PANAMA: THE ITALIAN BUTCHER HIRES A CAMPAIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 001824 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PM SUBJECT: PANAMA: THE ITALIAN BUTCHER HIRES A CAMPAIGN MANAGER Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) "I have agreed to be campaign manager for Ricardo (Martinelli) starting full-time on January 1," Jimmy Papademetriu told POLCOUNS on November 27, though he said he would eschew the title "campaign manager" as it "paints a target on one's back." Papademetriu said that Patriotic Union (UP) party VP Anibal Galindo was actively working to promote Martinelli's campaign while Galindo's co-VP, Jose Raul Mulino was working actively for Panamenista candidate Alberto Vallarino and UP President Guillermo "Billy" Ford had declared he would run for president. As campaign manager, Papademetriu said he would first be working to get Martinelli to do more outreach to key movers and shakers in the opposition with the goal of "getting people comfortable with him." "The one thing heavy hitter Panamanians fear the most is that the next president won't answer their calls," Papademetriu explained. "I need to break down that fear and help assure them that Martinelli will take their calls and that they can work with him." Papademetriu also provided some insights into what makes Martinelli tick. End summary. -------------- Coalition Building Underway in Opposition -------------- ¶2. (C) Patriotic Union (UP) co-VP "Anibal Galindo is actively working with Martinelli," Papademetriu said. "He is proposing that a team from UP and a team from Democratic Change (CD) work up a series of seven to ten position papers. This joint effort would be one step toward a coalition." Papademetriu was not confident though that Galindo could sell this proposal to UP. Meanwhile, UP co-VP "Jose Raul Mulino is definitely on (Panamamenista party prospective presidential candidate) Alberto Vallarino's team." UP President Guillermo "Billy" Ford's announcement that he would run for president was intended to keep a lid on UP's VPs' jockeying for position. "Patriotic Union is definitely in play." Martinelli, in addition to working with Galindo, was reaching out to "puppet master" Samuel "Don Sammy" Lewis Galindo, the quasi-leader emeritus of UP. According to Papademetriu, Don Sammy was like a horse owner who showed up to the track with two of his own horses -- nephew First VP and FM and PRD presidential prospect Samuel Lewis Navarro and son-in-law and Panamenista Party presidential prospect Alberto Vallarino -- but was not really satisfied that either would win. "The Lewises had a family meeting and the decision was made that Sam was out and the family would support Alberto." (Note: Post has heard rumors that Don Sammy, patriarch of the Lewis clan, hosted such a meeting, but has no confirmation as to whether such a decision was made.) Believing that there was considerable doubt that Vallarino was fully committed to the race, Papademetriu said, Martinelli was trying to urge Don Sammy to place his bet on him. ¶3. (C) "Ricardo needs to do more outreach. He needs to make people comfortable with him. The one thing heavy hitter Panamanians fear the most is that the next president won't answer their calls," Papademetriu explained. "Ricardo needs to dispel that fear." Noting that Vallarino and Martinelli had recently completed a joint land deal, Papademetriu said that in the coming months Martinelli would seek to seal an undisclosed number of business deals in which he would be the minority partner. "He's gotten a bad rap for being somebody with whom it's difficult to do business and to make money," Papademetriu acknowledged. "I want to be able to show that the movers and shakers in Panama can do business with Martinelli." As for the persistent whisper campaign that Martinelli was "bipolar" and "on lithium," Papademetriu said, "Martinelli is the classic Italian butcher who likes to come out from behind the counter to talk politics with his customers. His manner is brash and direct. Some people interpret that as crazy." Noting that he was working on polishing Martinelli's image, Papademetriu said he had sent Martinelli to public speaking classes with a consultant in New York, something he hoped to be able to continue. Also, he said that he would be working to find the best types of formats and venues in which Martinelli would appear the most natural and at ease. -------------- Internal CD Dynamics -------------- ¶4. (C) "Democratic Change is dead if Martinelli loses," Papademetriu said. CD VP Roberto Henriquez was the only one really interested in the party as an institution; "He'd make a good Secretary General. I've been encouraging Ricardo to give Roberto that job." Noting the need to open up Martinelli's circle of advisors, Papademetriu said, "Most of these guys around him work for him and are on his payroll." Ricardo Quijano, administrative and logistics man, came to work for Martinelli after failing in the shrimp business. Economic Advisor and CD Treasurer Frank de Lima, Papademetriu's roommate at Boston University, worked his way up from a job in the Super99 grocery chain from "a job I got him." CD VP and political advisor Roberto argues well on radio and television, but he never delivers the "take away message we want to get out there; he's a stuffed shirt." Papademetriu, however, did not provide any insight into the kinds of new advisors to which he would like to introduce Martinelli. -------------- Insight into Martinelli the Person -------------- ¶5. (C) "Martinelli is a micromanager," Papademetriu explained. "He wants to know how thinly the salami is being sliced and on what shelf the bread is being displayed." Brash and confident, Martinelli also did not like being around older people, preferring to hang out with younger individuals. "Look at his close advisors. Look at me. We're all young." He was coachable and open to new ideas. Not wanting to feel like he was dying was one of the reasons for his relationship with his mistress, Aurora Muradas, Papademetriu asserted. Asked whether Martinelli would ever contemplate pulling out of the race, Papademetriu said, "Absolutely not. He could be at zero percent in the polls, and he would still spend millions on his campaign." He said he believed that Vallarino's strategy to create a sense of inevitability about his candidacy so that he could negotiate businessman-to-businessman to get Martinelli to step down lest a divided opposition lose to the PRD was fanciful. Martinelli was worth in the neighborhood of USD 150 to 200 million, most of which was tied up in land, and was willing to spend a significant amount of his own money on his campaign. "He spent USD six million last time he ran." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) It is no surprise to post that Martinelli intends to run and is unlikely to step down. In hiring his campaign manager, Martinelli has taken the first step towards establishing a formal campaign structure. His willingness to take speech classes belies reputation as a brash and headstrong multimillionaire businessman. Additionally, his willingness to engage "old timers" like Don Sammy and to conduct missionary work to put movers and shakers at ease when he would rather run with the young and fun crowd suggest that Martinelli is amenable to coaching. As Vallarino has been ramping up his political activities, Martinelli has become more isolated within an opposition where the Panamenista Party remains the largest force. His outreach is also therefore an effort to break down this isolation, promote his candidacy, and remain on top of the polls. EATON