SARKOZY LEADS ROYAL INTO SECOND ROUND OF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001611 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, AND EB DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON SUBJECT: SARKOZY LEADS ROYAL INTO SECOND ROUND OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION REF: A. (A) PARIS 1595 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. (B) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY SIPRNET REPORT FOR APRIL 20 ¶C. 2007 PARIS 00001611 001.2 OF 002 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) In the first round of France's 2007 presidential election, center-right candidate Nicolas Sarkozy clearly bested center-left candidate Segolene Royal, with centrist candidate Francois Bayrou coming in third. As expected, therefore, Royal and Sarkozy will go on to the second round of the election May 6. Royal will seek to mobilize an "anyone but Sarkozy" sentiment in her quest to become France's first woman president. Bayrou's voters will be key to the second-round outcome. ¶2. (U) At 8 P.M. Paris time on the evening of April 22, France's Ministry of the Interior released the official, preliminary results of the 2007 presidential election's first round: Nicolas Sarkozy, Union for Popular Movement (UMP),30 percent; Segolene Royal, Socialist Party (PS),25.2 percent; Francois Bayrou, Union for French Democracy (UDF),18.3 percent; Jean-Marie Le Pen, National Front (FN),11.5 percent. Official, updated vote totals )- for all 12 first-round contenders )- are posted on the French Ministry of the Interior's website at www.interieur.gouv.fr. RECORD TURN-OUT -------------- ¶3. (U) Just under 85 percent of France's nearly 44.5 million registered voters turned out to vote on Sunday, April 22. Good weather and enormous enthusiasm for this election -- voters clearly felt an important choice was theirs to make -- conspired to produce the record turn-out. THE WINNER REALLY WON -------------- ¶4. (U) Both Sarkozy and Royal, as has been expected, will be going on to the second-round face-off May 6. Sarkozy's clear-cut first place finish over Royal boosts his momentum going into their two-week head-to-head second-round campaign. Sarkozy however, remains a polarizing figure. The prospect of a right-wing Sarkozy presidency will be used by Royal to stir up an "anybody but Sarkozy" mobilization that she is counting on for an upset victory in the second round. Sarkozy is expected to highlight the conciliatory and centrist features of his vision for France, along with "a clear-cut choice between two visions of French society, two systems of values," as he called for in his victory statement. EXTREMES AT NEW LOWS -------------- ¶5. (U) The candidates of France's three mainstream parties took almost three quarters of the votes cast. The extreme right and the extreme left, which in the first round of the last presidential election in 2002 edged towards nearly half the votes cast, saw their combined vote total halved in this election. Francois Bayrou, leader of the centrist, Union for French Democracy (UDF) party nearly tripled his vote count compared to 2002, receiving a record centrist vote. The record turn-out, along with record number of new voters (3.3 million more registered voters than in 2002) was clearly part of the dynamic that largely marginalized both the extreme right and far left. THE RESULTS -------------- ¶6. (U) At 8 P.M. Paris time on the evening of April 22, France's Ministry of the Interior posted the official, preliminary results of the 2007 presidential election's first round: Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP),30 percent; Segolene Royal, PS, 25.2 percent; Francois Bayrou, Union for French Democracy (UDF),18.3 percent; Jean-Marie Le Pen, National Front (FN); 11.5 percent. Official, updated vote totals )- for all 12 first-round contenders )- are posted on the French Ministry of the Interior's website at www.interieur.gouv.fr. Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm PARIS 00001611 002.2 OF 002 STAPLETON