Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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07PANAMA815 | 2007-05-17 22:23:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Panama |
VZCZCXYZ0028 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHZP #0815/01 1372223 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 172223Z MAY 07 FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0402 INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC |
.C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000815 |
1. (C) Democratic Change (CD) leader Ricardo Martinelli continued to lead the polls among Panamanian presidential aspirants, CD VP Roberto Henriquez told POLCOUNS on May 17. Henriquez later provided POLCOUNS a copy of a private CID Gallup poll conducted for CD in May that showed Martinelli leading in six different prospective multi-candidate races. "Unless his numbers fall dramatically, below ten percent, Martinelli will run," Henriquez said. Regarding a possible opposition interparty primary, he said that the CD was already unified behind its candidate, was prepared to enter into unity discussions with others in the opposition, but did not contemplate participating in such an interparty primary at this time. -------------------------- Martinelli Wins in Six Scenarios -------------------------- 2. (C) The May 2007 CID Gallup poll conducted privately for CD asked voters to choose their preferred candidate in each of six scenarios. The scenarios were designed to test Martinelli's strength against different governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) candidates in different 2, 3 and 4 candidate scenarios. The results of which are as follows: Scenario 1: (3-way race against Navarro and Endara) -------------------------- Guillermo Endara (Moral Vanguard of the Country - VMP): 19.3 percent Juan Carlos Navarro (Democratic Revolutionary Party -PRD): 23.7 percent Ricardo Martinelli (CD): 30.9 percent None: 20.8 percent Did Not Know/Respond: 5.4 percent Scenario 2: (4-way race against Endara, Navarro, and Varela -------------------------- Endara: 18.3 percent Navarro: 23.0 percent Martinelli: 30.9 percent Juan Carlos Varela (Panamenista Party): 4.4 percent None: 19.1 percent Did Not Know/Respond: 4.3 percent Scenario 3: (4-way race against Endara, Varela, and Herrera) -------------------------- Endara: 17.8 percent Martinelli: 31.4 percent Varela: 7.5 percent Balbina Herrera (PRD): 19.2 percent None: 19.8 percent Did Not Know/Respond: 4.2 percent Scenario 4: (4-way race against Endara, Varela, and Perez Balladares) -------------------------- Endara: 20.0 percent Martinelli: 34.7 percent Varela: 8.6 percent Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares (PRD): 3.5 percent None: 28.1 percent Did Not Know/Respond: 5.1 percent Scenario 5: (4-way race against Endara, Varela, and Lewis) -------------------------- Endara: 20.0 percent Martinelli: 35.0 percent Varela: 10.6 percent Samuel Lewis (PRD): 2.7 percent None: 27.6 percent Did Not Know/Respond: 4.1 percent Scenario 6: (Head-to-head race against Navarro) -------------------------- Navarro: 28.4 percent Martinelli: 37.3 percent None: 28.6 percent Did Not Know/Respond: 5.7 3. (C) Henriquez asserted that the results of this poll tracked closely with the results of a similar parallel poll contracted privately by CD with Borges and Associates, though he did not share this poll with POLCOUNS. Current Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro (PRD) would be by far the strongest PRD candidate that Martinelli could face, Henrique noted, but Navarro was not President Martin Torrijos' preferred successor. Navarro would need to turn his back on Torrijos but still maintain PRD party unity in order to make a run for the presidency. Torrijos' preferred successor, current First VP and FM Samuel Lewis, only polled 2.7 percent and was out polled by respondents who indicated, "None." Henriquez was dismissive of the prospect that current Minister of Housing Balbina Herrera would run for president. "Balbina will win in a walk to be the next mayor of Panama City," he said, though he conceded that a Lewis-Herrera ticket (with Herrera as vice presidential candidate) would be a formidable ticket. Ultimately, the PRD's presidential candidate would start the campaign from a base of at least thirty percent in the polls, Henriquez conceded. Henriquez said that the most surprising result of the poll was Endara's strength: "He's a stone in our shoe, sapping support that would otherwise go to Martinelli." -------------------------- CD Not Interested in Interparty Primary -------------------------- 4. (C) While noting that the CD had not closed the door to an interparty primary, Henriquez said that it was not in Martinelli's interest to participate in an interparty primary. Martinelli still came out ahead in 3- and 4-way races, and "We are united behind Martinelli while the Panamenistas are in disarray and Patriotic Union (UP) has no candidate." Ultimately, Endara had to secure the endorsement of the Panamenistas if he were to have any viability as a candidate. For most Panamenistas, the interparty primary was viewed as a way to ensure that the Panamenista Party -- Panama's largest opposition party -- would hold the top of the ticket since under the interparty primary rules only voters who were registered with a party could participate, unregistered voters could not. Henriquez explained that ultimately Panamanian Presidential elections were determined by the 60 percent of voters who were not registered. Though the CD was small party (about 86,000 members), he argued that Martinelli, who positioned himself as a new kind of politician who sought to contrast himself with the traditional party leaders in the PRD and the Panamenista parties, appealed strongly to independent voters and secured significant support from other parties' loyalists as well. For Varela, Henriquez asserted, the interparty primary was a mechanism to move the Panamenista party towards acceptance of a non-Panamenista at the top of the ticket. Henriquez confided that Martinelli and Varela had been in discussions regarding collaboration that would ceded the vice presidential spot to Varela. Finally, Henriquez also complained that the interparty primary process drew out the election campaign timeline and drained the opposition of energy and resources. First, parties would have to hold nationwide primaries, and then the opposition would need to hold a nationwide interparty primary. "These primaries and the interparty primary would be expensive," Henriquez said. "They will drain the opposition of money and energy, and it will be difficult to regain sufficient strengthen to be able to taken on the PRD machine eight months after the interparty primary." -------------------------- Comment -------------------------- 5. (C) "Of course, I'll share this poll with you," Henriquez told POLCOUNS. "It contains great news for us." Clearly elated that Martinelli consistently scored 30 percent or higher in these polls -- especially the head-to-head poll against Navarro -- Henriquez believed that Martinelli remained strong and should continue to prepare to run alone though remain open to forming a unity coalition with others in the opposition. "Martinelli will have to come around to the fact that he will have to participate in the interparty primary," Panamenista Vice President Fernando Arias told POLCOUNS on May 16. "That's the only way he would be able to harness the Panamenistas' nationwide machine." Arias and others in the opposition believe that Martinelli has reached the upper limits of his popularity and that he will begin to fall in the polls. For the time being though, Martinelli remains a significant force in the Panama's opposition, a force with which other opposition leader will need to come to terms. EATON |