SARKOZY LEADS ROYAL INTO SECOND ROUND OF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001611

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: SARKOZY LEADS ROYAL INTO SECOND ROUND OF
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

REF: A. (A) PARIS 1595 AND PREVIOUS


B. (B) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY SIPRNET REPORT FOR APRIL
20

C. 2007

PARIS 00001611 001.2 OF 002


SUMMARY
--------------

1. (U) In the first round of France's 2007 presidential
election, center-right candidate Nicolas Sarkozy clearly
bested center-left candidate Segolene Royal, with centrist
candidate Francois Bayrou coming in third. As expected,
therefore, Royal and Sarkozy will go on to the second round
of the election May 6. Royal will seek to mobilize an
"anyone but Sarkozy" sentiment in her quest to become
France's first woman president. Bayrou's voters will be key
to the second-round outcome.


2. (U) At 8 P.M. Paris time on the evening of April 22,
France's Ministry of the Interior released the official,
preliminary results of the 2007 presidential election's first
round: Nicolas Sarkozy, Union for Popular Movement (UMP),30
percent; Segolene Royal, Socialist Party (PS),25.2 percent;
Francois Bayrou, Union for French Democracy (UDF),18.3
percent; Jean-Marie Le Pen, National Front (FN),11.5
percent. Official, updated vote totals )- for all 12
first-round contenders )- are posted on the French Ministry
of the Interior's website at www.interieur.gouv.fr.

RECORD TURN-OUT
--------------

3. (U) Just under 85 percent of France's nearly 44.5 million
registered voters turned out to vote on Sunday, April 22.
Good weather and enormous enthusiasm for this election --
voters clearly felt an important choice was theirs to make --
conspired to produce the record turn-out.

THE WINNER REALLY WON
--------------

4. (U) Both Sarkozy and Royal, as has been expected, will be
going on to the second-round face-off May 6. Sarkozy's
clear-cut first place finish over Royal boosts his momentum
going into their two-week head-to-head second-round campaign.
Sarkozy however, remains a polarizing figure. The prospect
of a right-wing Sarkozy presidency will be used by Royal to
stir up an "anybody but Sarkozy" mobilization that she is
counting on for an upset victory in the second round.
Sarkozy is expected to highlight the conciliatory and
centrist features of his vision for France, along with "a
clear-cut choice between two visions of French society, two
systems of values," as he called for in his victory statement.

EXTREMES AT NEW LOWS
--------------

5. (U) The candidates of France's three mainstream parties
took almost three quarters of the votes cast. The extreme
right and the extreme left, which in the first round of the
last presidential election in 2002 edged towards nearly half
the votes cast, saw their combined vote total halved in this
election. Francois Bayrou, leader of the centrist, Union for
French Democracy (UDF) party nearly tripled his vote count
compared to 2002, receiving a record centrist vote. The
record turn-out, along with record number of new voters (3.3
million more registered voters than in 2002) was clearly part
of the dynamic that largely marginalized both the extreme
right and far left.

THE RESULTS
--------------

6. (U) At 8 P.M. Paris time on the evening of April 22,
France's Ministry of the Interior posted the official,
preliminary results of the 2007 presidential election's first
round: Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP),30 percent; Segolene Royal, PS,
25.2 percent; Francois Bayrou, Union for French Democracy
(UDF),18.3 percent; Jean-Marie Le Pen, National Front (FN);
11.5 percent. Official, updated vote totals )- for all 12
first-round contenders )- are posted on the French Ministry
of the Interior's website at www.interieur.gouv.fr.
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm


PARIS 00001611 002.2 OF 002


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