LIBERAL ENVIRONMENT CRITIC SHARES VIEWS ON CLIMATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000351 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA, G, OES, EB WHITE HOUSE FOR CEQ DOE FOR P&I EPA FOR OFFICE OF THE ADMINISTRATOR AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV PINR CA SUBJECT: LIBERAL ENVIRONMENT CRITIC SHARES VIEWS ON CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE REF: OTTAWA 0050 Sensitive But Unclassified. Not for release outside USG channels. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Liberal MP and environment critic David McGuinty (younger brother of Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty) has substantial experience on economic and environmental issues at the national and international levels and appears a formidable opponent to counter Tory environment Minister John Baird in the battle for Canadian hearts and minds on the environment and climate change. The former IVP participant appears well-disposed to the United States and recognizes American leadership at all levels, public and private, in addressing the climate change challenge. He thinks the Tory government's efforts to sell itself as "green" and a responsible steward of the environment will soon founder and implied the Liberals are ready to see the government fall over the budget. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) ECON Minister-Counselor and Econ Specialist met with Ottawa-South Member of Parliament David McGuinty on February ¶21. McGuinty, a fluently bilingual environmental and natural resources lawyer, is articulate and extremely knowledgeable about the environment. First elected to Parliament in June 2004 and then again in January 2006, the 47-year old McGuinty looks like a perfect choice as Opposition Environment critic, a position to which he was named in late January 2007. ¶3. (U) A former IVP participant - he was just starting his program in Washington on 9/11 - McGuinty praised the program and his experience in it; in particular he told us he was astounded to see first-hand how the interplay between industry, think tanks and governments in the United States enriches the policy process. He praised the efforts of a range of public and private actors, including the federal government, in addressing climate change; and he is well aware the United States spends significantly more on climate change S&T and multilateral environmental efforts than any other country. McGuinty clearly is well-informed on, understands, and respects the environmental leadership shown by the United States over the past 30 years. ¶4. (U) Before his election to Parliament McGuinty was president (from 1995 to 2003) of the National Roundtable on the Environment and the Economy, a body created by the GoC in 1988 to examine the environmental and economic implications of high-priority issues such as climate change and to offer advice on how best to reconcile the sometimes competing interests of economic prosperity and environmental conservation. During his tenure, he led the development of Canada's Environment and Sustainable Development Indicators. ¶5. (SBU) McGuinty agreed with EMIN's observation that Canada had little reason to crow about its climate change "successes" under the Liberals, particularly as enumerated by then Prime Minister Martin as he disparaged the U.S. as lacking moral fiber at the UNFCCC COP 11 in Montreal in November 2005. (Canada,s current GHG emissions are approximately 760 megatonnes per year, or about 35 percent, over its Kyoto target of 563 Mt). He said that Martin's remarks were a sign of a "drowning man" knowing he was in electoral trouble. Nevertheless, McGuinty claimed that then Environment Minister Stephane Dion's "Green Plan" of June 2005 did constitute a substantive policy framework that would have yielded solid results had the Liberals retained power. Qhave yielded solid results had the Liberals retained power. He noted specifically that in late 2005 the GoC had negotiated a 45 megatonne reduction in GHG emissions from "Large Final Emitters" (i.e., major point source emitters such as power plants and cement plants) which would have yielded its reductions in the 2008 to 2012 timeframe. These plans were discarded when the Tories took power in February ¶2006. McGuinty added that it was clear to all observers the incoming Tory government did not take climate change, or the environment more broadly, seriously when they came into office and only began to react when polls showed the electorate making the environment (with Kyoto as a proxy) a top of mind issue (see reftel). ¶6. (SBU) McGuinty thinks that the electorate will see soon the Harper government has "no substance" to offer on the environment. In particular he thinks the electorate will see OTTAWA 00000351 002 OF 002 the Tory promise of C$1.5 billion for the provinces (C$350 million for Quebec alone) for climate change and environmental initiatives as a tellingly tiny investment for a government that can expect a C$15-plus billion surplus this fiscal year. (The Liberal Green Plan of 2005 promised C$3 billion for similar efforts, he told us). In addition, formally announcing this funding in the March 19 federal budget, just a week before the Quebec provincial elections on March 26, is a blatantly political roll of the dice, and McGuinty estimates the Bloc Quebecois may in fact oppose the budget despite this multi-million dollar enticement. He intimated the Liberals and NDP are thinking along similar lines. Finally, he told us that that when Bill C-30, the Climate Change Act, emerges from its Parliamentary committee re-draft at the end of March (assuming the government does not fall on the budget vote) it will be "unrecognizable" when compared with the Conservatives' original proposal. And, he concluded, it would be in perfect symmetry with Bill C-288, the Liberal "Kyoto" compliance bill that has passed the House of Commons and is now in the Senate. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: McGuinty is forceful, knowledgeable and authoritative, and seems to provide the Liberals with a good foil to new Environment Minister Baird. Nonetheless, his comments on Tory efforts to combat climate change broke no new ground and contained little that would not be expected in what has become a highly politicized debate. What was noteworthy was McGuinty's suggestion the Liberals are still looking seriously at using the budget to force the government to fall this spring. In light of these comments, it is perhaps significant that he made no mention of Stephane Dion's leadership abilities and obvious connection to the environment and climate change files. End Comment. Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa WILKINS