PANAMA: MARTINELLI CONTINUES TO LEAD POLLS

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 001856 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PM SUBJECT: PANAMA: MARTINELLI CONTINUES TO LEAD POLLS Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Democratic Change (CD) Party President and presidential candidate Ricardo Martinelli continues to lead the polls in all respects, according to a November 2007 poll conducted by Panama's leading pollster, Dichter and Neira. Overall, the GOP gets a neutral to somewhat negative approval rating. Martinelli leads the polls at 26.7 percent in the open question, asking respondents for whom they would vote for president. In a closed question with six options, Martinelli outpaces governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) member and Minister of Housing Balbina Herrera by nearly 20 points (36.6 to 16.8 percent). Interestingly though, in a series of hypothetical races, PRD member and Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro presents the most significant challenge to Martinelli closing to within about 1.5 percent of Martinelli's lead and slashing Martinelli's rating in the polls from nearly 40 percent to about 20 percent. While the common wisdom on the street, a wisdom accepted by Martinelli, is that Herrera will be the PRD presidential candidate, Martinelli could be surprised to find himself in a horse race against Navarro if Herrera follows through and keeps her word that she will not run for president, but rather mayor of Panama City (SEPTEL). End summary. -------------- Technical Data -------------- ¶2. (SBU) This poll was conducted nationally in all of Panama's provinces, but not in Panama's indigenous people's reservations (comarcas). The sample included 1,214 face-to-face interviews. Normally, Dichter and Neira re-interviews a small portion of the original sample, but, as of when this poll was acquired, post does not know what the margin of error of this poll is assessed to be. Dichter and Neira's polls usual have a margin of error of 3 to 4 percent and are widely considered to be the most reliable polls in Panama. For the purposes of this cable, the statistics cited below refer to totals for individual questions, not subtotals broken down by region, age, income or party affiliation. ¶3. (C) This poll was obtained by POLCOUNS from Martinelli on December 6. While post does not know the actual dates on which this poll was conducted, CD VP Roberto Henriquez and close Martinelli advisor Jimmy Papademetriu indicated separately to POLCOUNS that this poll was conducted over the course of 7 days in the second half of November. This poll has been shared with State's WHA/CEN and INR/IAA. Post has high confidence that Martinelli has not tampered with these results as they track 100 percent with portions of this same poll that post has seen elsewhere. -------------- Evaluating the GOP's Performance -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Overall, the GOP gets a neutral to somewhat negative approval rating. Asked how they would rate the Torrijos Administration, nearly as many rated the Torrijos Administration as "good" (38.7 percent) as "bad" (39.2 percent) and 13.6 percent rated it as "very bad." Asked to rate the direction of in which the country was headed on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 indicates "totally mistaken" and 5 indicates "totally correct," 39.0 percent rated the direction as 3, or neutral, and 16.6 percent rated it as a 2 and 22.4 as a 1. In a closed question asking interviewees to select from a list of "entities or organizations," interviewees cited that the following were principally responsible for unemployment: the government (81 percent), the politicians (56 percent),the businessmen (55 percent), the political parties (37 percent),and President Martin Torrijos (29 percent). The top three causes of insecurity cited by interviewees were: unemployment (33.6 percent), drugs (13.7 percent),and poverty (10.7 percent). -------------- The Presidential Race -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The Open Question: Martinelli leads the polls at 26.7 percent in the open question, "If the 2009 elections were held today, for whom would you vote for President of the Republic?" More than 15 points behind him, his closest competition in this open questions is current Minister of Housing Balbina Herrera (11.7 percent) followed by Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro (9.7 percent),and Moral Vanguard of the Nation (VMP) Party President and former President Guillermo Endara (7.4 percent). After Endara, the numbers drop off steeply with Panamenista presidential contender Alberto Vallarino (3.5 percent),Panamanista Party President Juan Carlos Varela (2.4 percent),governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) member and former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares (2.2 percent), PRD member and First VP and FM Samuel Lewis (1.0 percent). ¶6. (SBU) The Closed Question: Presented only six options from whom to choose, interviewees gave Martinelli a substantial lead of nearly twenty points over Herrera. This list of what are widely perceived to be the most viable presidential contenders shook out as follows: Martinelli: 36.6 percent Herrera: 16.8 percent Navarro: 8.6 percent Endara: 6.8 percent Vallarino: 5.3 percent Varela: 1.8 percent. -------------- The Hypothetical Races -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The poll asked interviewees to indicate their choice in a series of hypothetical races. These hypothetical scenarios suggest that Martinelli's most significant challenger would be Navarro. Whereas Martinelli sustained support around or above 40 percent in the other three scenarios in which he was included as an option, when Navarro was included as an option that level of support was cut in half to 20 percent with Navarro only about a point and a half behind (18.6 percent). While Martinelli clobbered Endara 3 to 1 (46.7 percent to 15.1 percent) in a head-to-head race, Endara outpaced Navarro nearly 2 to 1 (27.2 percent to 14.6 percent). The results of these hypothetical races are shared here: Navarro: 20.0 percent Endara: 10.8 percent Varela: 3.8 percent Martinelli: 40.0 percent Don't Know/No Response: 25.5 percent Martinelli: 39.4 percent Herrera: 22.2 percent Endara: 10.5 percent Varela: 4.2 percent Don't know/No Response: 23.7 percent Vallarino: 5.7 percent Navarro: 18.6 percent Martinelli: 20.0 percent Endara: 11.2 percent Don't know/No Response: 24.5 percent Martinelli: 46.7 percent Endara: 15.1 percent Don't know/No Response: 38.2 percent Navarro: 14.6 percent Endara: 27.2 percent Don't know/No Response: 58.2 percent -------------- Martinelli Seen as Opposition Leader -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Far and away, Martinelli was identified as the current leader of the opposition with 37.3 citing him as such in an open question. Endara trailed over 20 points behind Martinelli at 14.3 percent. Pulling up the rear were: Varela (4.1 percent),former President Mireya Moscoso (3.2 percent),and Vallarino (2.4 percent)) -------------- Reactions to the Candidates -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Interviewees were also asked to comment regarding the image of various likely presidential candidates and political parties. Just looking at the top three responses (Note: There were often over a dozen responses.),these prospective candidates break out into two groups -- those with only positive reactions and those with mixed reactions: Overall positive reactions: -- Martinelli: good person (13.0 percent); worries about and wants to help people (11.6 percent); successful businessman (7.3 percent) -- Herrera: good person (23.1 percent); hardworking and responsible (15.8 percent); worries about and wants to help people (10.1 percent) Mixed reactions: -- Navarro: good, excellent at his work (21.9 percent); hardworking and responsible (6.5 percent); bad, does not fulfill expectations (4.7 percent) -- Endara: already too old, past his time (18.6 percent); was a good president, did a lot (7.9 percent); bad, does not fulfill expectations (7.0 percent) -- Varela: bad, does not fulfill expectations (7.7 percent); good, could be a good candidate (7.3 percent); businessman (5.5 percent) -- Vallarino: could be a good candidate (9.6 percent); businessman, banker (8.4 percent); bad, does work, does not fulfill expectations (5.8 percent) The most recurring negative reaction was "does not fulfill expectations." -------------- Reactions to the Parties -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Asked to provide their reactions to three parties, Martinelli's CD party gets generally positive reactions, thought the numbers barely break 10 percent. In contrast, the PRD and Panamenista parties enjoy a core of support for being good parties, but receive strong negative reactions as well. Overall positive reactions: -- CD: good, good party (10.1 percent); can help do something for the country, people (4.6 percent); helps the people, the poor (3.8 percent) Overall negative reactions: -- PRD: corrupt, dishonest (16.1 percent); excellent, good party (11.0 percent); bad, bad party, worst (9.7 percent) -- Panamenista: corrupt, dishonest (9.4 percent); bad, bad party, worst (7.2 percent); fight too much, not unified (6.2 percent) -------------- Perceptions of Martinelli -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The poll concluded by delving into perceptions of Martinelli. Majorities said that Martinelli was honest and not corrupt. Nearly two-thirds of respondents identified strongly with Martinelli's 2004 campaign slogan "Walking in the shoes of the people." Two-thirds also said that Martinelli was a leader. Slightly over two-thirds believed that Martinelli would fight for the interests of the people and that he was not a traditional politician. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) Martinelli, a compulsive poll maven, has significant reason to be content with this latest poll, but there is also a cautionary lesson to be learned from this poll. He is clearly identified in this poll as the opposition leader, generally perceived to be the preferred presidential option at this stage, and dominates the other opposition candidates. While the common wisdom on the street is that eventually Herrera will be the PRD presidential candidate -- a view Martinelli has told POLCOUNS that he shares -- were Navarro to be the PRD option instead, Martinelli would have a real horse race on his hands. If Herrera's assertions that she does not wish to run for president are since (SEPTEL) and Navarro becomes the PRD presidential candidate instead, Martinelli could be surprised and forced onto his heels until he adapts and strives to overcome. Finally, while Martinelli polls well, it remains to be seen whether Martinelli has indeed built the nationwide political machine necessary to mobilize his support. Martinelli has invested heavily in building such a machine, but it has yet to be tested. EATON