GOF: LEBANON CONFERENCE AND DIALOGUE WITH SYRIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002685

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2017
TAGS: PREL LE SY FR
SUBJECT: GOF: LEBANON CONFERENCE AND DIALOGUE WITH SYRIA


Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR JOSIAH ROSENBLATT FOR REASO
NS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Boris Boillon, President Sarkozy's Middle
East Advisor, told us on June 21 that France would await the
results of the Arab League's national dialogue conference in
Beirut, scheduled for next week, before ultimately committing
to host a similar event in Paris. As a result, the notional
date for the Paris even would slip to mid-July. Boillon
noted that "the good bureaucrat" PM Siniora took a cautious
approach and "did not dare" express reservations in his
discussion with Sarkozy about the proposed Paris conference,
but he did lay out three pre-conditions: no media play, only
mid-level attendance, and no conference outcome obligating
the participants. On Syria, Boillon said the GOF had passed
a message to Damascus that "the door is closing" for a
dialogue with France; "unless calm was restored (following
the Eido assassination) and things got better" in the next
few weeks, France would abandon the initiative. END SUMMARY

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LEBANON
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2. (C) In a June 21 meeting with POL M/C, President Sarkozy's
Middle East Advisor, Boris Boillon, told us that the Arab
League's Secretary General Amr Mousa, cribbing from the
French idea, had proposed to hold a Lebanese national
dialogue conference in Beirut next week. Boillon said this
would give all of the parties an opportunity to come together
on the ground. If the result was positive (or at least not
negative),Paris would proceed to host a similar event, as
previously proposed, in mid-July. Alternatively, if the
outcome clearly showed the concept to be a failure, this
would present a face-saving way for the GOF to drop their
conference initiative.


3. (C) Boillon argued that the proposed Paris dialogue was
intended in no way to discredit the legitimate government of
Lebanon and the March 14 movement, but was focused entirely
on promoting national reconciliation. "We will send a clear
message to Siniora about the fact that France will not
abandon him, but that if he wants a national reconciliation
government, he will need to work at it." The GOF is very
concerned that a Gaza-like situation is in now in the making,
Boillon said, with a growing prospect of competing
governments and even civil war. "We must take them by the
hand and help the process along," he insisted.


4. (C) Boillon said Sarkozy had spoken to PM Siniora the
previous week to propose the conference. Siniora, acting
like "the good bureaucrat," he said, "did not dare" express
reservations to Sarkozy about France's proposed conference,
and even referred to it as "noble," adding that he knew
Siniora was telling us another story. Siniora did pose three
key conditions: (1) there would be no mediatization of the
event; (2) attendance would be limited to mid-level
officials; and (3) there would be no conference outcome
establishing obligations for the participants.

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SYRIA
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5. (C) Boillon reported that following Walid Eido's
assassination, the GOF had passed a message through its
embassy in Damascus that France would not be able to build a
dialogue with Syria "until calm is restored" and only if
"things get better" over the next few weeks. The dialogue,
Boillon stated, would be on Lebanon, and would seek to assure
Damascus that Paris did not seek regime change in Syria. The
embassy had made clear that "the door is closing" for
dialogue with Syria, he said, but whether it shut completely
would be up to the Syrians. The Syrians, not surprisingly,
were relieved, taking the message to mean the dialogue could
still move forward, he said. Boillon did not respond
directly to Pol M/C's recitation of current and recent deadly
mischief traceable to Syria, observing simply that the GOF
nonetheless believed that dialogue with the Syrians could be
useful. Boillon insisted there was "no chance" France would
be used by Syria. "We know it is a brutal regime," he
insisted. Boillon added, "we will keep in close touch with
the U.S. and will not do anything behind your back."


6. (C) Comment: Sarkozy's new Middle East team appears to
be clinging to the two initiatives that were intended to
demonstrate a break with the Chirac era -- outreach beyond

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Hariri and March 14 in Lebanon, and an offer of dialogue with
Syria on such easy terms that even a major assassination has
not forced them to withdraw it.

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm


STAPLETON