PARIS CLUB - JANUARY 2007 TOUR D'HORIZON AND MACEDONIA &

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 PARIS 000328 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EB/IFD/OMA TREASURY FOR DO/IDD AND OUSED/IMF SECDEF FOR USDP/DSAA PASS EXIM FOR CLAIMS -- EDELARIVA PASS USDA FOR CCC -- ALEUNG/DERICKSON/KCHADWICK PASS USAID FOR CLAIMS PASS DOD FOR DSCS -- PBERG E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EFIN ECON EAID XM XA XH XB XF FR SUBJECT: PARIS CLUB - JANUARY 2007 TOUR D'HORIZON AND MACEDONIA & SIERRA LEONE NEGOTIATIONS PARIS 00000328 001.2 OF 010 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) During the January 23-24 meeting of the Paris Club, creditors granted Sierra Leone completion point treatment under the enhanced HIPC initiative, cancelling 100 percent ($363 million) of Sierra Leone's bilateral debt to the Club. The United States wrote off $44 million in USDA concessional loans. Creditors also accepted Macedonia's offer to prepay its previously rescheduled debt. Macedonia plans to prepay about $36 million in Export-Import Bank claims. The Secretariat confirmed again that Argentina has not submitted a formal proposal to the Paris Club. Creditors remained in agreement that Argentina should immediately use its reserves ($33 billion) to clear its Paris Club arrears ($5.5 billion),though Germany - the largest creditor, accounting for over a quarter of the debt - expressed a willingness to consider "innovative" solutions. Russia announced a new policy to forgive 100 percent of debts owed by HIPC countries that reach completion point. Other countries on the agenda included Afghanistan, Angola, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Comoros, Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ecuador, The Gambia, Iraq, Jordan, Kenya, Lebanon, Pakistan, Sao Tome and Principe, Serbia Montenegro, and Tonga. -------------- AFGHANISTAN -------------- ¶2. (U) The U.S. reported it had signed its bilateral agreement with Afghanistan implementing the July 2006 Paris Club agreed minute. Germany said it had sent a draft bilateral agreement to Kabul and was waiting for a reply. Russia said it was working on a draft with Afghanistan's advisors and noted that, at the request of the Afghan authorities, it had agreed to implement the debt reduction option rather than the debt service reduction option (the agreed minute PARIS 00000328 002 OF 010 allows for both). Under the debt reduction option, Russia will cancel 67 percent of Afghanistan's consolidated non-ODA debt outright, rather than reschedule the debt at a concessional interest rate so as to achieve the same reduction in net present value (NPV) terms. The IMF also reported that it had developed a new methodology for estimating Afghanistan's services exports, an important element in assessing the country's debt sustainability before reaching HIPC Decision Point. -------------- ANGOLA -------------- ¶3. (U) Following a flurry of payments in recent weeks, Angola has cleared 97 percent of its $2.3 billion in arrears to the Paris Club, not including late interest. Some creditors (Belgium, Denmark, Switzerland) expressed annoyance at being underpaid while others have been overpaid. The Secretariat pointed out that this unequal treatment is likely a reflection of disorganization in Luanda rather than a deliberate policy to discriminate among creditors. The U.S. reported that Angola prepaid without notice the entire debt to USDA, apparently overpaying the outstanding balance by some $11 million. No other creditor reported receiving a similar overpayment. In a telephone conversation with the Secretariat, Finance Minister de Morais said he will ask the Paris Club to treat the $1.8 billion in late interest once Angola has an IMF program in place. The prospects for concluding such a program, however, remain unclear. In the meantime, the Secretariat will send a letter to the authorities commending them on clearing the bulk of their arrears, asking them to clear remaining arrears, and holding out the prospect of a Paris Club treatment of late interest once Angola has arranged an appropriate IMF program. -------------- ARGENTINA -------------- PARIS 00000328 003 OF 010 ¶4. (SBU) The Secretariat said it still has not received an official proposal from Argentina, despite numerous press reports to the contrary as well as an Argentine press release following January 23 meetings in Berlin with Germany's Minister of Economics and Planning. According to creditor data as of November 2006, Argentina owed the Paris Club $6.5 billion, consisting of $3.8 billion in arrears (excluding late interest),$2.1 billion in outstanding principal, and $0.7 billion in late interest. These figures do not include the $835 million Spanish loan granted in 2001, all of which is in arrears. Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden, expressed a willingness to consider innovative solutions if necessary to conclude a deal. Japan, the UK, Canada, and the U.S. countered that the Paris Club should remain firm in its position that Argentina must clear arrears immediately, especially considering the current level of Argentine reserves, which the IMF estimated to be close to $33 billion. Italy reiterated that Argentina needed to settle with holdout bondholders; Germany responded that the holdouts were a separate issue. Sweden and Denmark said the cover policy of their export credit agencies could not be dictated by the Paris Club - a possible indication that some creditors will resume export financing to Argentina even before arrears have been completely cleared. The Secretariat will continue to urge Argentina to make a realistic SIPDIS proposal to the Club. -------------- CAMBODIA -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Russia still has not concluded a bilateral agreement with Cambodia implementing the 1995 Paris Club agreed minute. Russia and Cambodia continue to disagree on what interest rate should apply to rescheduled post-cutoff date debt. Japan reported that Cambodia unexpectedly prepaid the entire balance ($4.2 million) of its previously rescheduled debt. As a result, Japan would not be affected by any future Paris Club treatment of Cambodia's debt as long as no post-cutoff date debt is treated. On the margins of the meeting, the U.S. reassured the Japanese delegation that the U.S. PARIS 00000328 004 OF 010 does not intend to promote use of a different cutoff date in a future Paris Club negotiation with Cambodia. The U.S. noted it was awaiting a response from the authorities to the draft bilateral agreement. The Secretariat will send a letter to Cambodia pointing out that unilateral prepayments violate Paris Club solidarity and urging Cambodia to normalize relations with its creditors. -------------- CAMEROON -------------- ¶6. (U) The Secretariat will send a letter to Cameroon granting its request to extend until June 30, 2007, the deadline for concluding bilateral agreements. The Secretariat will also urge the GOC to respond promptly to creditors in implementing the Cambodia's June 2006 Completion Point treatment. Thus far, only five creditors (Austria, Japan, Italy, Spain, and the U.S.) have concluded bilateral agreements. -------------- CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC -------------- ¶7. (U) The Secretariat will invite CAR to come to the Paris Club in April for negotiations, rather than in March as originally thought. CAR is eligible for a flow treatment on "Naples terms" (67 percent reduction of debt service on non-concessional loans, with a rescheduling of the remaining amounts; and rescheduling of upcoming installments on concessional loans). The postponement is due to a delay in the preparation of CAR's preliminary HIPC document, which the IMF now expects to present to its Executive Board in early March. -------------- COMOROS -------------- PARIS 00000328 005 OF 010 ¶8. (U) Comoros will be HIPC-eligible once it starts an IMF program. France and Italy are the only Paris Club creditors (The U.S. holds no debt.) Once a Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) is approved, possibly as early as March, France intends to invite Comoros together with its two principal non-Paris Club creditors, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, to the Paris Club for negotiations. Comoros stands to receive a flow treatment on "Naples terms." -------------- CONGO-BRAZZAVILLE -------------- ¶9. (U) The Secretariat will send a letter to the authorities notifying them that the third phase of the April 2006 Paris Club agreement, which topped up Congo-B's "Naples" treatment to "Cologne" terms (increasing to 90 percent the ratio of non-ODA debt service treated),will not enter into force. The third phase covers principal and interest payments falling due from October 2006 through September 2007 and is conditioned on completion of a fourth review of Congo-B's PRGF before January 31, 2007. The IMF said that, as a result of major fiscal slippages, it cannot recommend completion of the third review of the program, and that the authorities will need to establish a track record of at least six months on a Staff Monitored Program before a PRGF can resume. The U.S. will suspend interim HIPC relief in accordance with its HIPC policy. -------------- DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO -------------- ¶10. (U) The IMF said a new PRGF could be in place by the summer. In the best case scenario, the DRC could reach completion point as early as six months later, at the time of the first review of the program. The Secretariat will send a letter to the DRC authorities stating that the consolidation period of the current agreement PARIS 00000328 006 OF 010 cannot be extended in the absence of a PRGF and will respond to a letter from the DRC's debt management office asking for information about 2007 debt service to Paris Club creditors. The Secretariat also said it will soon ask creditors for data on DRC debt since the country has reported great difficulties in knowing what debt is owed to the Club. -------------- ECUADOR -------------- ¶11. (U) According to the IMF, the authorities have not yet decided what their debt management strategy will be, notwithstanding public statements that they intend to restructure "illegitimate" debts and debts to private sector creditors. IMF staff told the authorities that a unilateral restructuring would yield little benefit. The World Bank noted that Ecuadorian bonds are now the riskiest among emerging markets, with spreads having increased to 950 basis points. -------------- THE GAMBIA -------------- ¶12. (U) The Secretariat will inform the authorities that creditors provided assurances for Gambia's new PRGF and urge them to clear all arrears. If performance under the program is satisfactory, Gambia could reach completion point at the time of the first review. The bulk of Gambia's $1.6 million Paris Club debt is owed to Norway. (The U.S. is not a creditor.) -------------- IRAQ -------------- ¶13. (SBU) The U.S. followed up on its previous request that Germany explain its attempt to collect 100 percent of a post-1990 pre-cutoff PARIS 00000328 007 OF 010 date claim on Iraq. Germany gave a confusing explanation, characterizing the claim as a loan made by the former German Democratic Republic in local Iraqi currency for medical devices delivered through 2005. Germany asserted that it was merely trying to recover German money in an Iraqi account which the Iraqi authorities had requested not be treated in the 2004 Paris Club agreement. At the request of the U.S., Germany will provide a written explanation to creditors. Russia expressed hope it might receive "legal authority" to sign its agreement with Iraq before the next Paris Club meeting in March. In a side conversation, the head of the Russian delegation suggested that the delay was due to technical reasons inside the government. (Russia remains the only Paris Club creditor that has yet to conclude its bilateral agreement implementing the December 2004 agreed minute.) -------------- JORDAN -------------- ¶14. (U) Once it has received a comfort letter from the IMF (required because Jordan has completed its IMF program),the Secretariat will inform the authorities that the fifth and final phase of Jordan's 2002 rescheduling, covering principal and interest payments falling due in 2007, has entered into force. The IMF said the comfort letter is in production and will be sent to the Secretariat shortly. -------------- KENYA -------------- ¶15. (U) Kenya's PRGF has been extended until February 28 to allow time for completion of the second review. Creditors will decide at the March meeting whether to enter into force the third and final phase of Kenya's 2004 rescheduling, which is conditioned on completion of the review. The third phase covers principal and interest payments falling due in 2006. PARIS 00000328 008 OF 010 -------------- LEBANON -------------- ¶16. (U) The IMF said the authorities have requested Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance (EPCA) and announced an ambitious reform program designed to reduce external debt from its current level of 188 to 50 percent of GDP by 2011 through fiscal adjustment and privatization. IMF staff believes these measures alone will not be sufficient to restore debt sustainability and must be combined with robust grant support from donors. The U.S. and France said they would announce substantial assistance packages at the donors' conference. -------------- MACEDONIA -------------- ¶17. (U) Creditors accepted Macedonia's offer to prepay at face value its previously rescheduled Paris Club debt (both ODA and non-ODA). The total amount eligible to be prepaid is $104 million. The U.S. is Macedonia's largest creditor, with Ex-Im holding $36 million in previously rescheduled non-ODA debt, all of which is prepayable without penalty. Macedonia said the prepayment was motivated by a desire to use surplus revenues generated by recent privatizations to reduce debt service costs and improve the country's credit rating. -------------- PAKISTAN -------------- ¶18. (U) Belgium announced that it intends to conclude a debt-for-aid swap with Pakistan, which will fund several Asian Development Bank-led health and education projects worth 30 million euros. Russia reported $4.7 million in arrears, but said it would not try to block the debt swap. The Secretariat will remind Pakistan to PARIS 00000328 009 OF 010 clear any arrears that may exist. -------------- RUSSIA -------------- ¶19. (U) Russia summarized its new policy to forgive 100 percent of debts owed by HIPC countries that reach completion point. Countries that will benefit immediately are Benin, Ethiopia, Guyana, Madagascar, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia. The combined stock of debt owed by these countries to Russia after reaching completion point amounts to $526 million. The cancellation of this debt will be implemented through debt-for-aid swaps implemented in close cooperation with the World Bank. Russia intends to extend this policy to other HIPC countries as soon as they reach completion point. -------------- SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE -------------- ¶20. (U) STP is expected to reach HIPC completion point in late February or early March. Negotiations in the Paris Club are tentatively scheduled for April. (The U.S. is not a creditor.) -------------- SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO -------------- ¶21. (SBU) The Secretariat contacted the authorities to convey concerns raised by certain creditors (Japan, Netherlands, Norway) regarding the decision by Serbia and Montenegro to allocate debt between themselves according to the final beneficiary principle. The authorities understood the message without giving any indication they would change their approach. Serbia asserted no Paris Club creditor had registered problems with the final beneficiary principle. (The US and France intend to use the final beneficiary PARIS 00000328 010 OF 010 principle in their bilateral agreements.) Japan insisted that Serbia and Montenegro must respect the debtor/guarantor principle rather than the final beneficiary principle (unless otherwise specified by the creditor),and asked the Secretariat to consider further action. -------------- SIERRA LEONE -------------- ¶22. (U) The Paris Club, along with Kuwait, which also signed Sierra Leone's 2001 Paris Club agreement, cancelled 100 percent of Sierra Leone's bilateral debt. The total value of the debt forgiven amounted to $363 million, including cancellation of $44 million in USDA concessional loans under the PL 480 program. Finance Minister John Benjamin expressed gratitude to the Paris Club for supporting Sierra Leone during its civil war and for the final completion point treatment of its bilateral debt. Benjamin also underscored the role of debt relief in freeing resources to pursue the GOSL's priorities of improving governance, reducing poverty, and strengthening health and education programs. -------------- TONGA -------------- ¶23. (U) Tonga has asked Germany to extend the maturity of certain ODA debts. Germany will deal with the issue bilaterally. France is the only other creditor. STAPLETON#