U.S.-CANADA POLICY PLANNING TALKS: AFGHANISTAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 002233

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV CA AF PK XB XL XM XK
SUBJECT: U.S.-CANADA POLICY PLANNING TALKS: AFGHANISTAN,
THE AMERICAS, ASIA, AND TRANSFORMATIONAL DIPLOMACY

Classified By: DCM Terry Breese, reasons 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) Summary: U.S. and Canadian Policy Planners met
November 29-30 to discuss the broad strategic outlook over
the next 25 years (with specific reference to the National
Intelligence Council's 2020 and 2025 projects) and a range
of international and regional issues that represent policy
priorities for both countries and opportunities for closer
collaboration. Both sides agreed on the importance of
continued cooperation in Afghanistan, particularly with
respect to the border, NATO burdensharing, and the work of
the senior international coordinator. Regarding the
Americas, the discussion focused on new openness to outside
initiatives in Mexico, the continued fragility of the
Caribbean, and the need to maintain focus on strengthening
the democratic charter in the OAS. Canadian policy planners
expressed a desire to continue to coordinate closely as
events unfold in Cuba, even though our approaches there
differ, and indicated that Canada would follow the U.S. lead
on the issue of Asian architecture and North Korea. Canadian
participants conveyed interest in comparing notes in greater
detail with the U.S. and UK on the issues
surrounding transformational diplomacy, noting the sometimes
varying approaches with which we face similar challenges.
End Summary


2. (SBU) S/P Director Dr. David Gordon met November 29-30 in
Montreal with Assistant Deputy Minister for Strategic
Policy Drew Fagan in annual Policy Planning talks. Also in
attendance on the U.S. side were S/P Deputy Director
William McIlhenny, S/P Member (Asia) James Green, DCM Terry
Breese, and Deputy Pol/C Keith Mines. Accompanying Fagan
were Graham Shantz, Director General of the Policy Planning
Bureau, Ron Garson, Director of Policy Planning, and Sarah
Fountain Smith, Director of the U.S.-Canada Relations Bureau.


AFGHANISTAN -- BURDENSHARING, BORDER, AND INT. COORDINATOR
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Fagan provided an overview of Canada's fiscal,
political, and strategic calculus in the Afghan mission.
Canada has already spent over C$3 billion in Afghanistan
since 2002 and lost 74 lives, but in general the government
feels positive about the progress there. He explained that
the Afghan mission has changed the way Canadians see
international engagement; the pride Canadians feel in the
mission and the popularity of Chief of Staff General
Hillier is something that Canada has not seen in decades.
Fagan said it will continue to be a difficult mission
politically, however, and managing public support will be a
constant challenge. Even among the 50% of the populace
that supports the mission, there is the sense that Canada has
simply done enough now and it is time to pass the mission off
to another NATO ally. Shantz suggested that a key question
for Canada goes beyond Afghanistan; policy
makers are asking the question "what is NATO for if not
this?" The strategic challenge as Canadians see it is that
the NATO Afghan mission is a series of short-term commitments
with extensive caveats, making long-term progress difficult
to ensure. It will be devastating for NATO as an
Qto ensure. It will be devastating for NATO as an
organization if it cannot succeed there. Both sides agreed
that in Afghanistan the whole is less than the sum of the
parts.


4. (C) There was several areas where the two sides agreed
there should be close collaboration on Afghanistan. First,
is on the Afghan-Pakistan border, a special interest of
Canada's because of its responsibility for Kandahar province.
Canada has been active in developing new programs and
infrastructure to help secure the border and is looking at
new approaches to economic development there. Canada
appreciates our help to date and seeks close collaboration on
this key initiative. Second is shaping the mandate and
getting the right person as Senior International Coordinator.
Canada recently brought in Paddy Ashdown to discuss his
experience in the Balkans and how the lessons learned there
could be adapted to pulling together the various
international players to increase synergy in Afghanistan.
Canada could be a valuable ally on this issue. Third is in
pushing for greater burden-sharing among NATO allies. Canada
has the credibility among NATO middle powers of supporting

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the mission despite rising casualties and its voice in
pushing for greater troop levels and fewer caveats could
resonate.

THE HEMISPHERE -- SEEKING SYNERGY
--------------


5. (C) Fagan said the government's current foreign policy
could be couched as the triple A's -- the Arctic,
Afghanistan, and the Americas. He gave an overview of how
the shift in attention to the Western Hemisphere is playing
out, including new emphasis on free trade negotiations,
increases in engagement with Latin American leaders, a new
hemispheric security initiative, and shifts in foreign aid to
the region. The increase in emphasis on Latin America,
Fagan said, has been controversial domestically because it is
seen as a zero sum game with Africa. But Fagan opined that
this is largely an elite controversy and does not play out in
public opinion.


6. (C) Fountain Smith commented on some areas where there may
be room for further collaboration in the hemisphere. First
is Mexico, where Canada is working on small engagement
projects to help improve governance. The willingness of
Mexico to accept security help from the U.S. is a major shift
that Canada has noted. There may be other areas for Canada
to engage with Mexico in the future and, given the scale of
our commitment, we should cooperate closely. Second is the
Caribbean, which figured prominently in Prime Minister
Harper's July trip. There are long-standing historical ties
between Canada and the Caribbean, and Ottawa is trying to
increase its engagement there. Shantz emphasized that many
Caribbean countries are more fragile than they appear, and
Fountain Smith noted the toxic mix of security deportees
returning to the region after engaging in criminal activity
in North American while the best and brightest are drawn off
to the U.S. and Canada to live. Canada has a variety of aid,
educational, and governance programs there, with a special
emphasis on Haiti. Third are the areas where Canada is being
drawn into trilateral engagement with countries such as
Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay, who want to partner on
development and democratization projects in the region,
especially in Haiti. There may be areas for close
coordination with us on this. Fourth, the Canadian side
agreed with our assessment that we need to try to keep the
democratic charter energized at the OAS.

CUBA -- COORDINATING OUR DIVERGENCE
--------------


7. (C) Fagan briefly outlined Canada's Cuba policy, which is
a two-tracked approach to engage with the government
while also reaching out to students and dissidents. Canada
is pleased with the level of talks we have had on Cuba and
finds value in continuing to discuss and coordinate our
divergent approaches. Fagan said Canada was pleased with
the outcome of the OAS General Assembly, noting U.S. support
for an opening on NGOs and Canada's efforts to
bolster the role of civil society in support of the
Democratic Charter. Fagan suggested that we continue to
work together to find ways to operationalize and systematize
engagement with civil society, and to continue
to inject "high-level oxygen" into the mix that will put
Qto inject "high-level oxygen" into the mix that will put
pressure on the Cuban regime.

ASIA -- TAKING THE U.S. LEAD
--------------


8. (C) Fagan said there was concern in the Prime Minister's
Office about the "profusion of architecture" in Asia, but
DFAIT's message to the PM has been to use APEC as a one-stop
shop -- the opportunity to engage broadly in an efficient
way. Canada considers U.S. engagement in APEC to be critical
for North America, and our interlocutors warmly welcomed the
U.S. commitment to APEC. Canada is looking, Fagan said, for
free trade deals in Asia and is in the middle of negotiations
with Singapore, South Korea, and Vietnam. On North Korea,
Canada is watching closely to see how the situation unfolds,
and will work in support of our efforts there.

TRANSFORMING DIPLOMACY
--------------

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9. (C) The two sides engaged in a discussion of how we are
reorganizing our foreign assistance, diplomatic
deployment, and inter-agency integration to manage the new
global challenges. The Canadians were very interested in
our explanation of recent changes in foreign assistance,
which are driven by the same challenges they face, and our
effort to reposition diplomats where they can do the most
good. Canada, Fagan said, is engaged in a major redeployment
exercise of its own to get more of its officers overseas, but
to do so it has been involved in a
significant effort to better explain its role to the Cabinet.
He noted that Canada has also been comparing notes with the
British on these issues, and suggested that it might be
interesting to engage in trilateral discussions on lessons
learned and new approaches to a more active foreign policy.


10. (U) At a luncheon November 30 hosted by former Canadian
Ambassador to the U.S. Raymond Chretien, Dr. Gordon
discussed the methodology and purpose of the National
Intelligence Council's "Mapping the Global Future" project
with an invited group of fifteen prominent Canadian
academics. After reviewing U.S. perceptions of broad trends
over the next several decades, he engaged in a lengthy Q and
A session covering a wide range of foreign policy issues.
Later, Gordon met with U.S. Consul General Mary Marshall and
organizers of the annual "Conference de Montreal" economic
forum to discuss their summer 2008 program and prospective
U.S. participants.


11. (U) S/P has cleared this message.

Visit our shared North American Partnership blog (Canada & Mexico) at
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap

BREESE