WEEKLY MEDIA WRAP-UP: IRAN; SECRETARY RICE IN THE MIDDLE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000218 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/PPD, EUR/WE, INR, R E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC PREL KPAO FR SUBJECT: WEEKLY MEDIA WRAP-UP: IRAN; SECRETARY RICE IN THE MIDDLE EAST; PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE SARKOZY. JANUARY 19, 2007. PARIS 00000218 001.2 OF 002 Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Iran dominated international news this week with the visit to Latin America of Iranian president Ahmadinejad, the deployment of an American aircraft carrier to the Gulf (described as a "warning to Iran" by right-of-center Le Figaro on January 16); and President Chirac's initiative to send a French envoy to Teheran ostensibly to stabilize Lebanon and to "avoid isolating Iran" from the international community (January 17 edition of Le Figaro). On January 19, left-of-center Le Monde's editorial questioned Jacques Chirac's "going it alone... when he had always previously coordinated with the U.S. concerning Lebanon... and the Iranian nuclear issue." Secretary Rice's trip to the Middle East this week was deemed "futile" by left-wing Liberation on January 15, and most commentaries agreed that the U.S.'s top priority is no longer the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but Iraq and Iran. UMP leader and Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy officially became his party's candidate for the presidential race in France. The national dailies tended to praise Sarkozy's acceptance message while several regional commentaries likened the UMP convention to the "coronation of Napoleon" and said that Sarkozy was "hailed like a Roman emperor," (Regional Le Midi Libre and Le Courrier Picard respectively on January 15). End Summary. -------------- IRAN -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On January 17, left-of-center Le Monde's headline announced that President Chirac was "attempting to open diplomatic dialogue with Iran just when the latter is facing UN sanctions." The French president would like to send a high ranking envoy to Tehran to discuss the situation in Lebanon. "President Chirac intends to make Lebanon one of his top foreign policy priorities in the period leading up to the presidential election... To this end he has organized a Donor's Conference in Paris on January 25... The objective is to send a signal to the Iranian authorities that dialogue can be maintained in spite of UNSC Resolution 1737 calling for sanctions." ¶3. (SBU) On January 18, Catholic La Croix's Jean-Christophe Ploquin noted that the "Iran nuclear issue no longer unites the U.S. and France as it once did... and the rift is growing... The Bush Administration appears to be ready for a test of strength between the U.S. and Iran over the latter's influence in Iraq while Jacques Chirac, for his part, is trying to guarantee the stability of Lebanon where Iran has a large degree of influence via Hezbollah... The elections in Iran showed that the issue of its nuclear program, which has led to the isolation of Iran on the international scene, is not perceived as a priority by the Iranian people... Jacques Chirac may have had this shifting political situation in mind thinking the timing perfect to convince Tehran to cool its heels. But it may already be too late because of the new American strategy in Iraq which will give new impetus to the most anti-Western faction in Tehran and force those who are favorable to a possible overture to close ranks." ¶4. (SBU) The unsigned editorial in left-of-center Le Monde on January 19, "Going it Alone," opined that President Chirac's objectives vis-a-vis Iran are comprehensible and laudable but the way he wants to carry them out is strange... just when the UNSC is trying to implement sanctions on Iran... The concern is that the spiral of sanctions will, as in Iraq in 2003, lead to a U.S. military intervention. Chirac therefore, is trying a last-ditch effort to find a solution to the Iranian problem... But what can he give Tehran in exchange for cooperation on Lebanon? The recognition of Iran as an influential regional actor? Tehran is seeking that from the U.S., not France, and Chirac is not in a position to speak in the U.S.'s name... The problem is that Jacques Chirac has given contradictory signals according to the circumstances. France was in the forefront of threatening Iran with sanctions... By shifting, Jacques Chirac is running the risk of endangering his country's credibility." ¶5. (SBU) An op-ed in the January 17 edition of left-of-center Le Monde by Daniel Vernet noted that "Two months after the defeat of his Republican friends during the midterm elections, George Bush has not changed strategies in Iraq but has opened a new front in the Middle East. From Baghdad, attention has shifted to Tehran. The shift seems to be the end result of discussions that are as old as this administration... Washington has sent a second aircraft carrier to the Gulf. This could be a deterrence tactic, or a starting point for commando operations designed to 'punish' Iran or PARIS 00000218 002.2 OF 002 inflict damage on certain infrastructures, including nuclear... The Bush Administration and Israel are displaying growing impatience with the futility of the efforts expended at the UN to attempt to prevent Iran from acquiring the bomb. In order to reach consensus, the West was forced to empty the Resolution of all substance. Europe, which instigated the diplomatic effort, is not admitting its failure but should acknowledge that the unity of the international community that it bragged about is a recipe for powerlessness... Europe has tried to avoid facing the prospect of deciding between American bombings in Iran or the Iranian bomb. Most likely there will be bombings and the bomb." ¶6. (SBU) State-run France Inter radio commentator Dominique Bromberger told listeners on January 17 that "just when the American president has given the order to reinforce troops in Iraq, Russia has announced that it is delivering TOR-M1 missiles to Iran... Missiles that can shoot down a jet or intercept a cruise missile and that could be deployed around Iran's nuclear installations... The signal sent to Washington is clear. Russia opposes an intervention against Iran and wants this to be known." -------------- SECRETARY RICE IN THE MIDDLE EAST SIPDIS -------------- ¶7. (SBU) On Monday January 15, right-of-center Le Figaro reported that "Condoleezza Rice tried, without too much success, to clear the murky political horizon between the Palestinians and the Israelis. Considering the difficulty of the task, she prudently announced that she would be arriving in the Middle East without a trace of a revised peace plan in her pocket." ¶8. (SBU) On January 16, dailies put the emphasis on Secretary Rice's allegedly "not having a plan" with regard to her trip to the Middle East. "She has repeated that she supports the creation of a Palestinian state and that the Road Map needs to be re-launched... But this trip has once again clearly shown that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not a real priority for Washington which is much more preoccupied with the war in Iraq and the Iranian nuclear issue... as well as the tensions between Lebanon and Syria" (right-of-center Le Figaro). -------------- PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE SARKOZY -------------- ¶10. (SBU) On January 15, the day following the UMP convention at which Nicolas Sarkozy was chosen as the party's presidential candidate, headlines and commentaries analyzing Sarkozy's performance abounded. Laurent Joffrin in left-wing Liberation warned that "this man is dangerous: especially for the Left... He has triumphed through his energy, talent and organization. He knows what he is doing and that is what has his adversaries worried..." For Catholic La Croix's Francois Ernewein, "the Left is still swimming in its contradictions, while Nicolas Sarkozy is pushing ahead with a detailed plan for the future. A plan that leaves no one, or almost no one, behind... and that serves to underscore the vagueness of the Left's candidate Segolene Royal..." ¶11. (SBU) Headlines on January 16 focused on Nicolas Sarkozy's acceptance speech following the UMP's 98 percent vote to designate him as their candidate for the upcoming presidential election. For left-of-center Le Monde, Sarkozy is seeking to "unite his Party" and right-of-center Le Figaro leads with the claim that "the Right gets a new boost and the Left is at a loss." The unsigned editorial in left-of-center Le Monde, "A New Sarkozy?" notes that "Sarkozy has donned the double appearance of a man who can unite and who 'has changed...' He no longer speaks of a 'quiet rift' but instead highlights his admiration for Jacques Chirac, he also makes amends for the war in Iraq acknowledging that the French president "was a credit to France" by opposing it... Sarkozy is defying the Left on its own turf." STAPLETON