ELECTION SNAPSHOT: WITH TEN DAYS TO GO - SARKOZY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001491 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, AND EB DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINR SOCI ECON EUN FR EUN SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT: WITH TEN DAYS TO GO - SARKOZY KEEPS STRONG LEAD IN POLLS REF: A. (A) PARIS 1386 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. (B) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY SIPRNET REPORT FOR 13APR07 AND PREVIOUS SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) With less than ten days remaining before the April 22 first round of France's presidential elections, the relative standing of the leading candidates in the polls remains essentially unchanged from what is was mid-March (refs). Heading into the home stretch, former Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy maintains his lead over all rivals, as he has in all polls of first-round voter intentions since mid-January, and he now appears almost certain to make it into the second round. Socialist candidate Segolene Royal is still second, but centrist Francois Bayrou remains close enough to overtake her. Extreme right war-horse Jean-Marie Le Pen continues to trail behind the three leaders. With no single issue dominating the campaign, persistent doubts about Sarkozy and Royal, even among many inclined to vote for them, continue to redound to Bayrou's benefit as a potential spoiler. A Le Pen repeat of 2002 appears increasingly less likely given his apparent inability to make inroads among new voters. All that said, the last week may yet have surprises in store. End Summary. "OFFICIAL" CAMPAIGN OPENS -- PUBLIC -------------- INTERESTED BUT UNCONVINCED -------------- ¶2. (U) As specifically laid out in France's election law, the presidential campaign entered its "official" period April 8. During this phase, equal media time for all candidates is strictly enforced (meaning that the eight minor candidates, who will likely garner about ten percent of the total vote, will nonetheless get two-thirds of the total air time). The campaign ads of all twelve candidates (refs) are broadcast by France's public TV and radio networks. In addition, even the country's tiniest villages are required to provide twelve uniform spaces for the campaign posters of each of the candidates. ¶3. (U) Levels of public interest in the election remain at record highs despite an oddly uneventful race, with the relative standing of the four key contenders remaining unchanged for over a month despite their frenetic campaigning. Partly because of that, this high level of interest coexists with a sense of letdown, a feeling that the campaign has, so far, disappointed in that no single, dominant issue has emerged. The public remains watchful, and not fully convinced, nagged by doubts about each of the leading candidates, even among those inclined to support them. This hesitancy across a broad spectrum of voters has led to reports of unprecedented numbers of "undecided" voters. In reality, the truly undecided are under ten percent of likely voters, not an unusually high number for this stage of a presidential race. The "hesitant who might still change their mind" -- which has led some pollsters to posit that as many as "two fifths of likely voters remain undecided" -- are in fact unconvinced supporters of a preferred candidate, and will in all likelihood vote for that candidate on April 22. SARKOZY IN THE LEAD IN ALL POLLS -------------- ¶4. (U) Nicolas Sarkozy continues to lead in all polls, with Segolene Royal placing second; Francois Bayrou comes in third, with Jean-Marie Le Pen still in the number four slot. Sarkozy has led in all polls since mid-January, when he officially became the nominee of the center-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party. Given the continuing spread between him in the others, the one projection for April 22 on which all observers agree is that -- barring some unforeseen reversal -- Sarkozy will make it into the second round, probably coming in first. On a number of salient issues -- law-and-order, immigration, integration, national identity, and employment -- pollsters note that Sarkozy remains the most credible candidate. DUELING SCENARIOS -------------- ¶5. (U) Beyond the general consensus that Sarkozy will make it into the second round, there is little agreement about what will happen to the other candidates on April 22. PARIS 00001491 002 OF 002 Observers remain divided over how much of a challenge the centrist, Union for French Democracy's (UDF) Bayrou presents to the Socialist Party's (PS) Royal. Some are partial to the scenario that Royal will barely squeak in ahead of Bayrou, as strong showings by Bayrou and Le Pen reduce the first-round vote shares of both the ultimate winners to under a quarter of the electorate each. Others believe that continuing doubts about Sarkozy and Royal will influence disaffected voters on the left and right enough to put Bayrou in second place. Still others argue that the sheer orneriness of French voters is such that they will deliberately vote in large numbers for the leader of the National Front (FN) party, Jean-Marie Le Pen. At this stage, a surge to Bayrou appears more likely than one to Le Pen, given polling evidence that Le Pen is not succeeding as well as the others in attracting new voters. ¶6. (U) That said, the next week could yet hold last-minute surprises. Former Socialist PM Michel Rocard -- without making clear whether his main purpose was to stop Sarkozy or to use Royal's weakness to push the Socialist Party more to the center -- called on Royal and Bayrou to form an alliance. Other last-minute maneuverings may well follow. LATEST POLLS -------------- ¶7. (U) In a poll taken this week (April 9 - 11) by the well-respected IPSOS polling organization, Sarkozy leads at 29.5 percent of first-round voter intentions. (Note: Vote totals above twenty-five percent are very strong showings in first rounds of French Presidential elections. End Note.) Royal is second with 24 percent of first round voter intentions, followed by Bayrou at 19 percent, with Le Pen bringing up the rear with 14 percent. The findings of this IPSOS poll track closely with those of other major polls. Indeed, the average of the six leading polling organizations puts Sarkozy at 28 percent, Royal at 24 percent, Bayrou at 19 percent and Le Pen at 14 percent. Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm STAPLETON