead now
consists of the parties groping toward a package deal,
focusing on all their equities )- not just the Presidency.
Especially given the post-Ta'if weakening of the Presidency,
the Prime Ministry and the balance in the Cabinet are also of
importance to both March 14 and March 8. That means there
are quid pro quos that can be worked as the parties negotiate
toward a formula involving the selection for the key offices
and achieving the right cabinet balance. Asked if
Felix-Paganon was saying he thought the paralysis had been
broken, with the parties moving into a new &package8
negotiation, Felix-Paganon hedged: this is where he would
like things to move, he clarified, but he was not yet
persuaded they actually would. He said he did not foresee
possible agreement on a candidate prior to September 25 )
largely because the implication of such an agreement was
Aoun's renunciation of his candidacy. He also doubted any
of March 14's candidates would quickly emerge as frontrunners
among what the French now call a process of achieving
"convergence" as opposed to "consensus." One problem
Felix-Paganon saw with March 14 was its apparent fixation on
keeping control of the government no less than imposing its
candidate on the presidency. As the debate over the identity
of the next president inevitably merges with that of the
composition of a new government, negotiations will become
more complicated and focused on reaching a package deal.
This will, according to Felix-Paganon, drag out the process
and in all likelihood take us up to November 24. September
25, therefore, has limited significance but its imminence has
started the bargaining among Lebanese in earnest.


4. (C) We asked whether the French thought Syria had been
behind Berri's latest initiatives. DAS-equivalent for the
Levant Ludovic Pouille responded that Berri was saying this
was the first truly "autonomous" decision he had ever taken
in his long political career. Felix-Paganon added that
France believes Berri made his decision on his own. Syria
has done nothing so far to contradict or challenge it, which
it could have done easily through public denunciation if
nothing else. He suggested that the announcement of
candidacies will draw Syria into the game as candidates --
any and all -- start to dispatch emissaries to Damascus.
Both Syria and Iran, in Felix-Paganon's analysis, seem
content for the moment to let things play out and show no
inclination to destabilize the situation in Lebanon.

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5. (C) We asked, for the record, if Cousseran planned to
visit Damascus or Tehran in the near future. Felix-Paganon
answered that there were no such plans for the time being.


6. (C) Comment: Significantly, and distinct from meetings
in Beirut and Washington, Felix-Paganon did not feel a need
to apologize for or clarify any divergence in terms of our
approach on Lebanon despite our having made clear to the MFA
our concerns. What was reassuring about Felix-Paganon's
rundown, if we may use that term, is that the French seem to
have slowed down or lengthened whatever time horizon they
imagined for a resolution of this crisis. This seems to be
allowing them to assess a bit more soberly the state of play
and alignment of forces, including the need to regard Berri
and his openings to the majority skeptically. French doubts
about March 14 persist, however, as do fears about the
situation sliding into chaos and violence.

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm


Stapleton