ELECTION SNAPSHOT: LEADERS HOLDING STEADY ONE

UNCLAS PARIS 001155 SIPDIS SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (CLASS. PARA. 8 CHANGED) DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, AND EB DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT: LEADERS HOLDING STEADY ONE MONTH FROM FIRST-ROUND ELECTION DAY Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) With one month to go before the April 22 first round of France's presidential election, the campaigns of all twelve candidates are in high gear. Nicolas Sarkozy, who leaves his post as Interior Minister on March 26 to dedicate himself full-time to the presidential race, continues to lead in all polls at around 30 percent, and may have slightly increased his advantage in first-round voter intentions. Socialist Segolene Royal seems to have reversed her falling numbers and stabilized at just below 25 percent, while the recent surge in the poll numbers of "third man" challenger Francois Bayrou seems to have leveled out at around 20 percent. Nationalist extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen continues to trail at under 15 percent, and has suggested he "could" call on his supporters to vote for Sarkozy in the election's second round May 6. The three leading candidates were actively maneuvering to increase their potential voting shares: Sarkozy admitted that his controversial proposal for Ministry of Immigration and National Identity is intended in part to rally a significant portion of Le Pen voters; to undercut Bayrou, Royal called for a a "Sixth Republic" and even a "constituent assembly"; and centrist Francois Bayrou -- at a venue with 6400 seats that represented a quantum jump in scale for a Bayrou-featured political event -- sounded like a leftist when lambasting Sarkozy for being a "friend of billionaires," and a rightist when lambasting Royal for aiming to "impose the Finnish social model on France." End Summary. Twelve Candidates on the First-Round Ballot -------------- ¶2. (U) On March 19, France's Constitutional Council announced that twelve candidates had qualified for the 2007 presidential race. There was never any doubt that the three mainstream candidates -- Interior Minister and President of the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party Nicolas Sarkozy, Poitou-Charentes region president and Socialist Party (PS) nominee Segolene Royal, and president of the centrist Union for French Democracy (UDF) party Francois Bayrou -- would make the cut. The remaining nine contenders, including 2002 second-place finisher Jean-Marie Le Pen, struggled to obtain the 500 signatures from local elected officials necessary to qualify. Most press commentary centered on whether the five candidates from far-left micro-parties could "take" enough votes from Royal to condemn her to a third place finish behind Bayrou, and elimination from the race. (Note: In the first round of the 2002 presidential contest, the eight minor, leftist candidates -- of a record-breaking total of sixteen candidates -- took nearly 30 percent of the first-round vote, causing the Socialist nominee, Lionel Jospin, to finish third behind right-wing extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen. In this year's elections, the Socialists have done their utmost to limit the number of far-left candidates and urged left-leaning voters "to make their votes count" by supporting Royal directly in the first round. End note.) ¶3. (U) In 2007's first round, there are "only" five, far left/green minor candidates. Among them are six-time presidential contender Arlette Laguiller of the Worker,s Struggle (LO) party; postman and Communist Revolutionary League (LCR) leader Olivier Besancenot; the Communist Party's (PC) Marie-George Buffet; and small town mayor Gerard Schivardi of the Worker,s Party (PT). Anti-globalization activist Jose Bove also managed to make the cut. Rounding out the field on the left is former Environment Minster Dominique Voynet of the Green Party (Les Verts). The right of the political spectrum will be represented (for the fourth time) by nationalist extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader of the National Front (FN) and anti-EU nationalist Philippe de Villiers of the Movement for France (MPF) party, as well as Frederic Nihous of the minuscule Hunting, Fishing, Nature and Traditions (CPNT) party. Little Change in Relative Standing of Leaders -------------- In Latest Polls -------------- ¶4. (U) Polls released during the week of March 19 - 23 show that Sarkozy's lead in first-round voter intentions is holding at around 30 percent (and possibly increasing slightly as the percentage of decided voters also increases slightly). Royal seems to have stopped the downward slide in her poll numbers, and is holding steady at about 25 percent of first-round voter intentions in all polls. Bayrou, depending on the poll, comes in with between 21 and 17 percent of first-round voter intentions, clearly indicating that the surge in his poll numbers over past weeks has, for the moment, stalled. Le Pen hangs in there, unchanged, at just under 15 percent. Sarkozy: Turns to the Right to Secure his Base -------------- - ¶5. (U) The repercussions of uncontrolled immigration are a key issue for "popular France" -- the portion of the society that is less well-off and less well-educated, and feels most threatened by job competition from immigrants and by the culture clash that accompanies the sociological transformation of neighborhoods. The bulk of Le Pen's constituency falls into this "popular" category, and Sarkozy has long counted on winning the support of a significant portion of them. In proposing a Ministry of Immigration and National Identity, Sarkozy was responding to a public demand (that goes well beyond Le Pen voters) that the government get immigration under control. Sarkozy was also burnishing his credentials among the Le Pen supporters for whom immigration is the key issue. In a TV appearance March 19, Sarkozy freely acknowledged that his proposal to establish a new immigration ministry represented an attempt to win far-right votes. Sarkozy said that it was his intention to "bring back into the camp of the republic those voters who have gone over to the National Front." ¶6. (U) At a large rally of youthful supporters in Paris March 19, Sarkozy firmly defended the controversial "national identity" dimension of his new immigration ministry proposal. Sarkozy delivered another of his signature, energetic and thought-through, political speeches; glossing over the traditional focus of French national identity on shared language and culture, he emphasized shared conviction about the political principles of the French Republic. Drawing inspiration from an American model, Sarkozy evoked Martin Luther King, saying, "I too have a dream that one day all the children whose families have been French for generations, and all the children of immigrants can sit together at the table of French fraternity." Royal: Many Jarred by "Constituent Assembly" Suggestion -------------- -------------- ¶7. (U) Also on March 19, before a gathering of Socialist Party (PS) elected officials, Royal highlighted a series of institutional reforms that, she suggested, would add up to a "Sixth Republic." Among the key features of her reform package for France's political institutions are strengthening the powers of the legislature to better balance those of the executive, limiting the French practice of allowing politicians to hold several elective offices simultaneously, and introducing a measure of proportionality in the voting system used to select members of parliament. Royal brought these reform proposals to the fore to counter the rising popularity of centrist Francois Bayrou, who has also proposed amending France's constitutional framework along similar lines. Perhaps trying to outdo Bayrou, Royal went so far as to say that she was prepared to convene a "constituent assembly8 to pass the reforms if necessary. Even many supporters found her proposal of a constitutional convention a bit extreme, and critics jumped on the suggestion to raise questions about her "political judgment." ¶8. (U) Spokespersons immediately tried to walk back Royal's "constituent assembly" suggestion, not least out of worry that no consensus exists among the French public (or in the Socialist Party) for undertaking far-reaching changes to the constitution of the Fifth Republic, but also because no one believes that France is facing the kind of existential crisis for which a constituent assembly would be the appropriate remedy. (Note: There are two ways to amend the constitution. Changes approved by the National Assembly and Senate can then be adopted by both houses meeting "in congress," or they can be adopted by national referendum, once approved by both houses. If elected, Royal would face the opposition of a Senate that will continue to be dominated by a center-right majority, and the uncertainty of how voters might react to a referendum. There are only four instances of constituent assemblies -- the equivalent of a constitutional convention -- in modern French history (1789, 1848, 1875, and 1945),each time when France faced existential crises. End note.) Bayrou: Still Succeeding (Though Poll Numbers Stall) -------------- -------------- ¶9. (U) Francois Bayrou received a warm welcome during a tour of a poor, largely immigrant suburban neighborhood near Paris on March 20. "I am not naturally a candidate of the suburbs," Bayrou admitted during his walk down a local market street in the suburb of Mantes La Jolie. "My constituency is rural -- but I am here," he added. Bayrou's campaign stroll generated reams of favorable press coverage the following day, with several commentators noting that rival Nicolas Sarkozy had yet to set foot in an immigrant suburb for fear of sparking, possibly violent, demonstrations against him. (Note: Sarkozy's campaign put out a statement that he has visited poor suburbs at least 500 times as Interior Minister. End note.) On March 21 Bayrou went on to hold the largest rally of his campaign so far. Speaking to an overflow -- and boisterous -- crowd at a venue in Paris better known for rock concerts than centrist party political rallies, Bayrou displayed his peculiar brand of fence-straddling as he successfully lambasted both Sarkozy and Royal. Sounding very much like a leftist, Bayou blasted Sarkozy as "a friend of billionaires" who is intent on "imposing the American model" on France. Sounding very much like a rightist, Bayrou derided Royal as a lightweight who would diminish France by "imposing the Finnish model." Bayrou's multiple references to his humble, rural roots (he grew up on his father's horse farm in southwestern France) were heartily applauded by his enthusiastic, Parisian supporters. Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm STAPLETON