GOF: LEBANON CONFERENCE AND DIALOGUE WITH SYRIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002685 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2017 TAGS: PREL LE SY FR SUBJECT: GOF: LEBANON CONFERENCE AND DIALOGUE WITH SYRIA Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR JOSIAH ROSENBLATT FOR REASO NS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Boris Boillon, President Sarkozy's Middle East Advisor, told us on June 21 that France would await the results of the Arab League's national dialogue conference in Beirut, scheduled for next week, before ultimately committing to host a similar event in Paris. As a result, the notional date for the Paris even would slip to mid-July. Boillon noted that "the good bureaucrat" PM Siniora took a cautious approach and "did not dare" express reservations in his discussion with Sarkozy about the proposed Paris conference, but he did lay out three pre-conditions: no media play, only mid-level attendance, and no conference outcome obligating the participants. On Syria, Boillon said the GOF had passed a message to Damascus that "the door is closing" for a dialogue with France; "unless calm was restored (following the Eido assassination) and things got better" in the next few weeks, France would abandon the initiative. END SUMMARY -------------- LEBANON -------------- ¶2. (C) In a June 21 meeting with POL M/C, President Sarkozy's Middle East Advisor, Boris Boillon, told us that the Arab League's Secretary General Amr Mousa, cribbing from the French idea, had proposed to hold a Lebanese national dialogue conference in Beirut next week. Boillon said this would give all of the parties an opportunity to come together on the ground. If the result was positive (or at least not negative),Paris would proceed to host a similar event, as previously proposed, in mid-July. Alternatively, if the outcome clearly showed the concept to be a failure, this would present a face-saving way for the GOF to drop their conference initiative. ¶3. (C) Boillon argued that the proposed Paris dialogue was intended in no way to discredit the legitimate government of Lebanon and the March 14 movement, but was focused entirely on promoting national reconciliation. "We will send a clear message to Siniora about the fact that France will not abandon him, but that if he wants a national reconciliation government, he will need to work at it." The GOF is very concerned that a Gaza-like situation is in now in the making, Boillon said, with a growing prospect of competing governments and even civil war. "We must take them by the hand and help the process along," he insisted. ¶4. (C) Boillon said Sarkozy had spoken to PM Siniora the previous week to propose the conference. Siniora, acting like "the good bureaucrat," he said, "did not dare" express reservations to Sarkozy about France's proposed conference, and even referred to it as "noble," adding that he knew Siniora was telling us another story. Siniora did pose three key conditions: (1) there would be no mediatization of the event; (2) attendance would be limited to mid-level officials; and (3) there would be no conference outcome establishing obligations for the participants. -------------- SYRIA -------------- ¶5. (C) Boillon reported that following Walid Eido's assassination, the GOF had passed a message through its embassy in Damascus that France would not be able to build a dialogue with Syria "until calm is restored" and only if "things get better" over the next few weeks. The dialogue, Boillon stated, would be on Lebanon, and would seek to assure Damascus that Paris did not seek regime change in Syria. The embassy had made clear that "the door is closing" for dialogue with Syria, he said, but whether it shut completely would be up to the Syrians. The Syrians, not surprisingly, were relieved, taking the message to mean the dialogue could still move forward, he said. Boillon did not respond directly to Pol M/C's recitation of current and recent deadly mischief traceable to Syria, observing simply that the GOF nonetheless believed that dialogue with the Syrians could be useful. Boillon insisted there was "no chance" France would be used by Syria. "We know it is a brutal regime," he insisted. Boillon added, "we will keep in close touch with the U.S. and will not do anything behind your back." ¶6. (C) Comment: Sarkozy's new Middle East team appears to be clinging to the two initiatives that were intended to demonstrate a break with the Chirac era -- outreach beyond PARIS 00002685 002 OF 002 Hariri and March 14 in Lebanon, and an offer of dialogue with Syria on such easy terms that even a major assassination has not forced them to withdraw it. Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm STAPLETON