SCENESETTER FOR THE SECRETARY'S JANUARY 24-25 VISIT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 000243 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL:01/18/17 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM LE FR SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE SECRETARY'S JANUARY 24-25 VISIT TO FRANCE CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR CRAIG R. STAPLETON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) MADAM SECRETARY, YOUR PARTICIPATION IN THE JANUARY 25 PAGE 02 RUEHFRA0243 C O N F I D E N T I A L INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON LEBANON, AND THE STRONG U.S. FINANCIAL PACKAGE YOU BRING TO THE TABLE, WILL BE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT FOR LEBANON AND THUS VERY WELL RECEIVED BY THE FRENCH AND CHIRAC IN PARTICULAR. CHIRAC'S INTENTION TO REMAIN IN THE CHAIR FOR THE FULL DAY INDICATES THE DEPTH OF HIS PERSONAL COMMITMENT TO LEBANONS POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC VIABILITY. WITH AN EYE TO HIS LEGACY, CHIRAC IS KEEPING A FIRM HAND ON THE FOREIGN POLICY TILLER IN HIS FINAL MONTHS IN OFFICE. YOUR BILATERAL MEETING, LIKELY ONE OF OUR LAST WITH CHIRAC AS PRESIDENT, WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEEK CLARITY ON ANY DIPLOMATIC OPENINGS FRANCE MIGHT MAKE TOWARDS IRAN, AND TO UPDATE HIM ON YOUR LATEST TRIP TO THE MIDDLE EAST, AND TO DISCUSS HIS UNIFORMLY PESSIMISTIC VIEWS CONCERNING THE RANGE OF MIDDLE EAST ISSUES AND AFGHANISTAN. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON LEBANON - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) THE JANUARY 25 CONFERENCE WILL BE THE THIRD SUCH CONFERENCE HOSTED BY PRESIDENT CHIRAC SINCE 2001. WITH 1700 PAGE 03 RUEHFRA0243 C O N F I D E N T I A L FRENCH TROOPS ON THE GROUND IN LEBANON, POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY IN BEIRUT AND A LEBANESE ECONOMY STUMBLING SINCE THE JULY WAR, CHIRAC IS DESPERATE FOR SUCCESS. HE HAS PLACED CALLS TO HEADS OF STATE ENCOURAGING SUPPORT, AND FOREIGN MINISTER DOUSTE-BLAZY WAS RECENTLY IN THE MIDDLE EAST PRESSING SAUDI ARABIA, AMONG OTHER PARTNERS, TO BE GENEROUS. CHIRAC'S DIPLOMATIC ADVISOR MAURICE GOURDAULT-MONTAGNE TOLD ME THIS MORNING THE FRENCH WILL OFFER A PACKAGE OF 500 MILLION EUROS AT THE CONFERENCE. ¶3. (C) THE FRENCH ARE HOPEFUL ABOUT THE GOL'S AMBITIOUS ECONOMIC REFORM PROGRAM, BUT SHARE CONCERNS ABOUT IMPLEMENTATION AND SUPPORT SEQUENCING OF ASSISTANCE TO ENCOURAGE FOLLOW-THROUGH. THEY ALSO HAVE STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE OF THE REFORM PROGRAM BEING BROAD-BASED AND INCLUSIVE OF ALL PARTS OF LEBANESE SOCIETY TO PRESERVE POLITICAL PEACE. THE FRENCH AGREE THAT THE IMPRIMATUR OF AN IMF PROGRAM WILL BE PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT, AND HAVE ENCOURAGED THE GOL IN THAT DIRECTION. BROADER MIDDLE EAST POLICY - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PAGE 04 RUEHFRA0243 C O N F I D E N T I A L ¶4. (C) MFA POLITICAL DIRECTOR GERARD ARAUD ADMITTED TO ME ON JAN. 15 THAT CHIRAC IS "OBSESSED" WITH LEBANON. WE SEE THIS IN CHIRAC'S ABORTIVE EFFORTS TO HAVE HIS FOREIGN MINISTER ENGAGE WITH TEHRAN IN AN EFFORT TO CONTAIN HIZBOLLAH. THE INITIATIVE WAS SQUELCHED BY OPEN OPPOSITION FROM THE QUAI AS WELL AS THE SAUDIS AND EGYPTIANS, BUT IT COULD PRESAGE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AT THE NEXUS OF IRAN - LEBANON POLICY DURING THE FINAL MONTHS OF THE CHIRAC PRESIDENCY. THERE ALSO HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS INDICATIONS IN RECENT WEEKS THAT CHIRAC IS ESPECIALLY PREOCCUPIED WITH THE SAFETY OF FRANCE'S UNIFIL PEACEKEEPERS. HE WILL BE CAUTIOUS WHEN CONSIDERING OPTIONS FOR STRENGTHENING THE ENFORCEMENT OF UNSCR 1701. BASED ON MY CONVERSATION WITH GOURDAULT-MONTAGNE, CHIRAC'S CONCERN ABOUT UNIFIL'S EXPOSURE MAY EVEN BE LEADING HIM TO CONSIDER SUPPORTING POSTPONEMENT OF THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL. ¶5. (C) MANY AT THE MFA NONETHELESS WELCOME WHAT THEY SEE AS FORWARD MOMENTUM ON IRAN. UNANIMOUS ADOPTION OF 1737, THE OUTCOME OF IRANIAN ELECTIONS AND THE RESURRECTION OF IRANIAN PAGE 05 RUEHFRA0243 C O N F I D E N T I A L NEGOTIATOR LARIJANI ARE SEEN AS MOVES IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. FRANCE INTENDS TO JOIN WITH THE UK IN WORKING WITHIN THE EU FOR THE BROADEST POSSIBLE INTERPRETATION OF 1737. ¶6. (C) ON IRAQ, PRESIDENT CHIRAC CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT HIS OPPOSITION TO MILITARY ACTION HAS BEEN VINDICATED, EVEN GOING SO FAR, EARLIER THIS MONTH, TO REFERRING TO IT PUBLICLY AS AN "ADVENTURE". FRANCE PARTICIPATES IN THE IRAQ COMPACT PROCESS, ALBEIT AT A POLITICAL LEVEL, AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SUBSTANTIVE PLEDGE OF ECONOMIC SUPPORT AT THE COMPACT SIGNING CEREMONY. NOR, ABSENT DRAMATIC POLITICAL PROGRESS ON THE GROUND, DO WE EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE OVER THE MEDIUM TERM. ¶7. (C) THE FRENCH REMAIN PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE FUTURE OF ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN RELATIONS AND CONTINUE TO PUSH THE IDEA OF AN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE. THEY CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR THE PALESTINIANS TO FORM A NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT, AND WOULD LIKELY EMBRACE SUCH A GOVERNMENT WHETHER OR NOT IT EXPLICITLY ACCEPTS THE QUARTET PRINCIPLES, EVEN IF THAT MEANS BREAKING RANKS WITH OTHER EU STATES. YOU CAN STRESS THAT ANY HINT OF PAGE 06 RUEHFRA0243 C O N F I D E N T I A L WAFFLING ON THE QUARTET PRINCIPLES ONLY SERVES TO UNDERMINE PRESIDENT ABBAS' NEGOTIATING POSITION WITH REGARD TO HAMAS. FRANCE AND NATO - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) THE FRENCH ARE WELL-AWARE OF OUR OPPOSITION TO PRESIDENT CHIRAC'S PROPOSAL FOR AN "AFGHANISTAN CONTACT GROUP," BUT YOU CAN EXPECT THE ISSUE TO BE RAISED BOTH HERE AND IN BRUSSELS. THE FRENCH ARE LOOKING TO PLAY A MORE ACTIVE ROLE IN CIVILIAN PAGE 02 RUEHFRA0243 C O N F I D E N T I A L RECONSTRUCTION, A MOVE WE COULD WELCOME BUT THROUGH THE JOINT COORDINATION AND MANAGEMENT BOARD. FRANCE'S LIFTING OF ITS "INFORMAL" GEOGRAPHICAL CAVEAT AT RIGA WAS AN IMPORTANT STEP FORWARD IN ENSURING MORE ROBUST CONTRIBUTIONS TO ISAF. FRANCE PLAYED A ROLE IN RECENT ISAF SUCCESSES, INCLUDING A FRENCH CIVIL-MILITARY COOPERATION TEAM THAT DEPLOYED TO THE SOUTH FROM KABUL AS PART OF AN EFFORT TO CLEAN OUT POCKETS OF TALIBAN RESISTANCE. ¶9. (C) DISCUSSION ON KOSOVO WILL ALSO BE A PRIORITY FOR THE FRENCH IN BRUSSELS, WHO AGREE THAT INDEPENDENCE FOR KOSOVO IS THE ONLY VIABLE OUTCOME. HOWEVER, AT THE MOST RECENT QUINT POLITICAL DIRECTORS MEETING IN WASHINGTON ON JANUARY 17, FRENCH OFFICIALS CONTINUED TO PUSH A DELAY IN AHTISAARI'S PRESENTATION OF HIS PACKAGE TO THE UNSC (APRIL VICE MARCH). CHIRAC REMAINS PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO RUSSIAN CONCERNS ABOUT A UNSCR, SO YOU CAN STRESS THE IMPORTANCE OF QUINT UNITY AS WE MOVE FORWARD IN THE SECURITY COUNCIL. FRANCE HAS 2,000 TROOPS IN KOSOVO, AND WILL WANT REASSURANCE THAT THE U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO IMPLEMENT THE PRESIDENT'S "IN-TOGETHER, OUT-TOGETHER" PLEDGE TO ALLIES ON PAGE 03 RUEHFRA0243 C O N F I D E N T I A L THIS LONG-RUNNING NATO MISSION. FRENCH POLITICAL CONTEXT - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (C) FRANCE'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IS ABOUT TO SHIFT INTO HIGH GEAR. CHIRAC REMAINS COY ABOUT HIS OWN INTENTIONS, BUT THE CHANCES OF HIS STANDING AGAIN ARE SLIM, GIVEN HIS LOW APPROVAL RATINGS ON ALL BUT FOREIGN POLICY. NO FRIEND OF CHIRAC, CENTER-RIGHT CANDIDATE NICOLAS SARKOZY SAID IN HIS JANUARY 14 NOMINATION ACCEPTANCE SPEECH THAT CHIRAC WAS "RIGHT" ON IRAQ. SARKOZY'S SOCIALIST OPPONENT, SEGOLENE ROYAL, HAS NO HIGH-LEVEL FOREIGN AFFAIRS EXPERIENCE, BUT HAS MADE CLEAR THAT SHE INTENDS TO CARRY ON THE FOREIGN POLICY LEGACY OF HER MENTOR, PRESIDENT FRANCOIS MITTERRAND: FRANCE AS AN IMPORTANT, INDEPENDENT ACTOR ON THE WORLD STAGE THANKS TO ITS LEADERSHIP IN PEACEMAKING AND ON HUMAN RIGHTS. ¶11. (C) ROYAL HAS TAKEN SOME SURPRISING POSITIONS, NOTABLY OUTFLANKING THE RIGHT BY INSISTING THAT IRAN NOT BE ALLOWED TO PAGE 04 RUEHFRA0243 C O N F I D E N T I A L DEVELOP A CIVILIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM. FOR HIS PART, WE DON'T ASSUME THAT SARKOZY'S FONDNESS FOR FREE MARKET REFORM, TRANS-ATLANTICISM AND A MORE CONFIDENT RELATIONSHIP WITH THE U.S. WOULD DISSOLVE U.S.-FRANCE DIFFERENCES OVERNIGHT. ¶12. (C) MADAM SECRETARY, WHILE YOUR STAY IN FRANCE WILL BE BRIEF, ON THE MARGINS OF THE LEBANON CONFERENCE WE HOPE YOU CAN SPEAK TO THE FRENCH MEDIA, AND THUS DIRECTLY TO THE FRENCH PEOPLE. AS WE ENTER THE ELECTION PERIOD, GETTING OUR MESSAGE DIRECTLY TO THE FRENCH PUBLIC, EXPRESSING OUR APPRECIATION FOR OUR COMMON WORK AND EXPLAINING OUR DIFFERENCES, TAKES ON PARTICULAR IMPORTANCE. WE LOOK FORWARD TO WELCOMING YOU TO PARIS. STAPLETON